The Unusual Suspects (Who's making all that bRACKET? - Elite 8 Edition)

The sweet sixteen round certainly continued to deliver on this March's madness. Customarily, this is the round where the high flying cinderella teams are brought back to earth. A sound defeat at the hands of the traditional 1-5 seeds we expect to see in this round typically proves their opponent's presence here was a fun, amusing fluke but nothing more. However, that's not the case this year, at least not on one side of the bracket. Nine seeded Kansas State and eleven seeded Loyola-Chicago face off today for a chance to be the highest seed remaining in the final four. We have a chance to see at least one and up to three schools end some epic final four droughts: K-State (1964), Loyola-Chicago (1963), Florida State (1972), Texas Tech (never). Times they are a changin'.

I was pretty happy about going 5-3 for my elight eight picks but before I get to my elite eight matchup predictions I want to start off by soundly apologizing to Kansas State for the quick dismissal of their chances against Kentucky. They outplayed their fellow Wildcats for the majority of the game and proved pretty much everyone outside their own fans wrong. This game was a perfect channeling of Chris Berman's famous "that's why they play the game" mantra.

Speaking of Berman did anyone else miss his mustache phase? I did and it blew my mind when I saw the photo below. Back to the game - it was also a reminder that free throws can just as easily lose a team a game as they can win it. Calipari has always played fast and loose with his attention to free throw percentage of his teams, dating back to losing a national championship at Memphis in 2008. His team's latest struggles at the charity stripe saw Kentucky go 23-37 last night when only four more made free throws would have won the game for them. Kansas State definitely deserves credit for the win but Kentucky can also blame themselves for losing by leaving 14 easy points on the court.

Elite Eight Matchup Predictions

9) Kansas State v. 11) Loyola-Chicago Now what will likely piss off those same K-State fans is that I'm sticking with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers to make the final four. The Ramblers delivered another soundly mature, experienced, whole team performance. When Nevada was ahead by twelve early they stuck with their game plan and steeled their resolve rather than panic and resort to the quick chucking of three ball prayers. They executed their offense, tightened up on defense, forced turnovers and worked over the length of the remaining first half to regain the lead. Then they showed even more fortitude when their own twelve point lead slipped away with only two minutes to go in the second half. When everyone else was starting to think here comes the patented Wolfpack double digit comeback, Loyola took a time out and gathered their composure. Then, ran a time wasting possession concluding with Marques Townes draining a three with under seven seconds remaining to secure a four point lead and the win. Both these teams have had improbable runs to this point but think about the two narratives that frame each one, who's really the team of destiny?

-Kansas State is here because a 16 seed finally made the leap. Thanks to UMBC, the wildcats avoided playing the top ranked defense and team in the country. After narrowly escaping that same team they defeated Kentucky thanks in large part to poor free throws by big blue and by shooting 40% from downtown themselves.

-Loyola-Chicago has had to do things the hard way. Two game winning and ending shots in their first two games knocked out superior talent touted Miami and Tennessee. Then they held off the cardiac comeback kids from Nevada, who kindly removed the second best defense of the region by defeating Cincinnati. Shortly after, the prospect of having to matchup with a tall and long Kentucky team was removed from the equation by K-State. Could the stars be aligning any better for a Loyola run? If they defeat the purple power cats they even have an opportunity to play Florida State who can't remember the last time they played consistent basketball for more than 3 games in a row or a Michigan team who's slight over-reliance on accurate three point shots could spell disaster at any start of a cold streak. Loyola-Chicago feels like a once in a lifetime, surprising kind of special, squad and they apparently have God on their side via Sister Jean so unless you think another team can beat God I don't know how the Ramblers would lose at this point.

Final Score: K-State 66, Loyola 68

3) Michigan v. 9) Florida State

Florida State is deep, two and a half teams worth of deep. I hope Michigan saved some of the fire power they used to burn down the Aggies hopes and dreams in the first ten minutes of their matchup. They will need all the offense they can muster because it seems the Seminoles have figured out that if they aim to play mistake free basketball, take quality shots from ball movement and play even average defense they should always have a strong shot at winning. If the Seminoles from the last three halves of play and the Michigan team from Thursday show up this should be a barn burner and could be a sneaky pick for matchup of the weekend. You know what the madness of this tournament has been lacking in? OVERTIME! We've only had 2 overtime games in the entire tournament, both in the round of 64 and one was the first game (Rhode Island v. Oklahoma). So how about we add a third one to the list. I see both teams having hot and cold shooting streaks in this game. They both prefer an even pace so not too many fast break points in transition for either side but plenty of points will accumulate. Florida State outlasts Michigan in extra time thanks to their depth and also because I think Loyola-Chicago has a better shot beating the Seminoles than the Wolverines and so far everything is coming up Sister Jean this March.

