The Super Bowl 52 Fan Spectrum: Patriots Edition
Every game has limitless possible results and no one can truly predict how it will go. In my super bowl preview posts I’ll explore four different expected results from the four main types of fans of each team. Each team’s fan base has The Cynic aka the Jynx, this fan knows that everything that could go wrong will and then some bad stuff will happen after that too; then there’s The Realist aka Mr./Mrs. Relative, to this fan it all evens out in the long run, we’ll get some calls, they’ll have some stuff go their way and hopefully we’re the last one standing; every fan base also has The Optimist aka the Die Hard, this fan could watch his team down 35 points going into the fourth quarter and still be holding out hope that they will pull out the miracle no one else expects; and finally every team has the wildcard fan, the one who can swing through the three previous fan types six to fifty times a game. The Wildcard fan is the first to decorate the interior of their new SUV with orange Bengal stripes and also the first to set it on fire following a home loss in week 5, they’ll consume enough gas station hot dogs to win the free limited edition plastic team cup for free rather than paying the $5.75 cost because they know true fandom, like food poisoning, is rare and earned by those deserving of it. In this edition I’ll explore the four Patriot fan plot theories for their super bowl showdown with Philadelphia.
First up, The Realist, it’s the least interesting so let’s get it out of the way. The Realist Patriot fan knows exactly what to expect going into the super bowl. Belichick will take away Foles' quick outlet passes on all RPO (Run-Pass Option) plays forcing the eagles to rely on a mediocre at best run game. Now the average rushing statistics may have you thinking “hold on, what’s mediocre about a rush attack that averaged 4.5 yards per carry and 132 yards per game?” Granted, yes, those are some great overarching figures for sure, enough to make Philadelphia third overall in each category for the regular season, but if you watched the lion’s share of eagles games this season they had an eerily similar pattern: get off to a quick start, brutalize the other team with defensive strength accompanied by a multiple score deficit before they realized what happened and then run the clock out with controlled drives primarily around run schemes. These game waster drives did two things demoralize their opponent and bloat the run stats for them, except for in one key area: rushing touchdowns. Guess where the Eagles rank in rushing scores? I’ll give you a hint the only teams to finish below them were: Denver, Tampa Bay, Houston, Cincinnati, NY Giants (who managed to draft the only non-All Star from Clemson in the past two years as a RB), Arizona (without DJ), Miami (where Philly took Jay Ajayi from) and Seattle (who may have used more RBs than the rest of the league put together). The Eagles finished 24th with only 9 rushing TDs all season! That tells any realistic fan, when the Eagles have to run it or in this case are forced to run it when it really counts, they don’t do so well.
However, do not forget the realist is a balanced fan. He also, just last week, watched a Philadelphia Defense spark their offense to life and also take quite a bit of pressure off them by scoring not one but two TDs while Nick Foles and company were chewing quench gum and squeezing hot hands packs on the sidelines. The Realistic Pats fan knows it may take some time for the Patriots to surgically maneuver the ball down the field on this Eagles D, a blowout is unlikely for sure and luckily the Pats have a man under center who seldom commits a catastrophic mistake especially in big moments.
The Realistic Pats fan is certain of 2 things, 1) Brady is going to be Brady and 2) Belichick is going to make opponents play with plan B and if plan B for the Eagles is running it in critical situations its nothing but realistic to think the Patriots dynasty gets a little more dynastic. The Realist predicts a Pats victory 27-17.
Next let’s cover the Cynic’s take on the game. It’s hard to imagine any Cynical Patriots fans exist especially after you figure the Atlanta Collapse last year would have done to them what the ice age did to the dinosaurs but for the sake of this post we’ll say that cynicism like life, just finds a way. The Cynic will spend the final week leading up to the super bowl scouring WebMD and hitting up medical chat rooms focused on the healing of thumb and palm tissue and skin. They are convinced that Brady’s hand will cause some issue to cost the Patriots a sixth Lombardi trophy. Even if his hand is fine come kickoff after the first sack they’ll assume some further injury has occurred because let’s be honest even the most cynical Pats fan knows only two things can defeat them, injuries and the very suspect defense they’ve been able to smoke screen for the better part of the season. Sure it may not be ALL smoke and mirrors but even sleight of hand is considered a skill and Bill Belichick can misdirect an audience as well if not better than David Blaine. I submit to you that the convergence of two trends in the latter part of this season has helped New England’s defense look better than the unmitigated disaster it appeared to be in the first five weeks of the season.
