Ramblers and Tigers and Aggies, OH MY! (Who's making all that bRACKET? - Sweet 16 edition)

This year's sweet sixteen has certainly brought plenty of surprises with it. Several of those surprises go by the name Nevada Wolfpack, Texas A&M Aggies, Kansas State Wildcats, Florida State Seminoles, Syracuse Orange, and last but far from the least the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. This mix of 7, 9 and 11 seeds were far from popular choices for anyone's original bracket (other than the Ramblers in mine). Now they control their destiny as the second weekend approaches. Which of them will continue dancing in glass slippers and whose coach will turn into a pumpkin?

EAST

1) Villanova v. 5) West Virginia We will start out in what has been a relatively calm region save for a 13 seeded Marshall upsetting Wichita St. no real shocking results have occurred. I expect the same to continue as Villanova's hyperdrive of an offense shreds the pressure defense West Virginia relies on as their primary weapon. I know the saying goes that defense wins championships but when a team is making over 40% of their three point shots relying on defense alone is like bringing a shield to a cannon fight. However, Villanova's potent attack is also its greatest weakness. Perhaps they are shooting over 40% but they are also attempting more threes than anyone else still in the tournament and third overall in the country (#1-Savannah St. with 1304, #2-The Citadel with 1133, #3-Villanova with 1043). The next team still in the tournament on that list is Michigan with 914 all the way down at #19. If Villanova goes cold, West Virgina will likely rattle them enough with pressure (averaging 16.5 forced turnovers per game) to pull the upset, and it may only take one bad half when you shoot that many threes. Final Score: Villanova 82, West Virginia 71

2) Purdue v. 3)Texas Tech

Purdue survived a late Butler surge to move on without their big man, Haas. They will have to do it without him again to keep their title hopes alive because shockingly he won't play with a fractured elbow despite the Purdue engineering department attempting to create a brace for him. Ah nothing like state and federal education funds being put to their intended use; "lets build a contraption to push the physical limits of our star basketball player so we can head to the final four." Thankfully, Matt Painter is not foolish enough to entertain this and has already declared Haas out for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately for them, I think that remainder is only one more game. Texas Tech has been playing like a top four team, certainly better than Xavier or Virginia, and Keenan Evans is playing like a man possessed while being obsessed with winning a title. He single handedly willed his team to a win in the last three minutes of their opening round game against an upstart SFA squad and followed that with a 22 point effort while shooting 75% from behind the arc against the Gators. Watch out boilermakers Evans may send you home early to finish up your elbow brace project in time to enjoy spring break. Final Score: Purdue 62, Texas Tech 67

MIDWEST

1) Kansas v. 5) Clemson

As I was filling out my bracket my two year old daughter lent a hand in picking this matchup as she scribbled her frustration over Kansas. Clemson has arguably played their best basketball the last two games. Yes, New Mexico State was a 12 seed but they were a trending upset pick for a reason, they were talented but Clemson stoutly stormed through that game. In round two they blew the doors off of an Auburn team that won the SEC regular season. Meanwhile, Kansas has had their standard 1 seed ho-hum opening weekend to the tournament easily skating through the first game and getting a slight wake up call when Seton Hall stretched out the final few minutes of their match to give the Rock Chalk Jayhawks a run before fading at the finish. Kansas' weak spot this year? Playing at home, with four of their first 5 losses coming at the Phog, they're pretty thankful to not be playing there. Throw the stats out the window when a team is hot in March, Clemson is hot! And Bill Self is already running for the exit. Final Score: Kansas 74 Clemson 81

2) Duke v. 11) Syracuse

As much as it pains me to say it Syracuse is still in the tournament. They must have some semblance of skill and talent that just lies dormant most seasons until March. After dispatching Sparty, for their third March win, Syracuse faces a familiar foe in the Duke Blue Devils. Familiar foes are not so friendly for the Orange though because those foes know how to complete a series of passes on offense consistently in order to beat a zone defense. While other teams have acted like the 2-3 zone is some foreign unknown obstacle or unbeatable boss character on the final stage of a video game, ACC opponents of the Orange are well versed in beating it with accurate and effective passes and skilled perimeter shooters. Remember the passing drills you likely did for hours at summer basketball camps? That likely made up a big chunk of Coach K's focus with his team this week but just up a few levels in skills and execution. The other ace Duke has up their sleeve is that Syracuse will get a taste of their own medicine when facing a similar 2-3 zone from Duke's defense. The two will face off one day shy of a month from when Duke defeated, no no sorry, beat down Syracuse 60-44 on Feb. 24th at Cameron Indoor. Orange fans should expect more of the same treatment. Final Score: Duke 68, Syracuse 52

SOUTH

5) Kentucky v. 9) Kansas State

No point in drawing this out Kentucky is the better team, with the better roster and they have been playing their best team ball since the start of the SEC tourney. If you're gonna skip a game to watch this round make it this one. Final Score: Kentucky 82, K-State 64

7) Nevada v. 11) Loyola-Chicago

Onto the matchup we all expected, right? I mean, I did have Loyola-Chicago here so I get half credit for sure. Why stop riding the Ramblers now? One reason would be the Martin twins who are the alphas for Nevada's wolf pack for sure. Together they account for almost a third of the team's offense. Two impressive comebacks from double digit deficits in the second half of games that looked won by their opponents have made most people believers in this persistent pack; most people but not all. Loyola has hit two game winning shots in the waning seconds of games, but these were games in which they led or tied consistently throughout. The Ramblers don't beat themselves and they don't get behind by much. Teams that trail by double digits regularly and depend on surprising comebacks have one thing in common, they all lose sooner than later. Also who wants to mess with Sister Jean? Nevada's clock runs out this Thursday around 8:30pm. Final Score: Nevada 62, Loyola-Chicago 65

WEST

4) Gonzaga v. 9) Florida State

The Bulldogs delivered a strong showing against a resurgent Ohio State team that never called it quits even when trailing consistently. This was an important step in the right direction for Mark Few's squad, gaining focus after a sleepwalking start that almost turned upset in the opener. The Zags have some swagger now which may come in handy as they face their most athletically gifted opponent since a Dec. 5th matchup with Villanova. Florida State is the epitome of a roller coaster crew. They display amazing fulfillment of potential in wins over UNC, Florida, Clemson and the most recent Xavier comeback and then baffle their fans when blowing games to Boston College and an injury laden Notre Dame team. Any hope for continuing their run will depend on consistent play. I am not so confident in that being possible. Final Score: Gonzaga 79, FSU 73

3) Michigan v. 7) Texas A&M

The Wolverines amazing game winning buzzer beater crushed my favorite sleeper for a deep run in this region (Houston) but March is full of those moments that make the madness amazing and heart wrenching all at once. This may be the game of the weekend especially if the Aggies from last Sunday show up. They did not just beat a talented Tar Heels team, they embarrassed them by outplaying them at both ends of the court all game. Still, this match is a coin flip to me. Michigan average 73 points, 34 rebounds, 15 assists and 6 steals while the Aggies average 74 points, 40 rebounds, 15 assists and 5 steals. It's anyone's guess but I ultimately think John Beilein's team will keep their hot shooting streak alive and pull out a tight one. Final Score: Michigan 71, Texas A&M 66

My full Sweet Sixteen picks: