Post Pre-season Power Rankings
This post shows my power rankings for all 32 NFL teams as we begin the season as well as my predicted record for them come the end of the regular season. Just because a team has a higher predicted win record doesn’t always mean that team would beat a team with a lower number of wins. My power rankings show likelihood to end the season a top the mountain holding the Lombardi.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)
The slight hair thin margins between our top four teams really come down to tiny factors - weighing on Tampa Bay’s side here is mostly returning the same team again since the super bowl two years back including Tommy Boy and a new weapon, Julio Jones. It’s unlikely they’ll have the same rash of injuries that struck their WRs and CBs last season although their O-line is already testing that theory. The biggest factor pushing Tampa to my top spot is they hold the path of least resistance to a division title and thus a playoff berth. While our other top teams are facing challengers or a full blown game of thrones level gauntlet the Bucs have one mediocre challenger within their division. Let’s just call it the TB Neighborhood affect, as in “when he moves in, there goes the neighborhood (division).”
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
The reigning super bowl champs face a much tougher road to their division championship and a lingering QB arm injury and a turnover of key cogs like Von Miller and, OBJ and Bobby Trees could be troublesome barriers to a repeat of last year. That’s all without even mentioning the challenge a top five strength of schedule will pose.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
I know, I know, they lost Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce is getting old, the defense was terrible to below average last year, etc. This whole offseason has been a media blitz on the Chiefs crumbling kingdom. You know what hasn’t changed? Patrick Mahomes is still the QB, Andy Reid is still the head coach, Eric Bienemy is still the OC, Travis Kelce is still the top TE until proven otherwise, and they drafted and signed in free agency a variety of new weapons. Now one chink in their armor I am buying is they now must struggle through the toughest division in the league stacked from top to bottom with reconfigured teams full of talent. One of two things will happen for the AFC West division champs they will be honed and ready for any playoff challenge after triumphing the gauntlet of their division or they will have been beat up so bad by those six division battles they’ll crumble in January.
4. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Hopefully, the Bills will be in next season’s kickoff game as well, as the future Super Bowl 57 reigning champions unfurling their first championship banner, in this Bills fan’s opinion anyway! They have plenty of work to do to get there because they’re the only top five team on this list who has yet to prove they can finish the season as the last team standing. With a new OC eager to prove himself and continuity in nearly every facet of this roster including expanded depth at all but CB and O-line, there should be few things that prevent an extremely deep playoff run. The Mafia is eager for a February parade, so tables beware! If you're a Bills fan I'm sure you've already seen the Von Miller hype video but you know you want to watch it again.
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
I think the Ravens would’ve been a Super Bowl contender without the injury decimation of their roster last year. They lost their top three RBs before training camp even ended last year and Lamar struggled with injury and ended up missing six of the last eight games yet they only missed the playoffs by essentially one game. Lamar is still in an unresolved contract situation with the Ravens front office but that is not a source of concern because it's only a matter of when, not if, they finally ink him for the future. Fun nugget: the last time a Baltimore quarterback went into a season without a new extended contract and bet on themself to hit it big, they won a Super Bowl - Joe Flacco in 2013.
6. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Good quarterbacks need almost perfect systems of talent around them to lift them to a consistent winning level in the NFL, think Kirk Cousins and Trent Dilfer. Great QBs benefit from fellow talent around them and can get streaky in both good and bad ways, think Eli Manning or Joe Flacco. Elite quarterbacks elevate every one and any play/system CONSISTENTLY around them over the course of a career, think Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. That and that alone is enough for me to trust the Packers despite losing Davante Adams. Over the course of this season I expect we’ll see the next Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones evolve from the Packers present roster. Those were all pass catchers who Rodgers helped elevate to elite levels at their respective positions thanks to his surgical accuracy of ball placement and elite level quarterback play. I expect he will merely repeat this process again and one of his young pass catchers will benefit from a massive uptick in fantasy relevance and eventually a huge contract extension as a result.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
I know the trend is that the Bengals are the super bowl hangover, take a step back, team. It makes logical sense - harder schedule, tougher division foes (at least on paper thanks to less injuries on Baltimore), Zac Taylor still not respected as a head coach compared to many others, not to mention the trend of super bowl losers missing the playoffs the following year at a 50% clip since 2016. However, let me list my counterpoints:
The J-core: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon
Improved O-line, arguably their biggest weakness last year
Improved or at worse consistent defense
They get some of their hardest opponents at home this season (Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City) while also getting the Jets, Falcons and Panthers on their schedule as should win games
8. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Chargers seem to check all boxes and have received quite the hype heading into this season BUT similar to my Bills they have yet to ever prove they can finish the job and until I see it I won’t believe it. Also let's not forget the meltdowns last season against the injury ravaged Ravens, Bridgewater’s Broncos, THE TEXANS, and the Raiders in a pseudo playoff game in Week 18 with a two score lead in the 4th quarter. Brandon Staley has elicited praise for his ballsy approach to 4th downs in key game situations but as proven last year it is a live or die proposition each time. Until he shows some more poise around when not to risk it, I can’t trust him.
9. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
Their presence inside my top ten is solely the result of a roster that is just bursting with talent but their quarterback is a total “?” at this point. Trey Lance has thrown less than 200 passes in real game time in the past two years! That has to matter at some point, unless he is the second coming of Patrick Mahomes or Joe Montana. Time will tell on Trey Lance, but resigning Jimmy G as a backup helps add to the roster talent of proven players success that San Fran has seen when healthy since Shanahan and Lynch’s arrival.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
The O-line is arguably the best in the league and top three minimum. Pairing A.J. Brown with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert makes their weapons scary good and while we are not certain of Jalen Hurts arm talent he is certainly a threat to run and a talented runner at that. The scariest part of this team might be its defense which showed development and improvement last year and may have gotten not one but two steals of the draft in Jordan Davis falling to 13 and Nakobe Dean dropping all the way to 83, both from Georgia’s National Championship team. They will only make this defense an even more stout unit.
11. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
Everyone in Indy is crossing their fingers that every bone, muscle, fiber and organ of Michael Pittman Jr. stays in perfect condition all season because if he can’t play I’m not sure Matt Ryan will know who he’s throwing the ball to. It’s hard to argue with their defensive talent and returning the NFL leading rusher in 2021 doesn’t hurt either.
12. Minnesota Vikings (11-6)
Sometimes a new coaching regime comes in and tears it all down and has to rebuild. Others are brought in when the messaging has just gotten stale and left the players feeling stagnant. The Minnesota Vikings were the latter. I think the talent on this roster alone makes the Vikings a serious threat to the Packers for the NFC North division crown and as we’ve seen before if they get to the playoffs, Kirk and company know how to win on the road.
13. Arizona Cardinals (9-8)
I don’t trust Kyler and I trust Kliff even less, especially the more posts like the one above become the norm in their relationship as well as when the calendar gets deeper into fall. There is not a single positive vibe to be found with this organization. They tried to obligate their 230 MILLION dollar QB to do more homework with a sneaky contract clause; their star WR is suspended for the first six games; J.J. Watt hasn’t been relevant in three years as a D-lineman; the whole team starts strong and fades as the season matures; and speaking of maturity, that 230 million dollar QB looks more interested in playing a different sport half the season. After a tough stretch of games Kyler Murray gives off the same vibe as my six year old when I tell her it’s time to shut the TV off and go to bed. They’ll start strong, they may even beat the Chiefs week one but just bide your time til November. Then, fade the red birds, hard and fast.
14. Denver Broncos (10-7)
Defense was stout the last few years. Can it remain so without the architect, Fangio? Is Russell on the decline or about to re-emerge? Is Jerry Jeudy a top talent held back by bad qb play and injury the past few years or another overhyped Bama beneficiary of the insane talent that surrounded him in college? Can Nathaniel Hackett, hack it? All these questions give me pause and provide reason as to why they start as the third ranked team in the loaded AFC West.
15. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
They are middle of the pack but will probably squeak into the playoffs thanks to a soft division and above the bar QB play they undoubtedly will get from Dak, yet again. Two games against Philly may well serve as the difference makers for the division crown.
16. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
I’m by no means a Tua believer but I’m also not stupid enough to think adding insane levels of speed to two key offensive skill positions (Edmonds & Hill) will not make a difference. I’m also not stupid enough to believe Tua is the most accurate quarterback Coach McDaniel nor Tyreek Hill have ever seen despite their lies to the media saying as much. Miami will be fighting it out with the likes of Denver, Las Vegas and Tennessee for one of the final wildcards and I put them neck and neck with any of those squads.
17. Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)
Added Davante Adams, Chandler Jones and an offensive minded guru in Josh McDaniels as Head Coach. They managed to make it to the playoffs last year despite being one of three teams to contend with Jacksonville and Washington for the Dysfunctional Organization Crown Championship. This team is a dark horse for the playoffs more than most care to admit.