Trend 1: Bad to mediocre at best QB opponents
Since October 15, 2017 this is the list of QBs New England’s defense has faced:
-Josh “I coulda been a contenda” McCown (NYJ)
-Matt “this is not the MVP you’re looking for” Ryan (ATL)
-Philip Rivers (LAC)
-Brock Cost-weiler (DEN)
-Derek “channeling my brother” Carr (OAK)
-Matt “Please, No no no” Moore (MIA)
-Tyrod Taylor (BUF) x2
-Jay Cutler, who likely played the game of his career (MIA)
-Big Ben (PIT)
-Bryce what a Petty (NYJ)
They followed that list up with postseason visits from Marcus “I’m in way over my head” Mariota and Blake “my name is already absurd so omit snappy comment” Bortles. The top three on the list, Ben, Rivers and Ryan put up 24, 13 and 7 respectively. At first glance that seems impressive to keep those top QBs that low but when they are the only truly talented QBs you face over a 14 week span is it really that impressive? Especially when I remind you that Antonio Brown missed half of that game, Atlanta’s offense looked truly good in two games all year and that wasn’t one of them, and the Chargers gave up two turnovers and a safety and couldn’t find a way to beat NE when they had to kick 4 field goals! Is that really impressive? They went 12-1 in that stretch of QB opponents.
By comparison, in weeks one through five they went 3-2 while facing Alex “Long Ball version” Smith, Drew “still got it” Brees, Deshaun “I’m gonna be the best ever” Watson, SuperCam Newton, and Jameis “Am I still famous?” Winston while giving up 42, 20, 33, 33 and 14 respectively (and that’s not even including the fifty missed field goals in the Tampa Bay game the Pats should have lost). Sooo, once again, the slate of QBs faced since mid-October, impressive? NAH.
Trend 2: McDaniels and Brady are the magician’s true assistant
While everyone will tell you about NE’s climb up the DVOA boards as the season went on I would label that a classic misdirect. The true magic is happening on methodical, run and short passing centered drives. The Patriots averaged just over 30 minutes in time of possession but with plenty of screen plays to Dion Lewis, flares to Rex Burkhead and crossing routes to their Co-gan-dola (their three headed WR who is just different speeds of the same guy) they more times than not methodically march down the field get twelve yards when they need ten, five when they need four and two when they need one. They especially love to do this on third down. Heck, they even got 19 when they needed 18 on a third down against Jacksonville which is the play Brady claimed turned the game around. It may take a half but the magician’s assistants will figure out ways to exploit this talented Philly defense helmed my Jim Schwartz, unless he learned a few tricks from his season in Buffalo in 2014 and has been waiting for just such an occasion to pull them out because that is what the Cynical Pats fan will expect.
The extreme Pats cynic foresees a Brady super bowl injury, leading to an unexpected end to the TB12 can I play forever storyline that has trumpeted loudly as the weekly chorus throughout this season as he departs the field for the last time. The Patriots squeeze in a TD with Hoyer under center on the drive Brady helmed to the 8 yard line but sadly that's the end of the good news and Philly goes on to win in comfortable fashion 32 - 10.
On to the Optimist’s view, which is easy. He buys into all the hype, so much so that he eats TB12 supplements daily. In the optimist’s eyes he couldn’t believe the Patriots would lose even if he saw it happen. The Patriots have the #1 DVOA after championship weekend, they have showcased a startlingly efficient run game and of course they have the GOAT! How could they lose? They’re playing Nick Foles, in only his sixth start this season, indoors, not against the hometown Vikings, and the Eagles Defense has been trash talking Brady for two weeks. The Die-Hard Optomist Pats fan doesn’t spend time worrying that the Eagles had a top ten defense against TEs that can hold Gronk in check or at least keep him from single-handedly beating them, or that they were #4 in takeaways. The Optimist Pats fan doesn’t need to hear anything about the team in green he’s convinced it will end Patriots 37 - Eagles 12.
What’s the wildcard patriots fan thoughts? Just this!
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