The most popular version of Guess Who? - NFL Draft pre-op predictions part 2
Who will pick who? Who will pick whom? Whom will each team pick? One of those phrases is technically correct I'm sure. This evening's start to the NFL draft is rapidly approaching and much like Christmas or the last day of school before summer vacation the anticipation is so palpable it is oozing out of me! I can already smell the pizza and wings I'll be eating as it starts. I've already cut up the limes for my gin and tonic (G&T) and have a variety of snacks on standby for the all important follow up rounds through the weekend (like I don't always have snacks on standby, laughable). I can already hear the echoing "BOOO"s as Goodell starts his stride toward the podium; it will be impressive to pull off an echo in the large size of Jerry World especially if they have the roof open! If I close my eyes I can picture the ESPN dais filled with Chris Berman, oh wait he retired, Jon Grud...oh right he's in Oakland making seventy bajillion dollars, well Mel Kiper and Todd McShay will be there, doubt they'd miss the draft even if they had a valid reason but who the hell is anchoring this thing? (Googling, googling, googling) TREY WINGO?!? Man has anyone's star risen more rapidly as the result of jettisoning half the talent of the ESPN staff last year than this guy? Just kidding, I like Trey he's funny and not afraid to goof off in serious moments, also he rocks Elon gear regularly as the parent of an alum. GO PHOENIX!
I'm going to predict a few iterations of how the top picks from teams pan out. Each pick is determined by the one before it and influenced based on needs or my outright speculation or suspicion.
The Lethal Weapon Draft
1) Cleveland trades or selects anyone other than a QB or RB Saquon Barkley
2) NYG take RB Saquon Barkley
3) NYJ take QB of their choice
4) Cleveland trades back with Arizona, Buffalo, or another QB needy team and really sends their fan base over the edge.
Cleveland goes on to draft a QB later in the first round where they trade back to but c'mon Cleveland, Browns fans are getting too old for this $h!+.
Willy Wonka's Golden Ticket Contest
1) Cleveland selects QB Sam Darnold
2) NYG selects RB Saquon Barkley
3) NYJ selects QB Josh Rosen
4) Cleveland selects DE Bradley Chubb
5) Denver selects QB Baker Mayfield
6) Indy trades back to Arizona who take QB Josh Allen
7) TB trades back to Buffalo who take QB Lamar Jackson
Everyone in this scenario in the top seven is grabbing either the top lottery ticket player of their choosing or trading up to grab a lottery ticket at QB before they're all gone. I certainly hope that if this does happen my Buffalo Bills resist temptation and don't sell out a portion of their draft stock they have so diligently built up just to move up a few spots to grab a lottery ticket at QB. Make no mistake though a healthy Saquon Barkley is the only authentic Golden Ticket guarantee in this bunch.
The Kevin Kostner as a GM special
1) Cleveland selects RB Saquon Barkley
2) NYG having lost their star RB at two trades back to none other than Cleveland who then selects QB Sam Darnold or whichever QB is atop their list.
This move would easily seal the evening as a shock to everyone regardless of what else happened. Cleveland will have arguably acquired the top two offensive prospects in the draft for the first time since Draft Day premiered in theaters (still seems odd that film was in theaters and not a straight to DVD or freeform channel original).
The Do you have any idea what you've done? Draft - AKA my personal nightmare
This is a trip to my personal nightmare where in my Bills trade away a huge portion or all of their current and future draft stock for an average a best prospect who ends up not panning out and we're back at square one at the end of this year.
1) Cleveland take RB Saquon Barkley
2) NYG trade back with Buffalo for both of their first and both of their second round picks and possibly a key player piece like DE Shaq Lawson too. They could do this because the Giants can likely fleece whoever wants the pick of all QBs in this draft. As a result Buffalo picks QB Sam Darnold. Then I get to root for a USC QB who's bound to crash and burn its just a matter of time as to when, who's ceiling is likely Carson Palmer and who's basement is Matt Leinart with some new iteration of the Sanchez butt fumble.
It would be typical of the Bills from the last 18 years to take two steps back after taking one forward last season and some would argue they've already taken the first one by trading Tyrod and losing G Incognito to retirement and a few others to free agency. I, however, remain uncharacteristically optomistic in Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane who have shown a propensity for shrewdness and patience. They preach a focus on the future while not short selling success in the here and now and so far its hard to argue with their process but this Thursday-Sunday will provide critical subject matter for the next few chapters of their story.
The Most Likely to Succeed Storyline
What do I think is most likely to occur tonight:
1) Cleveland take QB Sam Darnold
2) NYG take RB Saquon Barkely
3) NYJ take QB Josh Rosen
4) Cleveland take DE Bradley Chubb
5) Denver CB Denzel Ward
6) Indy take OG Quenton Nelson
7) TB take S Minkah Fitzpatrick
8) Chicago take LB Roquan Smith
9) SF trade with GB who take CB Josh Jackson
10) Oakland take DT Vita Vea
11) Miami take LB Tremaine Edmunds
12) Buffalo take QB Baker Mayfield
13) Washington take DT Maurice Hurst
14) SF via trade with GB take DE Marcus Davenport
15) Arizona take S Derwin James
16) Baltimore take WR Calvin Ridley
17) Chargers take OT Mike McGlinchey
18) Seattle CB Jaire Alexander
19) Dallas take DT Da'Ron Payne
20) Detroit take RB Derrius Guice
21) Cincy take OG Isaiah Wynn
22) Buffalo take WR Courtland Sutton
23) NE trade with Carolina who take LB Rashaan Evans
24) NE via trade with Carolina take DE Harold Landry
25) Tenn take WR James Washington
26) ATL take DT Taven Bryan
27) NO take WR D.J. Moore
28) Pitt take CB Isaiah Oliver
29) Jax take QB Lamar Jackson
30) Minn take G Will Hernandez
31) NE take C James Daniels
32) Philly take TE Mike Gesicki
No matter what happens tonight we can all agree on one thing, the NFL draft is more or less a crapshoot. There are zero guarantees that anyone will pan out to their potential or avoid injury and there's just as great a chance that someone drafted in late rounds or not drafted at all becomes a star of a team as their first round assumed all-star. So while your team is whiling away the hours counting down til their pick you should make sure to lock in your draft prop bets.
DRAFT PROP BETS - my selections are in italics
First overall pick:
Darnold -240
Allen +160
Barkley +550 (Betting $10 to win $55)
Mayfield +1000
Rosen +1800
Chubb +2500
Any Other +2700
-Barkley is definitely the best value here and Mayfield is a close second since the Browns have been known to go rogue quite often in these situations.
Will any of the top 5 picks be traded on Draft Day:
Yes +225 (Betting $25 to win $56.25)
No -250
-Considering I cannot foresee a scenario where the Giants don’t trade back if the Browns take Saquon #1 this bet makes sense. There is also a chance Cleveland deals the #4 pick if they take the QB they want at #1 and somehow Chubb and Barkley are both gone by their 4th pick.
When will the first WR be taken:
Over 19.5 even
Under 19.5 -140 (Betting $10 to win $7.14)
-You have at least five possible teams who may target a WR before the 20th pick; 49ers, Bills, Packers, Ravens and Cowboys. These are pretty good odds for 25% of your chances being in play.
Number of Offensive players drafted in first round:
Over 16.5 -140
Under 16.5 even (Betting $20 to win $20)
-Good odds again on a round where teams tend to reach for the limited position groups early and many of those are on Defense this year including (CB, DE & S).
Check out these prop bets and more at www.bovada.com.