18. Tennessee Titans (8-9)
There are plenty of reasons to fade the Titans and that grenade fart of a playoff game Tannehill tossed out in January is the biggest. Earlier in this post I talked about tiers of QB play and Tannehill bounces between the good and bad categories more than a protagonist in any Breaking Bad episode. Henry should be back to full health, which he clearly wasn’t in that playoff loss and while the tread of his tires is worn down a bit, I think he’s now being undervalued. As much as I wish they were an afterthought, Mike Vrabel won’t let his team just fade away. They'll be in the thick of the division and playoff races come the final few weeks of the season, even if doing so with a new rookie under center 😉.
19. New England Patriots (8-9)
No offensive coordinator nor seemingly vision nor system nor concept nor identity on offense tends to create problems. While the defensive wounds may be hidden by the genius in the Jedi-like, sleeveless hoodie, the last time I checked most current NFL teams need to score and score quite a bit to win most games. Is Bill is finally washed? Well, I’ll believe that when I see it and if it is true I look forward to a few more no punting games against him from Josh Allen.
20. New Orleans Saints (10-7)
Lots to like in NOLA but a lot of unknowns or uncertainties, such as:
-Jameis Winston’s health
-Jameis Winston’s QB play on a consistent basis
-Jameis Winston’s toughness, physically and mentally
-Michael Thomas’ health
-Chris Olave’s health
-Alvin Kamara’s availability following his battery arrest charges
-Dennis Allen’s head coaching ability, not to mention his ability to inspire a second one of those Kevin James horror comedies about coaching football on Netflix.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)
Tomlin has never had a losing season - like kids getting sick of ice cream or Trump supporters admitting they were conned it just never happens. However, the QBs and DBs, beyond Minkah Fitzpatrick, paired with their schedule do give credence to think this just may be the year.
22. Cleveland Browns (7-10)
Eleven games isn’t enough and will never be. Also, after signing Watson to insane levels of guaranteed money, I believe the Universe will send the Browns clear karma feedback in the form of a 7-10 or worse season.
23. Detroit Lions (7-10)
Hard knocks, man! Man this is a good team, man. Do you know what grit is man? Detroit has grit man. Man, I just don’t know if they have the talent to get past 7 or 8 wins man, but man they’ll be fun to watch this season, man. “Man!”
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-10)
Jacksonville can easily double their wins from last year(3) with competent coaching and quarterback play alone. I think they get both of those this season on a consistent basis. What if Trevor Lawrence has a second year ascension? Well, this could be our worst to first division candidate in the wacky, wild AFC south.
25. New York Giants (6-11)
The age old question of Daboll or Josh Allen and who gets more credit should be given a little clearer answer within Coach Daboll’s first two years at East Rutherford, New Jersey. If the Giants follow the Bills rebuild methodology don’t expect many things this first year but I wouldn’t be surprised at a few outright underdog victories and an improved record from last season.
26. Carolina Panthers (6-11)
I do think Baker makes this team far more competent and competitive than they were with Darnold under center but a Baker ceiling alone on this slightly average offense is probably seven or eight wins when looking at their schedule. They won’t have the talent to beat the Bucs, Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Niners, Ravens, or Rams but may be able to steal a win from the Steelers and/or Saints.
27. New York Jets (5-12)
I dunno Jets fans - you can’t deny the talent that is now in the building. However when it comes to what to do with that talent or how to best position it for success this organization knows as much about that as a Kardashian would about farming or manual labor of any kind. It’s been so long since this was their reality it’s basically a foreign concept to them so let’s see if they can figure it out over this season or if it’s just the same old Jets circus act.
28. Washington Commanders (4-13)
This organization may challenge for the worst record this season but their defense probably has too much talent to let that be the case. One thing is for certain this is the final Carson Wentz starting opportunity. I can’t see him garnering any further teams interest without taking this team to the playoffs or at minimum shrinking his interceptions to single digits while also doubling his touchdown rate.
29. Seattle Seahawks (5-12)
They’ll have a decent run game but who among us trusts Geno Smith when this team gets behind by a touchdown or more? The Seattle recipe for success has typically been to keep things close and then strike late with a Russ’ cooking type special play and while they could surprise a few teams that let them linger in games too long, I can’t see a path to more than 5 wins.
30. Houston Texans (4-13)
Improved from last year and starting to rebuild in the right directions but when there’s so much to rebuild from the very foundation up, it takes time.
31. Atlanta Falcons (3-14)
No QB, yet, as I still think Ridder could prove to be the answer in the long term if he gets a chance and I think he will eventually this season. They will be picking in the top five in the draft in April.
32. Chicago Bears (1-16)
Collectively everyone in the Bears front office, coaching room and all Bears fans are holding their breath this season and just praying “Please survive Justin, just survive!” Good luck with that.
We’ll see how the year plays out and I’ll update my power rankings with a mid-season and late season review. Thanks for reading!
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