The Essential World Cup Gamblers Guide - Knockout Round - Monday Edition
Continuing to work through each of the round of 16 teams potential path to the final. Today we'll focus on the Monday match teams.
BRAZIL
The de facto favorites prior to the World Cup and even more so after Germany's unexpected exit, find themselves facing the same team that delivered the first roundhouse kick to the former champions, Mexico. Brazil need only play their up tempo style and continue to pressure their opponents which will lead to chances and then they must hope their creativity is enough to finish them. When the Green and Yellow are finding daylight in the final third it leads to a ball in the back of the net more times than not, and they have proven in the opening round that Neymar is not the only weapon in their arsenal. Coutinho, Paulinho, and Thiago Silva all have as many or more goals than the young star striker. Brazil's weak spot showed up in their opening match with Switzerland. The Swiss were physical with Brazil from the first whistle and it threw them off their game. Neymar tried plenty of falling when fouled and even flopping when not fouled but it did not help them defeat the Swiss. If other teams, Mexico included, follow this same approach it could spell trouble for the Brazilian side. Outside of an unexpected upset Belgium and France are the likely roadblocks for Brazil and while France has the speed to hang with Brazil's pace, Belgium has the roster talent to match Brazil and the firepower to outscore them too. All the pressure lies on Brazil as they are the favorites and they should win if all matches were played out on paper but, as one of my favorite commentators was fond of saying, "that's why they play the game!"
MEXICO
If El Tri hope to pull off at least one more Goliath sized upset in this World Cup here are the necessary elements:
1) Ochoa needs to repeat his impenetrable, wall like performance from the Germany match.
2) Bring every ounce of attacking creativity they have into the limited chances they'll likely have in Brazil's back end.
3) Work to earn set pieces deep in Brazil's territory.
4) Hope for a few moments of luck in their favor including on those set pieces.
5) Hope Brazil brings their C or D rather than A game.
Mexico showed their best in the first two games of group play followed by showing their worst in game three. So once again this match will be a coin flip as to which side shows up. We know Hector Moreno won't be showing up due to his accumulated yellow cards in group play and that leaves a big question mark smack dab in the middle of Mexico's back line. Expect Brazil to probe that central avenue early and often and really test it regardless of who is slotted in (Rafeal Marques being most likely but Osorio could surprise with Ayala in the lineup after all he is called the tinkerer for a reason). Mexico has the heart and determination at their key skill positions (Goalie, Forward, Mid-field) to make a deep run at this World Cup and based on their start in group play they showed they believe in their potential too! Hopefully, the collapse against Sweden serves as a wake up call rather than a hangover for tomorrow's match.
They also cannot allow emotion to overtake them. An early Brazil goal should cause them concern but if they begin spiraling as soon as that happens their streak of missing out on the World Cup quarterfinals will continue to grow. Along with France, I believe Mexico is the other team that could argue they have the most difficult path just to appear in the final match let alone win it. First up - Brazil, followed likely by Belgium (so ya know, just two of the top three squads left in the tournament), then a semi-final match against France or Uruguay. If El Tri get even one win from that list they should leave with their heads held high. If they win two or more against that list of competition, Enrique Nieto, the Mexican President, is liable to start making claims that they're going to build a 50 foot golden statue of Juan Carlos Osorio and make their losing opponent countries pay for it. On second thought, there's only one president bat-shit crazy enough to tweet something like that, let alone say it.
JAPAN
The Land of the Rising Sun is also looking to fill the role of Cinderella in this World Cup bracket. Their 62nd FIFA world ranking at the outset of group play did not stop them from shocking both Columbia and Senegal with win/draw results, respectively and helped them escape with second place in the group. However, they now face a determined and brutal attacking force in Belgium who put up the most goals (9) in the group stage. Japan is usually lauded for their disciplined defense, turned offense style and while this back line has proven it can withstand a siege (see the Columbia match) it has not proven to be impenetrable nor capable of a clean sheet. While the Samurai Blue have easily the coolest nickname of the remaining 16 teams they likely don't have a realistic chance of continuing their surprising run, save for a Belgian collapse akin to Spain's meltdown.
BELGIUM
My favorite to win it all. Along with Germany, Belgium was my pre-cup selection as the winner. Germany was one hell of a misfire but one not many, if any, saw coming so I'm gonna take a mulligan on that and stick to my guns with Belgium. And speaking of guns, did you see some of the nine goals they fired into nets in the group stage? De Bruyne has a knack for placing the ball in the perfect spot and is almost always on the same page as his strikers, almost like he's reading their minds when setting them up for opportunities. Vertonghen and Alderweireld anchor arguably the second best back line remaining (the first being Uruguay's) but the real threat posed by the Red Devils is their propensity for scoring goals. The group stage showed they like to score and score and score some more. Now, sure, they were supposed to win their group and they did so rather easily including their backups win over England's B-team but they did not struggle like other favorites in group. They were so successful you could argue they really only played 1.5 games with their starters full force. Their expectations are high and rightfully should be. A finish outside the top four should be viewed as a disappointment, unless it is to the eventual winners, such as a quarterfinal loss to Brazil, which is highly possible. I see Belgium felling Mexico after their upset of Brazil and then having a finals quality level match with France where they manage to prevail before playing the real final for the trophy. Part of a recipe for an early Belgian exit is them beating themselves to some degree (not finishing open chances; making stupid mistakes; overlooking an opponent with nothing to lose - see Spain on Sunday morning for an example). Barring that we should see them for a few more games.
Picks for Knockout Round - Monday, July 2nd:
Mexico 4-3 over Brazil in OT - Over 2.5 (+105)
Belgium 3-0 over Japan - Over 2.5 (Even)
*Parlay the overs together for +242 odds but do so at your own risk since its logical these games will be high scoring if they follow the illogical pattern of this World Cup so far they'll probably struggle to have three goals between them.
Current record in knockout round picks: 3-3-1 (2-2 match; 1-2-1 O/U)
Check back tomorrow for my preview on Tuesday's final round of 16 matches.
*Any and all odds shown above are from Bovada.lv