Final Score: Michigan 79, FSU 82 - in OT

1) Villanova v. 3) Texas Tech

It took Villanova about 25 minutes of game time to figure out how to be comfortable with being uncomfortable due to West Virginia's press. Good Ol' Press Virginia frustrated the Wildcats and took advantage of their sloppy play and 17 turnovers but a precision time out by Jay Wright when the Mountaineers had taken a six point lead with 11:04 left in the game. Villanova proceeded to end the game on a 36-18 run and had a comfortable ten point lead for the final three minutes. The game showcased the true strength of Villanova, their roster. Top to bottom they are stacked with versatile talent that frustrates any defense because you can do everything right, time and time again and they hit hard shots or make rebounds on a funky bounce and just find ways to still score and succeed when it seems they should not be able to do so. This is what makes Villanova the most dominant and dangerous remaining team in the field. It's also the kind of moments that distinguish good teams from greatness and championships. Take it from Boromir:

Texas Tech has gone from a trendy three seed pick for the final four to a true contender. Now is the time to prove that their wilting in big games to close the regular season is not a character flaw of the Red Raiders. If Texas Tech can overcome the juggernaut Villanova offense then you might say their ceiling is the roof. If they can beat Nova whats to say they can't beat Kansas or Duke? Nothing, not a single thing. Beating a Haas-less Purdue squad, while squeaking past Florida and needing a late surge to stymie SFA isn't a resume that inspires confidence. However, the viewing of those games and Tech's execution now contrasts with how malleable they were in their late regular season games has made me believe. Keenan Evans is the star for sure, but they have played team ball all tourney so far. If they can continue building offense from their defense and shooting the lights out in key moments they can keep this streak going, at least through Sunday.

While this game will be closer than anyone expects and even closer than the final score will indicate, I don't see anyone but Villanova beating Villanova at this point; well, maybe God for the Ramblers sake!

Final Score: Villanova 80, Texas Tech 70

1) Kansas v. 2) Duke

Even though it may end up as the highlight game of the weekend it just screams boring to me because I have no interest in seeing either of these teams in the final. This matchup is the exact opposite of the others. It features two classic powerhouse programs who have plenty of hardware and accolades to go with their name recognition. Conversely, it truly could end up as the best game of the weekend which is why it is fittingly the bookend to it.

Kansas has been handling their business rather calmly and quietly as just another day in the office but Clemson's best team only showed up for the last fifteen minutes of the game and in that second half Clemson won 49-40. The Tigers just could not recover from too many early game mistakes. Kansas will struggle with the zone defense of Duke, who just utilized it to defeat the king of zone defense, Syracuse. Duke's shooters struggled against Syracuse and it was a true scratch and bite dog-fight to survive, which they did. If you don't believe me look at this:

-Syracuse shot 10% better from the field overall

-Syracuse shot 11% better from three point range

-Syracuse out rebounded Duke

BUT DUKE STILL WON!

Kansas better not count on Duke shooting below 20% from beyond the arc in back to back games because it's yet to happen this year.

Sidebar tangent here:

Did you all see the up close and personal shot of Pascal Chukwu's contact being replaced on the Syracuse sideline? A Duke players arm knocked into his eye-gear and resulted in needing a contact replacement and as that's occurring each viewer was able to count the number of blood vessels in his eye thanks to the camera work. Why do we need to see that? I hate observing my own finger poking my eye each morning and I certainly don't need to see a team doctor doing it for a college student? Who wants to see that? Just because we have cameras that capture everything now does not mean we need to see it.

Back to Kansas v. Duke - any star from either team could take over this matchup and impose their will on the outcome. Favored nominees would be Graham, Newman and Azubuike for Kansas; Allen, Bagley and Carter Jr. for Duke. I am instead predicting one squad will show up and the other will not; these marquee matchups rarely live up to the hype. I'm taking Clemson's late surge that Kansas had to suppress as a sign that the Jayhawks' tank is running low. Kansas has fallen in the elite eight round the past two years and I think they keep that Bill Self streak alive too. I think come Sunday they run out of fuel once again and Duke takes full advantage.

Final Score: Kansas 64, Duke 73

My final four picks: