The Essential World Cup Gamblers Guide - Group Stage
The Pots were picked clean, the groups have been cast and the friendlies have finished so now the fun begins! World Cup 2018 group stage play starts on Thursday, June 14th at 11:00 AM (EST) when the "AHH motherland" takes on Saudi Arabia. This is the kickoff of two weeks chock full of group stage round robin matches. I'll share not only the best bets along this two week feast but also share a great group stage gambling sheet I made for some friends and I to fill out for friendly wager purposes. As usual, all bets and related odds are through Bovada.lv. Just to be fair I am not rich so I won't be putting money on all the bets I outline below but rather providing you with what I think are you best options from the offerings to strike gold. I'll wrap up with a ledger of what I am betting and track my success throughout the cup.
Overall winner:
Not a bad bet on the board right now, even the heavy favorites are paying out well. However, with the exception of Germany and maybe Brazil all those favorites are an injury or one bad day in group play away from having a much more difficult uphill climb to the trophy.
Smart money bets: Pick a favorite among Brazil, Germany, Spain or France and cheer for chalk until your team reaches the semi and/or final.
Middle of the road maybes: Some of the stronger middle class squads capable of making a run all the way to the trophy include Belgium, Portugal and Colombia. Each have the offensive firepower and defensive depth to win it all especially if a fortuitous path leads them to the final while avoiding the likely favorites listed above.
The "crazier things could happen" crews: Looking for a long shot lottery like pay out? Switzerland is likely the best odds on the board (+10000) given their FIFA world rank of 6th overall. The next best long shot is the same squad that might knock Switzerland from the group stage, Costa Rica (+50000). Costa Rica made an epic run to the quarterfinals in 2014 so they have been here before and know how to handle the pressure of the spotlight. A final underdog for the ages would be Iceland(+30000). The tiny nation once only known for it's villainous hockey team from D2: The Mighty Ducks became the darlings of Euro Cup 2016 and rightfully earned headlines by knocking off England in the round of 16. They have proven that was no fluke by qualifying for Russia and they'll be bringing the power of the Viking clap with them. If they can find a way out of their tough group no one will want to see them on the other side of the pitch come knockout round.
Group Winner Bets:
Group Stage betting is all about the pattern of games for each team. For some teams their first two matches will decide their fate while others get a nice warm up match against the scrub squad of their group and others are helped by a middle match reprieve. Of course the 2018 cup has a few groups where there will be no break as there is heated debate around which is truly this cup's "group of death." Lets look at the candidates:
Group C (66 - Each team listed with their current FIFA world rank)
France - 7
Peru - 11
Denmark - 12
Australia - 36
With a group total of 66 if you are going by sheer rank total this is the second lowest group behind Group E by 1 point. However, if you examine the group closer you can see that having three of the top twelve teams in one group means a squad that would likely make the knockout round in most groups will not. France is the expected favorite of the group but even one slip up for so much as a draw could cost them the top spot and a loss to Peru or Denmark could lead to no spot at all. Peru and Denmark will be ready to take full advantage of any french fallout so they better perform significantly better than in their final friendly against the young United States squad. Lucky for Les Bleus they should be able to get off on a good start if they can grab a valuable three points against the Aussies in match one. The first set of matches would be even more helpful to the French if Peru and Denmark can't break a stalemate. Australia is probably the least fortunate squad in the whole cup. If they had the good fortune to be drawn into Group A in place of Saudi Arabia they could be on the likely verge of punching a ticket to the knockout round instead they are +2500 to win the group and therefore likely around +1800 to get out of the group at all, on some site where you can bet that. In other words, the Aussies are likely headed back "down unda"* sooner rather than later.
Group D (75 total)
Argentina - 5
Croatia - 20
Iceland - 22
Nigeria - 48
Should be a walk in the park for Argentina so that takes a little bit of the challenging shine off the difficulty apple*. However, this is one of my favorite thoughts for an unseen upset in the group stage but more on that later. Typical play would say Argentina has one spot wrapped up and so Croatia and Iceland will be fighting for the remaining bid. Their final match against each other should factor heavily into the result but it may come down to how well they each fare against the Super Eagles and how many goals they give up to the Argentine side instead. The Super Eagles uptempo style of play can give squads who sleepwalk into the start of halves fits, so don't rule out the surprise draw or even upset they could pull off on a team not playing up to par.
Group E (65 total)
Brazil - 2
Switzerland - 6
Costa Rica - 23
Serbia - 34
Costa Rica is the crux of this group's difficulty. If the skilled quarter-finals squad from the 2014 WC shows up both Brazil and Switzerland best be on guard. However, if Los Ticos' time has run its course this group could get ugly, early and often for them. Serbia while capable of an upset is unlikely to see any points in this group due to a weak and aging back line. Against the fire power of their fellow Group E members the Serbian defensive roster is a recipe for disaster. The Swiss are the most balanced attack and defense in this group so I would not be shocked if they pull off a first seeding thanks to goal difference or even a head to head upset of Brazil in their first match, which could catapult them rather far on momentum alone.
To me group C is the strongest group of death candidate but E is almost evenly paced and if Argentina falters at all D will quickly become a four horse race to the finish. If you like living on the edge with your bets I'd look into a three team parlay for these groups sticking with two likely favorites and then picking your favorite underdog to a win a group. Some of my top recommendations are below. Parlay to win their respective groups:
France, Argentina & Switzerland +1450 ($5.00 to win 72.50)
France, Iceland & Brazil +2000 ($5 to win $100)
Peru, Argentina & Brazil +1725 ($5 to win $86.25)
But my real recommendation is stay away from combining these three groups into any parlays or teasers of any sort at least until after their round one matches show who's really shown up and who's dropping the ball.
Assuming favorites hold serve and group winners are Uruguay, Portugal, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Belgium, & Poland here is my favorite group winners bet:
Parlay Uruguay, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany and Belgium for a +1015 moneyline (ML) payout.
World Cup Side Action w/ a side of Friendship
Looking for a fun way to add meaning into a world cup with out cheering on the stars and stripes? Look no further than this fun World Cup Group Stage gambling sheet.
As you can see in section one each entry selects the total points and group rank finishing position for each team in each group. Section two focuses on the predicted result and final score of each match in group play and section three you can fill with whatever additional prop bets strike your groups fancy. Several friends and I are partaking so I'll share our results updates in future posts as well.
Individual Matches with a Parlay Plus:
Here are some appealing match bets to consider. I'm mostly covering only the first matches for each group right now and will post future lines I like later.
June 14
Russia v. Saudi Arabia - Draw (+335)
Let's list Russia's advantages in this World Cup opener: 1) Russia is playing at home, that's it, done! These are evenly matched teams! They're both equally terrible! So, barring a real no show by Saudi Arabia or some home cooking referees helping Russia, this should be a tightly contested match start to finish and I predict a draw for sure. Now it might be they're both so bad attacking its a 0-0 draw or they could both be so terrible defensively that its 2-2 or 3-3. I'll leave the details up to the hosts and their first guest to arrive at the party, to decide.
June 15
Uruguay (-170) to win v. Egypt
Seems like easy money to take Uruguay to win any of these group matches and anything under a -200 or higher payout is in the bettors favor. For even better odds you can take Uruguay -1 at +120.
Portugal (+345) to win v. Spain
Certainly a tough matchup but Portugal is the overall better squad, however, the history of world cup games certainly weighs in Spain's favor. Can Portugal overcome their propensity for falling short in big games and topple their rival to start off strong in group play? I think so, following their recent Euro and Confederations cup successes. However, there is a bigger reason to take this bet, the line makes no sense! Look at the full box line:
These other line amounts signal that the Portugal moneyline is too high. +200 up to +250 is much more appropriate but if there is that much money coming in on Spain that Bovada's line is up that much its just one more reason to jump on Portugal and go against the public perceived favorite.
June 16
Peru (+210) v. Denmark (+140) - Draw (+225)
Pick who you like or the draw in this one really not a bad line around as you're making plus money. I'd go draw then Denmark but I like the Peruvian squad to find a way into the knockout round especially now that Guerrero gets a reprieve from his doping disqualification. While Christian Eriksen is one of my favorite players and in my opinion still a highly underrated midfielder and offensive orchestrator extraordinaire the lack of support will leave him and his team much like a Danish* among donuts, forgotten about.
