World Cup Quarterfinal Craziness
Friday features the first two of four quarterfinal matchups, France v. Uruguay and Brazil v. Belgium. Since this World Cup has already seen several beyond unexpected outcomes I thought I'd play out the scenarios for each of the games that would keep fans' mouths agape in awe! Strap in for an overuse of exclamation points!! SEE!!! I'll also continue to provide my picks for each game so you can hopefully wager against them, as that's been the recipe for success thus far in the knockout round.
Friday, July 6 @ 10AM - Uruguay v. France
Uruguay will reportedly be without Edinson Cavani for this match meaning their dangerous duo up top will be cut in half leaving France to focus all their attention on Luis Suarez as the sole striker. This will heavily deplete the scoring threat of Uruguay who was offensively suspect in their first two matches and been relying on counter strikes as their main weapon all tournament. France is without one of its own as well, due to suspension. Midfielder Blaise Matuidi will miss the match from accumulated yellow cards across the first four matches. Despite these missing pieces for each side there are no excuses at this stage of the tournament, teams must bring their best and its an expected "next player up" mentality. So what would make this matchup surprising? Crazy? Wild even? Well, PKs almost always make games memorable and classic but I'm going deeper than that. The way Uruguay have preferred to play off the defensive foot and the way France have been an attacking force a shocking start would be Uruguay playing very open and throwing numbers forward trying to find the early advantage. Uruguay comes out and catches France off guard with a depleted but no less effective attack and scores twice in the first five minutes. France does not find a goal until the final five minutes and then equalizes in stoppage time! they head to extra time where each team finds a goal and they still end tied and head to the dreaded and always exciting penalty kick shootout! Wow! What high drama that script would hold. It would also be rather shocking if one of these sides came out and completely dismantled the other such as a 5 to 1 or worse result.
Friday, July 6 @ 2PM - Brazil v. Belgium
Ah, the main course of the day! I see this as the most important remaining matchup as I believe the winner of this game will be the team lifting the trophy come July 15th. Pretty rough way to exit for the losing team if that's the case. Belgium should be fully awake after Japan rang the alarm clock twice before the Red Devils stopped hitting snooze last match. However, as I've said before, nearly every championship run in almost any sport has that game or moment that truly defines the heart of a champion and Belgium's just might have been the comeback from 0-2, to beat Japan 3-2 in regulation...if they go on to become the champions; if they lose before then people will think "yeah, they should've lost to Japan." The first half of that game, Belgium was just not fully in rhythm but was still finding and creating opportunities. They struck posts, just missed on a timing pass or had the ball glance a hair too high/low/right/left of the goal and even the announcers kept saying "you just get that feeling, this may end up being one of those games where everything just went against them." But twenty minutes into the second half being down 2-0 Belgium stoutly exemplified that great teams make their own luck and did just that on what may have been the most unlikely, impossible angled header into goal I've ever witnessed. Jan Vertonghen was surely not expecting his header to rise over the crossbar and then hit a gravity well and be immediately pulled to earth at a ninety degree angle into the net, it even glanced ever so slightly off the crossbar on its way down and STILL nestled perfectly into the corner. Watch it below if you have not seen it. His goal seemingly reversed what appeared to be the momentum tide of luck working against the Belgians and ignited their fire leading to two more goals, including the winner before stoppage time expired. (Vertonghen wasn't the only Tottenham Hotspur saving his national team's bacon in the first stage of knockouts, but more on that later.)
Brazil, meanwhile, has dispatched three straight opponents without much trouble since their opening draw against the Swiss. Mexico never really pushed their weight around effectively against Brazil and thus the favorites used their speed and methodical passing patterns to paralyze El Tri. They scored and later suffocated any chance of a Mexican equalizer by holding possession skillfully until the second goal sealed the match. I expect the same approach from both teams so what would be surprising from these very explosive sides? A defensive bout, showcasing who else but their goalies, of course! Can you imagine a 0-0 draw going into extra time in this match? What about the insanity of a 0-0 draw going into PKs? Shockingly enough the O/U is only 2.5 and the Under is -120 so maybe Vegas knows something I don't (likely they know to zig every time I zag). It seems silly to me that two teams who have combined for 19 goals in 8 matches (Brazil with 7; Belgium with 12) would play to a 0-0 or 1-1 draw but that would be crazy right?
Saturday, July 7 @ 10AM - England v. Sweden
England exercised their penalty kick shootout demons with a win over Columbia but they should not be complacent and satisfied with that as their crowning achievement of this World Cup. The way their side of the bracket has shaken out they are the odds on favorite to make the final but as we've seen the title of favorite has had little to do with who wins. Sweden will test England's resolve and patience just as they did to Switzerland. If England can keep consistent pressure on the Swedes they should be able to cash in but if they get impatient or sloppy in the midfield don't be surprised if a Sweden counter catches the Three Lions napping. Where will the craziness come from in this match? Well a Sweden ass-kicking of England would be pretty unexpected. At +370 money line odds to win Sweden is the least expected side to triumph this round according to Vegas. However, I bet I could get you to buy into the following scenario as plausible. England coming off the high of PK victory and praise from the media and country alike plays a lackadaisical first half including an unfortunate early exit for Kane due to a nagging hamstring and find themselves down 1-0 early in the second half. They struggle to establish any offensive organization or semblance of attack and quietly exit the tournament just as all of England was starting to believe in their chances at a title (pretty perfect timing if you consider England's penchant for choking).
Spurs Sidebar
Hugo Lloris (France), Christian Eriksen (Denmark), Son Heung-Min (South Korea), Davinson Sanchez (Columbia), Mousa Dembele & Jan Vertonghen (Belgium), Toby Alderweireld, Harry Kane, Dele Alli, Eric Dier, Kieran Trippier and Danny Rose (All England) - these were/are the Tottenham Hotspurs playing in the World Cup. They have combined to score ten goals and save five goals on target in nearly 3,000 game minutes played and are achieving so much more in each match. The English team has Tottenham players to thank for three of its four makes on PKs against Columbia! Eriksen pulled Denmark within PKs of beating a far more talent balanced Croatian side and that was after escaping a skilled and scary group of death. Harry Kane is leading the golden boot race by two goals with six currently and no signs of slowing down. Hugo Lloris may wind up winning the Golden Glove if France continue winning. Even Son Heung-Min showed the creative flares in his team's games that garnered him such admiration and esteem this year, including a goal that helped send the German defending champions home early. The long drawn out point I am making is, you're welcome England, and all world cup fans for enjoying the fantastic fruits of Mauricio Pochettino's labors during his Tottenham tenure. The man clearly knows a thing or two about developing and fostering talent as well as showing players how to blend their play with others and find a natural chemistry on the pitch no matter the jersey they wear. The Spurs will keep marching on and I'll be slightly surprised if none of them are playing in the final. In keeping with my craziness theme I'll be downright shocked if none of them make the semis! Oh when the spurs go marching in!
Saturday, July 7 @ 2PM - Croatia v. Russia
The meeting of the underdogs! Well, in a sense. Russia is carrying enough underdog stink to cover that whole side of the bracket. I, like everyone, including Russian fans, supporters and even their national team members who played the game, was shocked to see them pull off one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history! Their game plan was simple, play defense as if our life depends on it because it does and try for a counter when its safe/we can and hope we get very lucky. Well eleven minutes in that plan could have gone the way of the Soviet Union but rather than take an uncomfortable, more aggressive approach they stayed the course absorbing attacks and attempting counters when possible, but at least they had 89 minutes to find an equalizer. However, it only took thirty for Spain to make a mistake (a little lucky gift). Pique's handball in the box provided a golden opportunity that Russia took advantage of for the tying goal (lucky to make the PK with all that pressure). With the game reset to a blank slate, Russia spent the remainder of time puzzling an uninventive Spanish side. As it always does, all things become even when a game heads to penalty kicks and this was no exception. Russia triumphed 4-3 despite facing one of the top three keepers in the world, while their own keeper luckily made two great saves, there's that L word again again!
So what could possibly add anything extra to the insane storyline of the host nation at this point? Look no further than a repeat performance. Russia's going to roll out the human wall one more time and hope that they can outlast Croatia's barrage. If they do, they'll be playing...sorry I can't help it...Russian roulette yet again with their World Cup chances.
Quarterfinals Picks: (Picks in Bold)
Uruguay +.5 France - Under 2
Brazil -.5 Belgium - Over 2.5
England -.5 Sweden - Under 2
Croatia -.5 Russia - Over 2
Current record: 6-8-2 (4-4 match; 2-4-2 O/U)
Keylime's Ledger picks:
Parlay the O/U picks above for +1305 odds - $5 to win $65.25
France to win for Even odds - $20 to win $20
Croatia to win for +120 - $25 to win $30