The Essential World Cup Gamblers Guide - Knockout Round - Sunday Edition

Continuing through the knockout round teams and how each would make a deep run here is my dissection of the Sunday match teams.

SPAIN

The Spanish side started with a flurry of three goals against rival Portugal but had to settle for a draw. They went on to win the group rather quietly with a hard fought 1-0 win over Iran and they dozily drew 2-2 with Morocco to win the group on the more goals scored tiebreaker with Portugal. Thus, they are flying pretty comfortably under the radar as a firepower packed squad but make no mistake they are very capable of putting up a 4, 5, 6 goal scoreline while surrendering few if any opportunities on their own net let alone goals. The problem with feast or famine scoring is that the famine usually comes at the most inopportune time. Spain's toughest opponents on their side of the bracket will likely be Croatia, England or Columbia if they end up facing any of them. Croatia can play patient opossum and counter strike very potently even against a talented back line of Spain and a global talent in goal in De Gea. For Spain to retake their throne atop the futbol world they need to keep the creativity flowing in the final third and goals will naturally come. They already possessed the ball an average of 73% in their group games so they will have ample time to find the opportunities against a Russian side who took advantage of weak competition in their group before crashing back to Earth against Uruguay. This is likely the last ride for a few of Spain's starters from the 2010 winning team and perhaps penultimate for others so don't expect them to bow out without a fight.

RUSSIA

The host country is one of the four teams I don't see a path to the finals or semis for barring a string of absolute miracle results and I'm talking stuff they make movies about. It would be interesting to see a Hollywood approach to filming that - who would play Putin? Tom Felton (Draco Malfoy)? Simon Pegg (Shaun of the Dead)? And who would play the Russian payoff guy, dropping suit cases of money at the refs' locker room before each match or the chiseled intimidator dropping a folder of facebook siphoned blackmail material on the opposing coach's hotel bed? I think that role is perfect for Ron Perlman.

Back on track, Russia certainly captured lightning in a bottle, winning their first two group matches and delivering eight goals in the process, after winning only two of their past ten matches leading up to World Cup play. Russia was not even favored to escape group play so they've already over achieved. They should be pleased if they don't get blown out by Spain. Uruguay exposed the host nation's weak back line, lack of players who can control possession and connect crucial passes. The only silver lining has been the newly ignited creative spark in the final third and their strikers finding net. Point being, barring some divine, nay, KREMLIN intervention Russia should bow out to Spain but the home crowd may be enough to make it a tight one.

DENMARK

The Danes are another of the four teams for whom I do not see a path forward. That makes me a little sad because Christian Eriksen is my second favorite Spurs player and easily in my top five favorite players to watch right now. I would argue he is the most creative and precise long ball passing mid-fielder playing currently. The problem is there is not enough skill and talent surrounding him on the Danish roster. They will give Croatia all they want in what I expect to be a defensive battle and may even need overtime or the first PK shootout to decide. The problem is if they do work a way through a very dangerous Croatian side Spain is likely waiting in the wings for them and I don't see the Danish team matching the scoring intensity from the Spanish side. I suppose a huge Russian upset of Spain would clear a path to the semis for Denmark if they beat Croatia but you already know how likely that is.

CROATIA

A sound topping of Group D (one of the veritable groups of death) has made the Blazers a favorite pick of many a fan and analyst alike, yours truly included. Croatia relies on a strong mid-field presence anchored by Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic. They can possess the ball if they want (averaging just over 51% in group games - which is a little misleading as they played with a big lead over Argentina most of the second half allowing them to hold the ball and throwing off would would be more like a 60% average). However, they are also comfortable counter attacking when their opponent turns over the ball and if that turnover comes around midfield or in the opponent's own half look out, because Croatia, true to their nickname, will be blazing to the goal. Their defensive play is not easy to penetrate as their back line has given their opponents plenty of trouble with offside traps as well as clever marking and switching in their final third on the few set pieces they have conceded. They have only allowed one goal and it was off a penalty to a talented Iceland team. Croatia is as talented a roster as you'll find in this World Cup despite only seeing a few household names for the average soccer fan. Assuming they beat Denmark, if they can outplay Spain, their likely quarterfinal opponents, the sky is really the limit for the Blazers who are capable of winning their first world cup ever.

Picks for Knockout Round - Sunday, July 1st :

Spain 3-1 over Russia - Over 2.5 (take Spain -1 for +110 too)

Croatia 2-0 over Denmark - Under 2 if I had to choose but I'd stay away from it if at all possible.

Current record in knockout round picks: 2-2 (1-1 match; 1-1 O/U)

Check back tomorrow morning for my preview of Sunday's matches and possibly more.

*Any and all odds shown above in article are from Bovada.lv.