June 17
Costa Rica (+335) to win v. Serbia
I dunno what the motivation behind this high moneyline for the favorite is here unless I missed an injury report on someone crucial in Costa Rica's lineup, which according to a bunch of research I just did, I didn't. I know a great deal of soccer pundits have jumped ship on the Ticos and their recent friendly failures (defeat to England 2-0 and yesterday's Belgian buttkicking 4-1) have done little to inspire confidence but friendlies are called that for a reason and when the real whistle blows Costa Rica will be all heart and all defense with occasional aggression and I think that pays offs on this grand stage more often than not. What about when that aggression backfires in the form of a counter attack you ask? Well, it certainly doesn't hurt to have Keylor Navas standing between the ball and the net now does it? So I'll take my exceptional odds here, thank you very much. Go Ticos!
June 18
Sweden (+105) v. South Korea & Under 2 goals (even)
Both likely wins and great odds. First the under; Sweden's no goal scoring goliath like their German groupmates while the South Koreans lack fire power with only Son Heung-min as a true threat up top. But, take it from a Tottenham fan who watched him all season, he is plenty creative and skilled enough to give any back line trouble on his best days. However, I don't see them scoring on Sweden with something like 35% possession most of which will be in their own half. So, baring something brilliant by Son or blatantly foolish by the Swedes they'll leave with a valuable three points that will be needed to have any chance of getting out of group play. All that said South Korea's defense is a tough nut to crack so this will be far from a shoot out the most likely result being a 1-0 victory to Sweden with a later second half goal being the difference.
June 19
Poland -.5 over Senegal for +125
This may be a draw if Poland can't handle the spotlight or pressure of being a favorite. Senegal is the best African team in the cup, has nothing to lose and will play each group match tough and stay aggressive while within striking distance. Poland should win this game outright as they'll feel the need to gain a valuable three points before facing Colombia in the second match, this makes the half goal nothing to lay. If Senegal overextends their attack don't be surprised if a 1-0 line gets up to 3-0 rather quickly.
June 20
Last year we had the US continental Solar Eclipse and that was fun. A few years back I recall an epic meteor shower in the summer, streaking through the sky. Every so often a day of this heavenly space phenomena occurs in the gambling world and its more beautiful than the celestial alignment of stars, planets or the glow of the aurora borealis. One of these glorious opportunities is occurring on Wednesday June 20, 2018, a day I am referring to as, PARLAY PAYOUT DAY! It’s also my mom’s birthday, so I know I can’t lose! HAPPY BIRTHDAY MOM! Here's our three matches for this happiest of hump days:
8am - Portugal v. Morocco
11am - Uruguay v. Saudi Arabia
2pm - Iran v. Spain
Parlay option 1 = Portugal, Uruguay & Spain ML to win at +135 odds
OR
Parlay option 2 = Portugal and Spain ML and Uruguay -1.5 at +235 odds
When I say gambling alignment is occurring on this match day I really mean it. Uruguay should thrash Saudi Arabia on any general day and if the Saudis are coming off any draw or dare I say a defeat of Russia in match one they'll already be playing with house money and be that much more ripe for the two or more goal defeat. Meanwhile, both Portugal and Spain will have plenty to play for coming off their match one face off. If it was a draw there will be equal motivation for each to secure an invaluable three points and goals a plenty as they may be the deciding factor for the group rankings. This motivation would be doubled for whichever squad is playing the winner of round one's Morocco v. Iran match, if there was a winner. Not to mention this alignment of cupcake matchups all come on the same day in the second round so there will still be all the effort and results to play for as nothing will yet be decided. There is no fear of a team let down due to resting up for the knockouts with a group win secured already like in the third match round. All three giants will want to win and win big so hop on board now before they each play their opening match and the odds tip back in Bovada's favor.
Upsets worth some attention:
June 16: Iceland (+1000) v. Argentina or the Draw at +385
Read my outlandish but certainly possible upset pick below and you'll understand why this is here.
