The Essential World Cup Gamblers Guide - Group Stage Part 2
The second round games of the group stage have started with a sound defeat of Egypt by the host nation earlier today. I wish I could put down a wager on likelihood that Russia is rigging these games and a report comes out about it in next 3-5 years. I'd imagine odds on that as Yes they rigged it at -500 and going up the more success they have and No they didn't at +1000.
I've outlined some advantageous odds if you're so daring. Many of these lines are temporary based on the movements following first game results so your window to lock them in is limited. As always odds/lines are based on Bovada.lv. Before we dive in lets do a quick review of the Keylime ledger:
The Keylime ledger: World Cup Edition
Starting balance: $100.00
Current Balance: $32.12 + ($65.00 encumbered in bets) overall -$2.88
6/15 - Uruguay -165 v. Egypt - WIN (took til after the 90th minute but it was a win)
Bet $20 to win $12.12
6/17 - Costa Rica +355 v. Serbia - Loss
Bet $15.00 to win $53.25
Parlays
6 team Group winners parlay - PENDING
Uruguay, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Belgium to win their respective groups +1015
Bet $20.00 to win $203.00
June 20 - Parlay Payout day! - PENDING
Uruguay -1.5 Saudi Arabia, Portugal ML to win v. Morocco, Spain ML to win v. Iran +235
Bet $25.00 to win $58.75
Futures - PENDING
Overall World Cup Winner
Germany +475 - Bet $10 to win $47.50
Belgium +1100 - Bet $10 to win $110.00
Intriguing Round 2 matches: (Picks in Bold)
June 20th
Uruguay (Even) -2 Saudi Arabia
If Russia could drop five goals on SA then I'd expect as many if not more from a Uruguayan side who must be frustrated they only netted one ball against Egypt. A goal that came rather late into second half stoppage time but a goal nonetheless.
Portugal v. Morocco - Over 2.5 goals (+120)
Spain v. Iran - Over 2.5 goals (-130)
If you like both of these parlay them together for a +290 payout. Spain will absolutely go over so you'll be sweating out the Portugal game for scores but maybe Ronaldo will carry over his spectacular start into match two. Best part about this picture is the look of dismay on the Spanish players faces too bad Sergio Ramos isn't pictured he was probably busy illegally tackling someone though.
June 21st
Argentina (Even) ML win over Croatia
I am torn on this because based on my first post as you know I believe Argentina will not make it out of the group stage and a loss here paired with an Iceland win would all but guarantee that while a draw still puts the Argentinians on the edge of the cliff they could still get through with a win over Nigeria and a draw in Croatia v. Iceland on goal difference or as the second team behind the winner of Iceland v. Croatia. However, money is money and when the odds are best get your chips in the center. Argentina is the more talented roster including one of the top two strikers in the world and what should be an excess of motivation after the Iceland Vikings frustrated Messi and his mates.
June 22nd
Iceland (+165) v. Nigeria
Iceland proved they are once again here to play spoiler by gaining an impressive point from their draw with Argentina. This has set them up for success in one of the Groups of Death and I don't see them blowing all that hard work against a young but outmatched Super Eagles team that seemed just content to be on the field with Croatia and really did not show up as an attacking side that many expected to see.
Serbia (+200) v. Switzerland (+155)
The line on this is a pick and paying way less than the moneyline so if you're going to bet either side take the moneyline and not the stupid odds on a pick 'em.
June 23
Belgium v. Tunisia - Over 2.5 goals (-130)
Germany v. Sweden - Over 2.5 goals (-120)
Dodgy at best but I'd anticipate the Belgian goal frenzy to continue and Tunisia showed they have an attack that can deliver against a talented English back line. Logic would also expect that a frustrated German side would be ready to unleash hell on whoever is in their path after loosing to Mexico. So I expect Das Boots to be firing balls all over the pitch. However, Sweden's defense could frustrate Germany too and even another goalless effort, even for a half, could compound their frustrations and lead to even more of the "yips" from their strike force. Eventually missed shots become more of a mental obstacle than any real physical one on the field and even with their recent success and pedigrees that could impact the German players if they don't score soon. Its about a 10% chance of happening and the only real concern about this bet. Once again if you like them both parlay them for a +225 return.
June 24
Senegal (+105) v. Japan - ML to win
Columbia (+110) v. Poland - ML to win
I like both of these so I'm going to parlay them for a +330 payout. Senegal showed a powerful attack force against a Polish side that seemed to lack creativity and fire power in the final third of the field. Meanwhile, Columbia was arguably the better side with one less man against Japan and never stopped attacking which provided plenty of chances they just could not find the net a second time.
Futures:
On the group winner future odds I'd take a look at the following:
Group A winner: Uruguay +125
Group B winner: Portugal +170
Group D winner: Iceland +900
Group E winner: Switzerland +425
Group H winner: Columbia +500
Iceland and Switzerland both managed a point against their toughest opponent in their respective group. That means they each fully control their respective fate. If they win their two remaining games they will end up in first place and there are a bunch of other scenarios that end the same way too. I know Columbia may seem like an odd choice here but despite losing to Japan with ten men I expect them to win their final two matches and certainly expect Japan not to win out nor win/draw out so now is the time to invest buy low and cash in big!
Overall Cup Winner:
Germany's odds have gone from +475 to +800 so invest now or double down if you still have faith in Die Mannschaft!
Portugal's odds have also increased to benefit all of us (+1800).
Additions to Keylime's ledger:
Parlay: Portugal v. Morocco. & Spain v. Iran - both over 2.5 goals (+290) $10 to win $29.00
Iceland +165 moneyline to win v. Nigeria - $10 to win $16.50
Futures - PENDING
Overall World Cup Winner - Germany +800 - Bet $10 to win $80.00 (Most commonly known as a Deutschland double down)
Enjoy the round two matches! Check back on Sunday, June 24th for final round of group stage plan insights.