The most popular version of Guess Who? - NFL Draft Pre-op predictions part 1

If team A does this then team B will do this; If so-and-so falls past five they're likely to fall to 20; If the Browns don't find their quarterback of the future the residents of Cleveland will burn the city to the ground. Draft DayOn Thursday, April 26th, shortly after Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War determines the fate of the superhero universe the 2018 NFL Draft will determine the fate of the football superstar universe, at least preliminary. Nowadays, so many mock drafts fill our sports feeds from February through April its non-stop ad nauseam of scenarios. in theaters? If they did, they definitely left laughing at the prospect of the Browns having the best draft day at the expense of the Seahawks. Man that movie sucked so bad, even its poster is shitty. What happened to you Costner? You were on the field of dreams poster and 25 years later you posed for this turd of a snapshot. He looks constipated, and you always have to appreciate the wearing an expensive suit with the top button and tie slightly undone look; classic "oh man am I stressed but still cool" vibe. Also he had to hold a football so people knew this was a movie about football, didn't want to risk the multiple NFL and NFL Draft logos in the background not conveying that message. What makes this the year Browns fans will burn their city down? They've been beaten down by so many bad decisions and draft days that it took a Hollywood script to supply them with a happy ending. The same happy ending that really made that film such a lark - people left that theater...wait did people pay to watch

Back on topic, the 2018 NFL Draft is typically so focused on who will be picked when and what each team needs, but what about what each of these projected future players need? While we can all disagree about who the best player at each position is and while Todd McShay, Mel Kiper and all the talking heads can debate on a players draft value and a teams draft capital one universal truth should be excepted by all of us. We should all agree that if a player's name comes up in the draft that athlete has a pool of potential that if fostered and cultivated correctly (while avoiding injury) could make them a star. Even when you look at "busts" and "duds" those players got to this highest level thanks to a combination of hard work, tireless effort and god-given abilities and talent. Once you except that, you get to play the game of "what if" with players in each draft. For example, what if Andrew Luck went to Washington in 2012? Where would Kirk Cousins and RG3 be today? Would DeShaun Watson have been as star studded a starter in Cleveland this past year? (Doubtful). What if Trent Richardson or Eddie Lacy got to run behind Dallas' All Star O-line unit while Zeke was grinding out 1.5 yard carries behind the zombie Giants line? It is my belief that at least half of the equation that ultimately determines a players success/value/level is dependent on the team he becomes a part of at the draft and what tools he is surrounded by on that squad. I know that is groundbreaking sounding stuff but I certainly don't hear it said enough around draft time or in arguments about a players long term success either. So approaching the first part of my Draft preview I'm going to take some of the star players, from the fantasy firepower positions (QB, RB, WR, TE), and rank them by their potential.

Lets start with everyone's favorite category, the quarterbacks.

QBs by potential:

1) Lamar Jackson (Louisville)

2) Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)

3) Josh Allen (Wyoming)

4) Josh Rosen (UCLA)

5) Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State)

All you need to know that you don't about Lamar Jackson can be read in this insightful article on The Undefeated. Its not often ESPN products measure up for me anymore but this was as comprehensive and thought provoking of profile on any NFL prospect in this year's draft. Jackson brings such an unknown upside and his athletic abilities are second to no other QB in this draft. Any moron drafting him to play WR should immediately be fired. He's not Braxton Miller, he's an intelligent strategic passer who can read defenses and almost always goes through all three progressions before using his legs to craft something out of nothing. Some misinformed folks think he was solely successful in college because the speed isn't the same and he played in a spread offense. Incorrect! The offense at Louisville under Petrino is as close to a pro style offense as you're going to see in college. In his years of playing against the likes of Shaq Lawson at Clemson, Bradley Chubb at NC State and Derwin James (just to name a few) he's been seeing top notch first round NFL talent on defenses he's faced all the time. Jackson has always risen to the occasion in meaningful games regardless of the opponent which proves he's a prime time player.

While Mayfield has given his detractors plenty of fodder to work with he's also supplied his advocates will ammo aplenty as well. Did you see the Oklahoma v. Georgia semi-final game in January? Similar to Lamar, Baker always shows up in big games and at big times. Remember how well a whole bunch of teams passing on the winningest QB last drat went? It worked at real well for Houston getting a stud future franchise leader in DeShaun Watson at 12 as the fourth QB taken. I am hopeful an exact duplicate of this mistake happens this year and my Bills become the beneficiaries of receiving one of these two QBs at 12, without moving up and giving away all their draft stock to take a lottery ticket flyer on the supposed "top 2 or 3" guys.

Our two Josh's have very different potential. Josh Allen check's almost all draft skill and measurement boxes. If you were building a robot to play quarterback he'd probably have the same measurements but you'd make sure his targeting scanners were far more accurate than Allen's. He will struggle to prove he's not rattled by the bright lights and all the pressure they bring, his athleticism may help him out of trouble early on but eventually he'll need to mature in his ability to read exotic blitz and coverage schemes so being drafted by a squad where he can sit and observe for a season would do him a world of good. He reminds me of Tim Couch in many ways and if the Browns select him #1 overall that will only deepen the comparison. Thankfully, if that does occur the Browns seem to be in a position to hand Tyrod Taylor the reigns this year and allow whoever they draft to be an understudy but we all know you can't count on patience in the NFL. If the Browns are 2-6 or worse at the mid-season mark its likely their rookie QB, whoever it may be, will be thrown to the wolves in shorter order than initially planned. Josh Rosen on the flip side has proven that he can handle the pressure and prime time focus but his hang up is does he WANT to handle it and does he even want to play football? Former UCLA Head Coach Jim Mora's comments about Rosen's work ethic and need for constant motivation paint a very lazy and leafy (Ryan Leaf-y) sounding picture to me. Sure his skill set and track record at UCLA show a truly talented player with a high ceiling, hence why his potential rank is so high on my list, but as all NFL stars will tell you the season games and playoffs we see make up about 10 percent at most of what playing professional football is all about. The majority of it is mini-camps, OTAs, daily practice and film study and that's just to be competitive and average. The real superstars and pro bowlers tend to be junkies who eat, sleep and breath pigskin. If I could put $50.00 on a bet that Rosen is not even playing in the NFL in three years, I'd do it in a heartbeat. However, sometimes all it takes to alter a path like that is the right coach, peer or mentor in the locker room or organization so who knows. Maybe Rosen lucks out and lands in New England where he can learn at the feet of the master or in Arizona behind a veteran journeyman like Bradford who becomes his unlikely Obi-Wan.

Finally, a name that has been flying under the radar somewhat despite being a senior with plenty of game time experience, Mason Rudolph. He has a propensity to miss on mid-range passes so accuracy is certainly a concern but man does he have a deep arm many scouts could fall in love with. A fun prospect for any team with a dual need at QB and WR (like my Bills) would be to pair him with his favorite target as Ok. State, James Washington. This is unlikely as Rudolph should not be a number 12 pick but if an early rush of QBs occurs I could see the Bills taking him higher than initially wanted. Washington is one of three WRs that are arguably worthy of a first round pick, at least talent wise and that is added by a lack of depth at the position this draft.

QB Dark Horses:

1) Luke Falk (Washington State)

2) Kyle Lauletta (Richmond)

These are two names to keep in mind as late draft prospects that you likely have not heard of. I work at Elon University and I watched their game against Richmond this year. I saw several flashes from Lauletta and by the second quarter I was pulling up his college stats and reading his wiki to find out who is this guy slinging darts around. Now as the draft nears, reports start coming out that he's being linked to interest by Baltimore and New England, you know just two Super Bowl winning franchises, so no big deal. And who is Luke Falk? Just a former walk-on who now owns just shy of every meaningful PAC-12 and WSU passing record. Go play around on this Sports Reference website and see how often his name comes up. At the end of the day those are just stats but once again this is all about finding the potential and in the hands of the right sculptor even a ball of clay can become art. Falk needs a sculptor or two its true, he's prone to trusting his arm too much and not making proper reads but make no mistake he's got kinetic energy aplenty.

RBs by potential:

1) Saquon Barkley (Penn State)

2) Nick Chubb (Georgia)

3) Sony Michel (Georgia)

Saquon is a stud no further information is needed, if you think you need go pull up highlights on youtube, you'll be satisfied in about a minute. Chubb and Michel were a dynamic and potent one-two punch for Georgia's offense. While most are inclined to see Chubb as the thunder and Michel as the lightning of this combo they each have elements of both attacks. Chubb is powerful but also elusive even in tight windows while Michel has bulled people over as well. Its too bad they likely won't be a duo in the pros too, but then again you never know.

RB Dark Horses:

1) Josh Adams (Notre Dame)

2) Rashaad Penny (San Diego State) - Kareem Hunt

3) Justin Jackson (Northwestern) - Tarik Cohen

Looking for the next Kareem Hunt? Look no further than Rashaad Penny. Penny is a patient but decisive runner when he hits a hole he hits it headstrong and punishes those waiting with open arms. He has enough power to break arm tackles and his speed can out pace plenty of pursuers in the open field. Or maybe your team needs the next great pass catching RB out of the backfield like Tarik Cohen? You'll want to do your research on Justin Jackson, no not the former tarheel basketball player. He's a change of pace back out of Northwestern with a real skill set. Finally if you need someone who can be both of these guys and possibly even more, you should hope your team selects Josh Adams although I'd wait til the third or fourth round to do so for any of these guys at the soonest because trust me they will still be there.

WRs by potential:

1) Calvin Ridley (Alabama)

2) James Washington (Oklahoma State)

3) Dante Pettis (Washington)

Calvin Ridley checks all the boxes but he had a few instances of fading into the background when he should have been shouldering his team to a win instead. Its hard to lay all that at his feet as the QB ultimately decides how much a WR impacts a game. To be most successful Ridley should be drafted in order to step into a supporting role and serve as a dangerous second option. James Washington has speed that builds which helps him provide big windows deep down the field for his QB, especially stemming from option routes. Washington can become a taller, stronger Brandin Cooks with the proper tutelage. He will need time to mature and should see limited time in a main role this season but look for him to be a big contributor to a team in the near future. Pettis' biggest asset and threat is that he can play from any position and run the full route tree. He ran routes in college with the confidence and precision of a pro so if that continues he'll be starting sooner than some expect.

WR Dark Horses:

1) Braxton Berrios (Miami)

2) Equanimeous St. Brown (Notre Dame)

Need a slot receiver wildcard? Braxton Beerios may have been described by NFL scouts as having T-rex arms but watching him at Miami brought memories of Wes Welker turning 2 yard crossing routes into critical first down conversions. Eqanimeous St. Brown easily has the best name of everyone in the draft but he should've stayed at ND for another year in my non-expert scouting opinion. He dropped some critical balls last year and needs to improve his route running as well as his ability to separate from tight coverage if he's to truly succeed at the top level.

TEs by potential:

1) Mike Gesicki (Penn State)

2) Hayden Hurst (South Carolina)

3) Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State)

4) Troy Fumagalli (Wisconsin)

The newest versions of Jimmy Graham and Zach Ertz are in this rather deep TE draft class, Gesicki and Goedert respectively. Hayden Hurst is likely the best overall candidate of the bunch as he's a skilled blocker as well as pass catcher and route runner. Also this may be rather premature but if Troy Fumagalli puts on 20-25 pounds of muscle he's a second generation Gronk in the making. Watching him run over tackles from skilled defensive teams while making spectacular Gronk-esque catches at Wisconsin and here's an example below.

TE Dark Horse:

1) Durham Smythe (Notre Dame)

I am certainly bias towards Notre Dame players as my favorite college team to root for but its no bias or secret that ND has become synonymous with tight end U. Currently there are four Notre Dame alums who are starting TEs on NFL rosters (Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert, Troy Niklas, Ben Koyack) and another who will likely fill a roster spot somewhere this year (Anthony Fasano). The next closest school with a claim is Miami University with two (Greg Olsen & Jimmy Graham). So aside from betting on Smythe I'm just gonna go with the numbers that speak for themselves.

Part two of my draft pre-op will include some fun predictions and possible twists you may not see coming so check back on Thursday morning for the last piece before the draft that evening.