June 18: Tunisia (+800) v. England - moneyline to win
I'm very bipolar on England entering this World Cup. On one hand, I can't believe the amount of talent they have amassed on their roster. There is one weak spot on this roster and its the Goalkeepers but they're not bad just inexperienced. If they can get average to above average play from whoever ends up in net with the talent from Cahill, Rose, Delph, and Trippier on the back line to the stacked midfield of Alli, Dier, and Lingard to the striker force of Kane, Welbeck, Vardy, Rashford, and Sterling they should be able to easily reach the quarterfinals depending on matchups in knockout stage. On the other hand, its been 12 years since England made it past the round of 16. They typically fold in big moments and don't live up to whatever hype surrounds them. If Gareth Southgate can't get the talent on the roster to gel together and it has looked, as they say across the pond, "dodgy" at times that could spell trouble. An overachieving Tunisia squad with nothing to lose would love nothing more than to put England on high alert after an upset win to open their first World Cup appearance since 2006. I hope the first hand is correct and it’s not just because I think Harry Kane is the purest skilled precision English striker ever seen either, but that doesn't hurt the cause, I mean look what he can do with a mask obscuring his vision and likely just making him generally uncomfortable.
The man's timing and precision is unKANEy and remarkable! Enjoy, England! This is likely the start to your next golden age of national football. Boy I really hope they don't muck this up.
June 19: Senegal (+225) to win v. Poland or Draw (+220)
This line opened at +300, that's a great deal of movement for a match that is still a week away. But if you think Poland just may be the shrinking violet of this world cup elite then a Senegal quick fire attack may catch them off guard and secure a surprising but not shocking win or at the very least a draw, which is also good odds at slightly over two to one.
Now then, for my biggest opening round gambit; it is no secret that every world cup has at least one giant go down unexpectedly in the group stage. This is true for at least as far back as I can remember. In 2014, Spain imploded starting with a massive defeat to the Netherlands although you could also say Italy, England and Portugal were unexpected victims as well. In 2010, France and Italy failed to make it out of group play finishing bottom of their respective groups. In 2006, despite defeating the USA in match 1 Czech Republic did not escape the group and despite drawing with Italy in match 2 the USA also failed to escape group play. The 2002 world cup saw Portugal, Uruguay, Argentina and France miss out on the knockout rounds. The list goes on but I digress.
My on the edge of insanity, unexpected upset pick for the 2018 world cup group stage is that Argentina, relying too heavily on Messi's magic and strapped with a mediocre at best mid-field, will drop not one but two matches in group play while Croatia and Iceland find their way into the knockout round. Here's how I talk myself and maybe some of you into this possibility. Argentina is lucky to even be here, they needed a Lionel Messi miracle against Ecuador on the final days of qualifying to get to Russia. Granted, he delivered on that occasion BUT what about when he can't do it all on his own? I mean that has to happen sometime right? Dybala may be a mini-Messi in the making for future Argentina national teams but he has yet to prove he can carry the national team with little to no support; a feat Messi has had to accomplish in several world cup appearances, save for his most recent in 2014. Argentina's back line has been more unreliable than AOL dial up through their friendly campaign (see recent Spain 6-1 victory), not to mention qualifying and there is little reason to believe Jorge Sampaoli will be able to piece together a solution at this late stage. While Miracle Messi may be able to do all the attacking himself, despite having plenty of goal scoring power on the roster, Nicolas Otamendi cannot handle all the defensive duties flying solo. Meanwhile, the balanced rosters and strong midfield structures of both Iceland and Croatia make them capable of ball control and enough attack to win their matchups with Argentina. If these plots play out don't be surprised if Messi's penultimate or perhaps final World Cup goes up in flames rather than down in the record books.
The Keylime ledger: World Cup Edition** - Starting balance ($100.00)
6/15 - Uruguay -165 v. Egypt
Bet $20 to win $12.12
6/17 - Costa Rica +355 v. Serbia
Bet $15.00 to win $53.25
Parlays
6 team Group winners parlay
Uruguay, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Belgium to win their respective groups +1015
Bet $20.00 to win $203.00
June 20 - Parlay Payout day!
Uruguay -1.5 Saudi Arabia, Portugal ML to win v. Morocco, Spain ML to win v. Iran +235
Bet $25.00 to win $58.75
Futures
Overall World Cup Winner
Germany +475 - Bet $10 to win $47.50
Belgium +1100 - Bet $10 to win $110.00
*Apologies I got really predictably "punny" in this whole post, it seems.
**Anyone reading this who is not a close friend is likely unaware that Keylime was my nickname through part of High School, most of college and to some degree has stuck ever since. It is mostly used by only a close knit group of friends but I have come to enjoy it and the alliteration with “ledger” worked well so I'm using it. A much more detailed origin story of the nickname may perhaps someday appear in the Keylime Chronicles or Reynolds' Recounts, until that time let wonderment and mystery fill your mind about it.