Who's making all that bRACKET? [Round 1]
The second most wonderful time of the year, the premier of March Madness and All-state's newest mayhem commercials, is here. While many of us prepare to call out of work or work from home this Thursday and Friday afternoon, many a team are trying on the glass slipper to see who it will fit this year. As you finalize your bracket by the noon deadline let me offer some insight to the first round matchups. Be sure to check back before the start of each round for my newest takes as we advance through the tourney.
Skip the next paragraph if you prefer to avoid soapboxes.
The field is set but that doesn't mean it was correct. The two biggest qualms I have with the field of 68 the committee assembled this year probably won't surprise anyone. Syracuse and Oklahoma do not deserve to be in the field over the likes of Notre Dame, USC, Louisville and arguably Oklahoma State as well. All four of these teams performed better in conference tournaments and either beat Syracuse or Oklahoma head to head and/or finished with a better conference record than the Orange or Sooners. It seems Syracuse is just a flip of a coin each year when selection Sunday comes around. Frankly, the committee could not be more transparent on wanting Trae Young in the tourney even if it is only for one game. This is their only shot at having the young NBA star prospect in and after not being able to bastardize their system two years ago to allow the below pitiful LSU Tigers into the field they missed out on Ben Simmons’ star power for ticket and advertising revenue, they were not going to miss out again and surprise, surprise OU is the tip off game. Get those advertisers to pay up front NCAA! So if there was ever a doubt money runs college athletics kindly remove that doubt from your mind now. End of soapbox rant.
There is also no doubt the first round of the tournament always offers the most edge of your seat excitement and wide-eyed buzzer beater surprises. Its easily my favorite two days of the tourney and surely I'm not alone in that thinking. Let's kick start the madness one region at a time:
SOUTH
Top 5 seeds: 1-Virginia, 2-Cincinnati, 3-Tennessee, 4-Arizona, 5-Kentucky
Clearly the committee wants Virginia to prove beyond all doubt that defense can win a championship or even to reach the final four. As the overall #1 seed they could face the hardest path there. They would potentially have to defeat a skilled perimeter shooting Creighton squad, at least one wildcat pack after they claw each other down from 3 to 1, and they may have to fight a mini-clone in Cincy who's defense can easily rival that of Virginia. If the elite eight matchup indeed is Cincy v. Virginia I'm going to predict it will be the lowest scoring elite eight matchup of the modern era, I'm talking high forties low fifties territory.
Winner of the region: Cincinnati
The Bearcats have a ferocious ball swarming defense and they are not afraid to be physical on either end of the court. They have a potent interior attack with four players averaging double digits, they can score with anyone.
Sleeper final four pick: Kentucky
I don't think anyone expects Kentucky to be sleepy but they do have a rough road to make a run so that may be why few folks are talking about these Wildcats. They'll start with a feisty Davidson team that could pull upset if Kentucky starts slow or sleepwalks through this game. However, if the Kentucky Cal-cats from the SEC tourney show up they could torch this region in four games and be on the verge of another one and done squad championship. When their group gels they are one of the tallest, physical, talented teams in the field but depth is not a strength (especially after losing Jarred Vanderbilt) so foul trouble could be disastrous for them.
Upset squad under the radar: Loyola-Chicago
Look out Hurricanes, once the coach for the George Mason Giant-killers Jim Larranaga is going to get a taste of his own medicine when this Cinderella takes a glass slipper to his shin. The Ramblers have all the qualities you seek in a standard upset squad - experienced upperclassmen, ball sharing all around, strong defense (ranking in the top 5% of DI for total points per possession), depth on the bench and solid free throw shooting. I like the Ramblers to win not one but at least two games and enjoy the sweet sixteen!
Boldest Prediction for region: I'll continue Rambling about Loyola-Chicago and go so far as to say: "What if I told you in March 2018 tears of joy were maroon and gold? What if one, two or three wins just wasn't enough? I could just keep Rambling or you can find it all out on ESPN's next 30 for 30: Four the Greater Glory - Tuesday night at 9pm." (The school motto is For the Greater Glory of God - didn't want my word play to go unappreciated.)
EAST
Top 5 seeds: 1-Villanova, 2-Purdue, 3-Texas Tech, 4-Wichita State, 5-West Virginia
All arrows point to Villanova having the easiest road to the final four which is probably one of the main reasons it won't happen or it would be called run-of-the-mill March. West Virginia's swarm of a defense could cause plenty of issues if they can survive the upset minded Murray State matchup. Purdue is also being underrated in general discussion, hitting a late season snag makes them a sleeping giant not a comatose one.
Winner of the Region: Villanova
No one can doubt the talent up and down this roster especially as skillful 3 point shooters. Brunson and Bridges are the heartbeat for sure but everyone contributes to this offensive juggernaut. Cold streaks from beyond the arc and a lack of foul shot opportunities have led to the few losses they suffered this year and likely would be the culprit again if they don't triumph.
Sleeper final four pick: Florida
Experience and leadership give the gators an edge to make a deep run. I am also positive Chris Chiozza is entering his 12th tourney so like I said before leadership and experience. The gators will have to avoid their occasional tendency toward turnovers to make a deep run but they are capable for sure.
Upset squad under the radar: Butler
In their 11 dances since 2001 the Butler Bulldogs have only once failed to win at least one game when they have been a 7 seed or lower. They have a culture of winning in March especially as an underdog. They would love a rematch opportunity against the state rival Boilermakers after a close loss earlier this year but they'll need to get past an upstart Arkansas team who could also play spoiler should they win the opener.
Boldest Prediction for region: Stephen F. Austin and St. Bonny duke it out for a sweet sixteen date expecting to find Purdue waiting but are surprised to find Butler instead. Having defeated their in state rival a classic double, double digit matchup takes shape for the sweet sixteen.
WEST
Top 5 seeds: 1-Xavier, 2-North Carolina, 3-Michigan, 4-Gonzaga, 5-Ohio State
Surprisingly I have heard very few predictions, even locally, for a Tarheel repeat. Likewise, the only attention the one seed Musketeers are getting is disrespect about how they're clearly the weakest one seed. Meanwhile the majority seem to be favoring a Michigan, Gonzaga meeting to win the region, so you can count on that not happening.
Winner of the Region: Xavier
I am not only aboard the Xavier bandwagon, I'm in first class paying for platinum passenger privileges because I plan to be there a while, like championship game in April long.
Sleeper final four pick: Houston
Talk about a team comfortable playing away from home, Houston hasn't had a true home game all season yet they won all their home games hosted at Texas Southern's gym. This is an often undervalued asset when it comes to tournament time but being comfortable away from home can put a team at ease and help them find an early groove that leads to success.
Upset squads under the radar: South Dakota State & Providence
The Jackrabbits are a popular pick so I'm doubling up in this region with the Friars as well. Ed Cooley's team is heating up at the right time following an epic string of three overtime games including a Big East championship game against Villanova. When playing their best and Kyron Cartwright is leading the way they can certainly qualify for the second weekend. The Jackrabbits are more powerful than quick behind Mike Daum. They play smart not sloppy and shoot almost 40% from three-land.
Boldest Prediction for region: Montana takes down Michigan in a three point shoot out that isn't decided until the end of double overtime with a buzzer beater from Steph Curry range!
MIDWEST
Top 5 seeds: 1-Kansas, 2-Duke, 3-Michigan State, 4-Auburn, 5-Clemson
In my humble opinion this region is home to not only the weakest #1 seed, Kansas, but also the most vulnerable #2 seed in Duke. The door is wide-open in this region for a surprising final four qualifier unless the popular vote of Sparty holds to form. I am expecting this to be the bracket buster region for many. One upset I am not buying into though is everyone's belief that Syracuse will win another game. Yeah, yeah they run a difficult zone to prepare for in a short time. That holds true unless you're a coach who spent 17 years prepping for it regularly in Big East and ACC play at Pittsburgh and happen to own a 15-6 record against the Orange during that time like Jamie Dixon does. Who does he coach now? Oh right, TCU, Syracuse's next opponent. Dixon is even mocking Boeheim in the photo below.
Winner of the Region: Michigan State
The Spartans are a deep, experienced squad with an strong resume of 30 wins earned through top tier competition. Their only four losses come from defeats to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan twice. Sparty is strong willed, skilled and capable of winning it all but they will need to emerge victorious from a likely rematch with the Blue Devils to do so. Coach K has enjoyed playing the Tom Brady to Izzo's Peyton Manning especially in March matchups. Hopefully Tom Izzo's troops can switch to an Eli Manning mode should they face off again.
Sleeper final four pick: Auburn
Their 21 of 23 game streak was not a fluke and despite the sputtering season finish the Tigers can easily make a sweet sixteen or even elite eight run should they return to early season form.
Upset squads under the radar: North Carolina State, Rhode Island
Sparty and Auburn's respective roads could at least seem a lot easier if both of these underappreciated squads spring a trap on the vulnerable Jayhawks and Dookies. The Wolfpack has the know how to topple any team, with season wins over both their NC rivals along with defeating Clemson and Arizon as well. Rhode Island may have lost their conference tournament and slid through a few games late but Dan Hurley will have his group focused on reprising their surprise sweet sixteen visit from last year, making them a tough out for anyone, including Coach K.
Boldest Prediction for region: Saved the boldest for last, Kansas will become the first #1 to lose to a #16 seed. Penn pulls the historic upset and starts the many fireworks that will ultimately consume this region on everyone's bracket.
My actual full first round picks:
Check back on Saturday morning for my round 2 predictions and beyond. Enjoy the madness.