The Essential World Cup Gamblers Guide - Knockout Round - Saturday Edition
What an exciting group stage! The German champions are out and not just out but finished fourth in their group so they crater bombed out of group play. 35 games were completed before a scoreless draw and Columbia became the only team this Cup to lose their first match but still go on to win their group. All this to say: "So the knockout round will either live up to all that excitement or be full of zero, zero defensive bouts that bore the crap out of the average American viewer but since there's only about 80 of us watching it may not matter." The group stage has shown us how unpredictable the World Cup can be; fortunes can change on a dime with any star pulling up from a nagging injury or a bad tackle turned red card. One thing is for certain, with the right bounce of the ball any of the remaining 16 teams can find a path deep in the knockout round, (well maybe like 12 of them). Over the next few days I'll outline the formula for how each team likely finds themselves hoisting the trophy in Moscow on July 15th, starting with our first four teams facing off today. However, first let's take a look at the Keylime ledger.
Keylime Ledger
Started Group Stage with $100.00
Finished Group Stage with $127.05
Currently encumbered funds: $30.00 on Future bets
-$10 on France (+850) to win the World Cup
-$10 on Croatia (+1000) to win the World Cup
-$10 on Belgium (+1100) to win the World Cup
Additional bets:
-Spain (+110) -1 v. Russia - $10 to win $11
-France -.5, Spain & Belgium to win their first match (+428) - $15 to win $64.17 (add Brazil to this Parlay and it goes up to +690)
Here's the bracket if you have not seen it yet. All games are now loser goes home until the semis in which the losers play each other to figure out who's slightly less of a loser after the first loser.
FRANCE
If Les Bleus are to make the deep run many expect, they'll need to find the cohesion they have been lacking in their group stage matches especially in the final third where they have struggled to finish opportunities despite plenty of striking power from Pogba, Griezmann, Giroud and copains. They also need to bring consistent play for all 90 minutes of a match rather than simply shining at varying times throughout it. On the plus side, Hugo Lloris is showing why he is regarded as one of the best keepers in the world allowing only one goal in the group stage which was off a penalty shot. Make no mistake if France goes on to lift the trophy for the second time, only twenty years after their first, Hugo Lloris will be a big reason why, perhaps the biggest. While folks have slated France's side of the bracket the harder of the two I think there's an argument that the French have drawn the hardest path of all. They start against a squad no one expected to play the role of underdog in Argentina and while their play has left plenty to be desired any team with Messi cannot be overlooked. If they make it over that hurdle Portugal or Uruguay await; one side posing the toughest defensive line on this side of the bracket and the other bringing their own star power player in Ronaldo. Next they will most likely have to defeat either Brazil or Belgium not to win the world cup just to get to the final! It's a gauntlet but if they run it successfully, it would be hard not to place them as the number #1 team in the world immediately (even running 3/4 of it should put them in the top two or three).
ARGENTINA
They shouldn’t have even qualified for the cup. They shouldn't have survived the draw and loss in their first two group games but yet here they are primed for an upset run back to the finals. Every team has its doubters but you'd be hard stretched to find anyone who isn't doubting the Argentinian team right now. This group will either be unified by the belief they have in each other and rally from a "backs against the wall, we're all we've got" mentality or they will implode from the continuous build up of expectations that cannot be met through star power alone. Messi is in all deserved rights one of the greatest to ever strike a soccer ball but this squads talent and ability really does not extend beyond that. They are a one trick pony and unless France is caught in a slumber I don't see how this undeserved underdog wins but if they do I don't think there is anyone who wants to play them. For them to go far they must fix their back line which is full of holes and almost too easy to expose on counter attacks and Messi must rise to an entirely different level than he ever has before; a super saiyan of soccer one might say. However, its not beyond the realm of possibility if France has a bad day or Argentina catches them napping they could sneak out another win. Then they'd find themselves up against either Uruguay (a squad they're very familiar with) or Portugal (another team still trying to find its consistent cohesion). Suddenly, an unlikely scenario becomes reality if after two wins Argentina is finishing no worse than 4th in this World Cup.
URUGUAY
The other powder blue players will get their first true test of the tournament when they match up against Portugal. Uruguay's group was more like a preseason warm up or training camp. Yet even finishing first, with nine points, sounds a lot more impressive than it looked. They struggled to score against both Egypt and Saudi Arabia having both goals come from set pieces. They appeared to get their chemistry back on track scoring three goals against Russia but that is a questionable Russian defense to say the least. Portugal will provide a measuring stick and frankly should defeat the Uruguayans if both teams play their best, however, how often does that happen? If Uruguay can continue to exert defensive dominance and pitch shutouts they don't mind playing the patient game and grinding out 1-0 victories. A path that could take them all the way to the final if they avoid a potent scoring squad like Brazil or Belgium in the semis. That path likely takes them through an overtime or two and likely a PK shootout but anything can happen, right? If they really want to make a run the goals will need to continue to come as they did in the last match, because its a heck of a lot easier to sit on two or three goal leads than one.
PORTUGAL
It starts and ends with Ronaldo, SURPRISE! He opened group play by scoring the same number of goals as the entire Spanish national team. Now we wait to see when and how he'll end it. Could it be by hoisting the World Cup trophy? Yes! Could it end tomorrow around 4pm (EST) after blown opportunities or a disappointing PK shootout? Sure! And hell, that sounds like more fun. Much like Argentina, this Portugal team often relies too heavily on Ronaldo to do all the work in the front half of the pitch. While he works hard and makes ridiculous goals look simplistic with little flicks or by firing with pinpoint accuracy from distance, HE CANNOT DO IT ALL ALONE! Silva, Silva & Silva (no that's not an immigration law office partnership) need to step up in their respective roles as starters and sub. Pepe is at his best defensively when he can join the attack and at least one of the mid-fielders other than an almost 35 year old Quaresma, needs to show themself as a scoring threat. The more danger teams feel from players lined up behind Ronaldo the more space he gets to work with, which is when he most dangerous and potent. If Portugal can put all its pieces together and play to their team strengths they can easily bring some hardware home to keep that 2016 Euro Cup trophy company. Portugal is my dark horse to win it all, in part because very little attention is being paid to them. They're currently +2200 to win it all.
Picks for Knockout Round - Saturday, June 30th:
France 2-1 over Argentina - Over 2 goals (Even)
Portugal 1-0 over Uruguay - Under 2 (-130)
Check back tomorrow morning for my preview of Sunday's matches and possibly more.
*Any and all odds shown above in article are from Bovada.lv.