Out with the Old, in with the Maroon & Gold (Who's making all that bRACKET? - Final Four edi
This year's final four provides us with two very different matchups yet both are rooted to classic story lines. Villanova v. Kansas is the typical top seed clash that many expected since the bracket debuted while Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan is the fantastic, unexpected feature we all hope for in March but never see coming. Make no mistake either, Loyola-Chicago is not the sole supplier of surprise on the left side of the bracket, Michigan was a final four pick in only 8% of ESPN brackets. That's a rather paltry amount compared to Villanova's 32% and Kansas' 15%. So whats likely to happen when these teams meet to setup the final chapter of madness? Will it have a fairy tale ending or will predictable Darwinian rules apply and prosper? Well, here's one possible point of insight, how many fairy tales end with a wolf on the winning side? I'm hoping this will be the first. Rather than answer this question right away let's consider the four possible Championship Game offerings to come from Saturday's slate.
The Matchup We'll Likely See: Villanova v. Michigan
Both favorites win on Saturday and we have two teams, combining for a 22 game win streak, facing off for a national championship to join their respective conference tournament hardware. This matchup will likely lead to the highest TV ratings on a Monday night since the end of the NFL regular season and for good reason. Both teams would be riding lighting hot streaks into the final. Michigan would have just defeated the darlings of the tournament and the most fundamentally sound defensive team remaining in Loyola-Chicago. Likewise, Villanova would be coming off a big victory over a championship caliber Kansas squad that will undoubtedly stretch the Wildcats and push their scoring skills to the max in order to escape with a W. If this matchup comes to fruition I'd favor whoever is coming off a worse shooting streak in the previous game, because neither of these teams stay cold for long.
The Quality Matchup Flying Under The Radar: Kansas v. Michigan
No one seems to think this matchup is going to happen because I have not heard anyone discussing it as a possibility. This would be a 7 on 7 matchup as neither team goes all that deep so fouls would likely be at a premium which, in my opinion, makes the game more enjoyable. I think Kansas would be a clear and away favorite to exploit their size advantage in the paint. If doing so landed Michigan's Wagner in foul trouble, which he is not a stranger to, including his past few games, that would make it even easier for the Jayhawks to score. However, if Michigan's deep shots are on target they would always be within striking distance. I'd expect a ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK victory if this is the matchup come Monday.
The Matchup I Most Want to See: Villanova v. Loyola-Chicago
David versus Goliath? Many will think this yes, but I say not quite, maybe more like David vs. Moses. Not old Moses, the young but wise, I'm about to lead my people out of Egypt what are you gonna do about it now that I filled the Nile with blood, edgy Moses. Loyola-Chicago, David in the analogy, would certainly not be expected to win. After all, similar to David, they would once again be out-sized and expected not to be able to rebound as a result. They would be out-talented; Villanova's roster is eight sometimes nine deep with half of them likely to spend some time shooting from beyond an NBA arc. They would be out-paced; Villanova's up tempo, fast break style play would crush the half court comfort approach the Ramblers prefer to lean on. But then again these have all been the case in the four previous matchups the Ramblers have gone on to win as well.
It did not seem to matter that Tennessee had size, Loyola out rebounded them. It did not seem to matter that Miami shot 44% from 3, they also turned the ball over six more times than the Ramblers. None of these things seemed to matter in their last two games either. They soundly lead and beat Nevada up and down the court and stat sheet after fending off the wolfpack's customary late comeback. Then, they took an early lead over K-state, never looked back and soundly whooped them. So if this dream matchup comes to fruition on Monday, throw all analytics out the window because nothing measures the true spirit of a team, stars being born in big moments or the heart of a champion! LET'S GO RAMBLERS!!!
The Matchup I'd Settle for: Kansas v. Loyola-Chicago
I also would be satisfied seeing these squads face-off as long as Loyola-Chicago wins that is! This matchup would be a little closer to David versus Goliath in scale but once again the kids from the little school that could have continued to spit in the face of predictable outcomes and likely scenarios. LOYOLA RULES!!!
SO WHATS REALLY GONNA HAPPEN ON SATURDAY?
3) Michigan v. 11) Loyola-Chicago
It continues to be an us-against-the-world fueled fire for the Ramblers. They are still +850 or more at all sports books to win it all this year so if you have some spare change lying around now is the time to invest. If they make the final they'll likely only be +250 or +300 at most depending on their opponent so take advantage now. Three previous 11 seeds have made it this far and none have advanced. But what makes Loyola-Chicago different from those past teams that looking back blame fatigue for their flame dying out in the semis? Well, they're more alike than different but I think they have one ace up their sleeve the others did not - SISTER JEAN and her good friend GOD!
Now aside from being a great title for a show to take the place of Mister Rogers' Neighborhood, I think this is a true factor. Let's look at it from the reverse angle. Could it hurt to have a faith thread linking everyone from fan to teammates in the strength of belief that "we can?" Certainly not. They have the senior leadership and maturity to make the final push. The final four venue in San Antonio will surely be the largest audience and grandest stage these students (from both teams) have ever encountered not to mention the pressure that comes with it. I believe Loyola has the ability to lock-in on nothing but each other and the game when they step out on the court and that will be invaluable. These Loyola-Chicago Ramblers have believed in themselves since the start and that faith has grown exponentially over the past three weeks ensnaring folks like me who didn't know who they were before the bracket reveal; but I learned quickly! I'm ignoring all the stats and summing up my argument in one sentence; Sometimes a strong enough belief that you can, outweighs all evidence to the contrary. Loyola-Chicago 72, Michigan 68. Sister Jean rambles on!
1) Villanova v. 1) Kansas
This matchup has the potential to be the most entertaining of the remaining three games and could wind up being the most memorable of the whole...never mind I almost forgot about UMBC beating UVA. Overall, I expect it to be overrun with lead changes and ties until the finish and Kansas may find themselves in back to back overtime games as well. When two teams are as evenly matched as these squads you rely on anything other than stats as an advantage so lets check the standard options:
Coaching: Advantage Villanova
Jay Wright has proven his superiority by building the most successful program and modeling the way to build a perennial national title contender each year since 2004. Nova has made four sweet sixteen or deeper runs including two final four trips and won a national championship in 2015-16. Even more impressive since 2004 they have only missed the tournament and had a losing season once (2011-12). Not that Bill Self has not done similar level work since joining Kansas in 2003 but he had the advantage of joining a recruitment giant and basketball blue blood versus turning the school into one like Jay Wright did. What truly sets Jay apart though is his ability to make adjustments with his teams. Exemplified perfectly in their second round defeat of Alabama this tournament. At half time Villanova led 32-27 but it felt just the opposite the way Alabama was asserting their physical presence in the paint and on the glass at both ends of the floor. The wildcats opened the second half hitting six consecutive threes and at one point went on an 18-1 tear and left the Crimson tide wondering if they ever even took the court after halftime.
Fan Base in San Antonio: Advantage Kansas
Just basing this on distance to travel and size of school and fan base. There's no shame in being out shot by the wildcats but Kansas should be humiliated if they don't out attend Villanova. Say what you will about football stadium venues removing the fans from these games but one creatively formulated and well timed quip from the stands during a critical free throw could alter the sports history landscape forever. Is it common? NO, but it could happen.
God, luck & other universal conspiring forces: Advantage Villanova
By now we're all aware of Sister Jean's role but Villanova's Fr. Rob packs a pre-game prayer punch too and shocker, he's modest just like Jay Wright. Those factors play out well with the man upstairs and every so often something amazing happens that makes us all go, "somebody up there is looking out." This may be the game where Nova needs that special something! Villanova 86, Kansas 82