The Essential World Cup Gamblers Guide - Group Stage Part 3
We're through the first two matches of each group. Here is where every team stands.
Eliminated Teams: Egypt, Saudi Arabi, Morocco, Peru, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Panama, and Poland
Teams qualified for knockout round: Russia, Uruguay, France, Croatia, England and Belgium
Teams controlling their own destiny: Iran, Nigeria, Serbia, Brazil, Switzerland, Mexico, Japan, Senegal and Columbia
Teams with an extreme long shot: South Korea and Australia
Check out the insane long shot permutations to how South Korea can get through what has become the true group of death, along with the extremely complicated system of tiebreakers that may come into play in Groups B, D, E, F, G & H. With all but two groups possibly being impacted by tiebreakers to some extent, we very well may see lots drawn to determine who moves on or wins a group, both exciting and highly insane. I mean drawing lots? In 2018? If we have to go such an absurd route can't we at least get an emphatic broadcasting of the head coaches playing best of three Rock, Paper, Scissors?
With so much still up for grabs there's opportunities aplenty for some parlays and payouts and they start first thing Monday morning! Payouts almost as good as this meme, which should be called How I Made Your Mexican national team even better:
Match lines: My picks in Bold
Uruguay (+170) v. Russia (+195) Draw (+205)
Its impossible for Uruguay to win the group without beating Russia but the hosts have been on fire and are one of three teams with the most goals scored so far (8). Russia has put the hammer to their opponents when they were no sure bet to make it out of the group. Meanwhile, the overwhelming favorites of Group A, Uruguay, have defended their way to two unimpressive 1-0 wins over Saudi Arabi and Egypt. A win will still put Uruguay on top of the group but Russia's renewed attack force and ability to find the net shows no signs of slowing down and having the home crowd in their corner has been helpful as well. Even if Uruguay manage an early goal they will continue to play content behind their own half and rely on defending the 1-0 lead and Russia will likely find an equalizer eventually. The draw is very attractive here but I'm finally hitching onto the Russian bandwagon before their ride is over.
Spain & Portugal to win (+110) money line (ML) parlay
Spain is -300 and Portugal is -160 to win their respective matches against Morocco and Iran. Considering they both need to win to still qualify there is plenty of motivation for both sides. The only fret is if Portugal decide to make due with a draw after a late equalizer.
Australia (+200) v. Peru (+145)
Australia has been playing very well in group stage and in fact they'll likely be the most disappointing team to see not make the knockouts based on recent play. They were the better team on the pitch against France and just could not find a way to close out a draw or get a winning result. They followed that up with a gritty draw against Denmark who was very motivated to earn a win and qualify for the knockouts before having to do so against France. Now the Aussies fate lie in a win over Peru with enough goals to overcome a current 2 point goal differential while also hoping France will defeat the Danes.
I'm not putting any bets on the Group D matches but just wanted to take a minute to say I was very disappointed to see Iceland blow their match against Nigeria but man what a fight of kits that match was. I hope Iceland finds a way out of the group although I would be okay with Nigeria making it out too, whatever ends the undeserved run of Argentina is ok in my book. Sorry Messi, I do feel bad for you but the rest of your team don't deserve to advance.
Brazil & Switzerland to win ML parlay
Brazil is -210 and Switzerland is -130 respectively to win their matches. Both still need a win to guarantee a spot through and I don't see either of them dropping a match. Costa Rica may play spoiler for their pride’s sake in eking out a draw but if you like this pairing and the earlier one of Spain & Portugal add them together for ML parlay wins for a +465 payout.
South Korea +2 (-120) v. Germany
Want an underdog to root for in this final round - it doesn't get more unlikely than South Korea finding a way through by finishing second in the group. The easiest scenario is they beat Germany by two goals or more and Mexico beat Sweden but if its any result other than 2-0 to South Korea, a whole bunch of messed up tiebreakers get involved so slim chances to say the least. However, the way Germany has been lackadaisically waltzing through their group games so far nothing seems out of the realm of possibility. South Korea +2 at -120 is worth the risk if you want to cheer on an underdog.
England (+185) v. Belgium (+165) Draw (+225)
Tied on six points and a +6 goal differential, if they draw in this match it would come down to fair play (England currently has the edge with 2 yellow cards to Belgium's 3). Frankly, I'm rooting for England to get one more yellow card than Belgium in this match and for it to end in a draw so that the teams draw lots for who tops the group and who finishes second. A good future bet to consider is Harry Kane at +200 to finish with most goals, he sits atop with five right now Ronaldo (+325) is right on his heels with four.
I'm not touching Group H with a ten foot pole although I do favor Columbia to top the group. They had an impressively dominate performance over Poland and they even outplayed Japan for the majority of their game with only ten men.
Group Winner Parlays:
Uruguay, Spain, France, Croatia, Brazil, Mexico & Belgium to win respective groups (+995)
This is the big ticket if you really want to stretch the limit on a parlay. The dodgy ones here are well, all of them but France and Croatia.
France, Croatia & Belgium to win respective groups (+155)
Still a good payout and far more likely.
Uruguay (+165) to win Group A
Belgium (+115) to win Group G
The best odds individually considering their current standings and playing their main competition for the mantel of the group. Parlay them together for a (+405) payout which is what I'm doing of course.
Additions to Keylime's ledger:
Uruguay & Belgium to win respective groups (+405) - $10 to win $40.50
Portugal, Brazil, Spain & Switzerland to win their last group match (+465) - $10 to win $46.50
Uruguay, Spain, France, Croatia, Brazil, Mexico & Belgium to win respective groups (+995) - $5 to win $49.75
The Keylime ledger: World Cup Edition
Starting balance: $100.00
Current Balance: $42.62 + ($55.00 encumbered in bets) overall +$7.62
6/15 - Uruguay -165 v. Egypt - WIN (took til after the 90th minute but it was a win)
Bet $20 to win $12.12
6/17 - Costa Rica +355 v. Serbia - Loss
Bet $15.00 to win $53.25
Parlays
6 team Group winners parlay - Loss
Uruguay, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Belgium to win their respective groups +1015
Bet $20.00 to win $203.00
June 20 - Parlay Payout day! - Loss
Uruguay -1.5 Saudi Arabia, Portugal ML to win v. Morocco, Spain ML to win v. Iran +235
Bet $25.00 to win $58.75
-So pissed Uruguay pathetically only managed 1 goal vs. Saudi Arabia.
Portugal v. Morocco. & Spain v. Iran - both over 2.5 goals - Loss (+290) $10 to win $29.00
Iceland +165 moneyline to win v. Nigeria - $10 to win $16.50 - Loss
To win their second group match: Portugal, Spain, Uruguay, Switzerland, Belgium, Germany - $5 to win $50.50 - WIN
To win their second group match: Germany, Mexico, Belgium - $10 to win $25.00 - WIN
Futures - PENDING
Overall World Cup Winner
Germany +475 - Bet $10 to win $47.50
Belgium +1100 - Bet $10 to win $110.00