Unbelievable Midnight Bracket Calamity (Who's making all that bRACKET? - Round 2)
It is near impossible for anyone to follow up the performance University of Maryland Baltimore County put on display last night in Charlotte but I am sure the remaining tournament teams will do their best. Yes history has been made. History that can never be undone, short of a play in #16 seed beating the overall number one seed. I had a feeling this was the year for a 16 seed just so much parity across the field unfortunately I was just focused on the wrong one (thanks for nothing Penn).
Pictures below show the agony of defeat and the thrill of victory, and the memes throughout are the modern byproduct of making history.
Round One Reflections
What I got right:
1) Where else would I start other than my cinderella success story, the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. They took down the Hurricanes in thrilling March fashion as predicted. Stay tuned because this story is not over yet, be on alert Volunteers, you'll be the next to fall.
2) All of my final four and elite eight squads survived and advanced. I always consider this a win since we’ve all been the victims of a first day/round bracket buster or region wrecker.
3) I went 3-1 in the #7 v #10 seed matchups, Providence couldn’t pull out a close one to give me the fouth but I'll take 75% as a win.
4) Xavier looked like the most potent team scoring 102 points which is a healthy starting figure for my overall favorite to cut down the nets.
What I got wrong:
1) Unfortunately Syracuse continues to win games when they limp into the tournament. The Orange and their “tough zone d” are the hustlers of tournament time. Jaimie Dixon’s team just didn’t have enough and was plagued by turnovers and inconsistent offensive execution all night and credit for that goes to the Cuse D. Come on Sparty send them back home where they should’ve been watching the tourney from all along.
2) I picked no #13 seeds and missed the party.
3) I’m still a sucker for the 12-5 and 14-3 matchups and none of them planned out this time around. My favorites were 12)South Dakota State and 14)Stephen F. Austin but neither were able to close out games in they were close or held a led in the second half.
4) I liked three 8 seeds and one nine seed and the and managed to miss all four of those coin flip games.
Somewhere in the middle:
1) I truly thought this was the year for a sixteen seed to grab a win I just set my sights on the most vulnerable one seed (Kansas) rather than realizing they waited 135 matchups to take down not just any one seed but the overall #1 seed. So I’ll count this as half right and half wrong
2) Overall I went 20-12 in the first round so certainly not great. I always strive for a 26 or better to open the tourney and fell rather short this year but it could be worse.
3) The ACC's 4-5 showing thus far leave plenty to be desired from the supposed "best basketball conference." I am a strong supporter of this theory typically but this year has been one of extreme parity after Virginia that is and we saw how their story ended. A couple ACC deep runs by UNC, Duke and Clemson could makeover this tournament record but would be a bit like putting lipstick on a pig.
Second Round Predictions
SOUTH
Best Matchup: 5) Kentucky v. 13) Buffalo
The Bulls didn't rely on a buzzer beater to just eek out a first round upset they punched Arizona in the face, repeatedly and Arizona could not find their bearing all game. Sure we can point to the distractions of the investigations as finally being too much to ignore but Buffalo gets all the credit for this win. They shot 69% from downtown in the second half! While that kind of accuracy is near impossible to match they will clearly not be intimidated by Kentucky's big blue nation. Buffalo will be ready for a 40 minute fight so Kentucky better be as well.
Upset Alert: Tennessee & Kansas State
Loyola-Chicago is going to keep this game close; their all for one and one for all approach on both ends of the court make this an almost certainty. When top seed are in tight contention with cinderellas it just takes a couple well timed turnovers, fast breaks, and/or three pointers to rattle them, just look at Virginia last night. If Tennessee does not find their resolve in the deep moments of this game when the score is close they will go the way of the Hurricanes.
Who doesn't want UMBC's historic run to continue? Well, K-State fans, players and coaches to name a few. The retrievers will show maturity beyond their experience and give the Wildcats a run for their money or the largest pair of glass slippers ever worn will prove too heavy to keep running in which case K-State will boat race them out of the gym. One thing is certain the Wildcats will NOT be taking this team lightly.
Region's Four Winners: UMBC, Kentucky, Loyola-Chicago, Cincinatti
I am sucker for an underdog (Loyola-Chicago), let alone an epic under-dog (UMBC). History is in their favor though as 31 of the past 33 years the sweet sixteen has featured at least one double digit seed.
