World Cup Semifinal Showdowns
Thirty two have shrunk down to four. Belgium, France, England and Croatia are all two wins away from hoisting the World Cup trophy and only one win away from playing for it in the final. So how does each team get to the final game?
France v. Belgium - Tuesday, July 10th @ 2pm
For France to make it to the finals for the first time since 2002 they need to slow down a Belgian team who has tallied the most goals this tournament. France has a skilled defensive unit and Hugo Lloris is among the top ten goal keepers in the world but they are far from impenetrable as it has been shown throughout their matches. That is why it is so important that they have been able to create and finish so many chances in their past two matches totaling six goals. France has continued to take the aggressive approach in their games playing on the front foot and taking early leads frequently. France faced a difficult group and won it. They easily outplayed and outscored an underachieving Argentine team despite the deceptive score line. They then got a bit of luck in going against a depleted Uruguay without Cavani and handled their very stingy defense and turned in a clean sheet. If France can control the ball it could throw the Belgians off their game and provide more opportunities for scoring.
The Belgians have proven to be the better defense in their five matches thus far with the exception of a ten minute snooze during the start of the second half against Japan. They have allowed five goals over five matches and two of those came when games were already in hand. Belgium is as dangerous, if not more than France on the front foot. They better hope the unlucky nature of their first half against Japan does not repeat itself. They hit posts, missed rare wide open lanes on set pieces or passes across the face of goal, they just were not in rhythm and you could see it. Belgium is not going to be intimidated by anyone. They just ousted the Brazilian favorites, have led most games and have come back from trailing 0-2 so they have belief in themselves, regardless of their situation.
As stupidly simplistic as it sounds the team with the better creativity in the final third will win this game even if they don't necessarily rack up the most chances. I see a Belgian side that will not be denied, winning 3-2 in overtime.
Croatia v. England - Wednesday, July 11th @ 2pm
A match of midfields for certain. Croatia's coach Zlatko Dalic made an interesting, no that's not the word, stylistic, no, agressive, no, STUPID that's it; he made a stupid choice to come out in 4-2-4 formation against Russia. It was a blatant message to the host nation (we don't think you can beat us, even if we don't play our best game) and while they were correct in the end Russia almost made them pay for eliminating the strongest part of their team (the midfield) from the equation. Croatia tried to attack Russia probably hoping that a couple early goals would allow them to put the game away and rest up for their semifinal match. They did not count on falling behind and having to chase the game the rest of the match and when they finally did pull in front they had experienced so many injuries and wasted so many subs re-configuring their formation that they had to leave their limping keeper in until the end. That worked out for them as they were able to triumph in PKs thanks in part to Subasic's efforts in overtime and the penalty shootout. Hopefully, Dalic has learned his lesson and doesn't get too cutesy with this lineup or formation. Assuming that all the seemingly injured Croatian players from last match are back in form and ready at kickoff they will be able to matchup with this loaded English roster. This match is not when you want less experienced legs trying to keep pace with Raheem Sterling or outmaneuver Harry Kane or you will pay for it. Croatia will need their full midfield firing on all cylinders to keep England under control and have a shot at the win.
England should feel some relief due to having already surpassed the deepest run of any English team since the title winning team of 1966; I doubt they actually do feel any though. This team seems focused on a higher achievement and if I was filling out a bracket today I'd have them facing Belgium in a final that we all soon would not forget, and we may just get to see it. For England to make it past Croatia they need Pickford to continue to exceed expectations and make incredible saves like he did versus Columbia and Sweden. I expect 70-80% of this match to occur between the boxes meaning pressure will be on both teams midfielders primarily. England has the advantage in the attacking end but Croatia proved they are up to the task of shutting down a key striker when they shackled Messi for a full match in group play. That means if Southgate sticks with the faith he has shown in Sterling, the striker best start delivering with finishes to his deep runs past back lines as its likely Kane will be shadowed very closely leaving Sterling on an island.
An advantage to England on roster talent, even matchup in the midfield, slight advantage to Croatia's defense but if Subasic is ailing and below 100% that could tip back in England's favor makes this a very intriguing matchup. I'll likely be cheering for Croatia to guarantee a new champion if they face Belgium but I see England winning a close and hard fought game where Croatia just cannot keep pace with England's strikers. England wins 3-1.
Semifinal Picks: (Picks in Bold)
France pk Belgium - Over 2.5
England -.5 Croatia - Over 2
Current record: 12-8-4 (8-4 match; 4-4-4 O/U)