EAST
Best Matchup: 10) Butler v. 2) Purdue
The Bulldogs get their opportunity at revenge from an early season defeat of 82-67. That score is a misleading as Butlet went on an impressive run to cut the Boilermaker lead to nine with only three minutes remaining before being silences by an 11-2 closing streak by Purdue. Where its not misleading is that Purdue was in control for the whole game and really had their way with their instate rival. Butler will need to learn from their mistakes in that matchup. Not having to face Haas, who suffered a likely season ending elbow injury on Thursday, makes for a more even matchup for Butler.
Upset Alert: Villanova
Alabama's freshman stars, Collin Sexton & John Petty, did the exact opposite of shrinking in the spotlight and I'd expect more of the same for their matchup against the #1 Wildcats. Villanova's recent struggles with the round of 32 is worrying as well. Five of their last 8 exits in March came in this round, with only 9 total exits in this round since 1985, this is a disturbingly frequent uptick in occurrence.
Region's Four Winners: Villanova, West Virginia, Florida, Butler
Florida has the fire-power and experience to take down Texas Tech who was really playing with fire against a defensively powered Stephen F. Austin squad that fumbled away an upset lead in the last three minutes. Credit for that was mostly due to senior Keenan Evans, deciding he didn't want to go home yet, he pulled his Red Raider teammates on his back, scoring six of their last ten points and collecting two crucial rebounds.
West Virginia may have early trouble with Marshall but only a lack of offense and turnovers from their pressure packaged D would make them vulnerable.
WEST
Best Matchup: 6) Houston v. 3) Michigan
This game should offer plenty of three point swishes for those of you who enjoy the deep ball. However, it will likely also include stretches of cold streaks for either or both teams and the key will be how they play on the defensive end during those tough times when the shots won't fall. Michigan has a tendency to use defensive possessions as additional timeouts which can be danagerous especially against a team averaging 38.5 rebounds per game.
Upset Alert: Gonzaga
While its hard to call a five seed over a four seed an upset, Gonzaga is nearly a two to one favorite in Vegas to win. The bulldogs sleepwalked through part of their opening game and are lucky they were able to hold off the late UNC-G Spartan surge. If they show up with the same lethargy today Ohio State will easily capatilize.
Region's Four Winners: Xavier, UNC, Gonzaga, Houston
UNC should easily handle their business against the Aggies and I expect the same methodical and dominant approach by the Musketeers over an inconsistent Seminoles squad.
MIDWEST
Best Matchup: 5) Clemson v. 4) Auburn
Clemson played a strong opener against a New Mexico State squad that many liked for upset status. They have rebounded well from injuries late in the season and their bench has stepped up to fill the roles well. Auburn played on a knife's edge all game against College of Charleston. Twenty-one turnovers by the cougars should have made this game more manageable and more of a run away but getting into foul trouble early left Auburn struggling to keep pace let alone win. This matchup showcases two teams no one expected to have the respective successful season they did. Each have had to overcome their share of late season injuries and one can punch their ticket to the sweet sixteen but both should feel great about their season regardless of this result.
Upset Alert: Duke & Kansas
Rhode Island took care of business against Trae Young and looks to reprise their trip to the second weekend with a win over the Blue Devils. This game promises to be a classic if both teams bring their A game so don't miss it.
Kansas should hold their breath and hope Seton Hall doesn't bring the same fire power with which they opened the tournament. The Pirates shot nearly 49% from the field and out rebounded NC State at both ends of the court. They totaled the second highest score of the opening round and if they bring the same potency Kansas is in for a shootout.
Region's Four Winners: Seton Hall, Clemson, Michigan State, Duke
The Spartans will dispatch Syracuse and prepare for a rematch with Coach K. Seton Hall comes out firing and cuts Kansas' championship run off at the knees. Clemson will overcome their missing pieces better than Auburn overcomes theirs and move on and Duke survives a late scare to move on as well.
My full second round predictions (Actual results are in blue, my picks are in green):
In conclusion, I am still amazed that I watched a script being written for a 30 for 30 last night. I hope they borrow my post’s title; I can hear the promo now:
“What if for one night more than just a retriever was golden for a little school from Baltimore? What if I told you the one hundredth and thirty sixth time was the charm? ESPN 30 for 30 presents “The Ubelievable Midnight Bracket Calamity” or maybe they’ll just call it UMBC for short.
