The Kings in the North...& South (NFC Edition)
The final installment of a four part NFL season preview where I break down the finishing record for each team and who will win each division; revealing surprises along the way. I'll cover any standards that will hold true and include each edition with my boldest predictions for the respective divisions. NFC North and South fans, here's a quick bold prediction for you, these two divisions will make up the lion's share of playoff contenders. Outside of the Eagles and Rams, the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Packers, Vikings and Lions will be fighting for four spots.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Detroit Lions (7-9)
Chicago Bears (5-11)
Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
The Vikings made a moderate upgrade at quarterback by investing an aggressive amount of money to win the Cousins summer signing spree. However, it may be the final little push they need to reach the Lombardi trophy. What's most concerning is that the biggest reason they did not reach the Super Bowl last year was the Eagles feasting on an ill equipped offensive line and forcing the Vikings to use an average at best run attack and they could not do it. While Dalvin Cook's return will upgrade the run game talent, the offensive line does not look a whole lot different, nor better. Their matchups with the Packers will decide the division winner. Pair those with matchups against the Rams, Eagles and Saints and their playoff picture will become clearer. Short of a Super Bowl appearance, this team will be seen as underachieving so that's a healthy amount of pressure to start the year. I do think they are a better team top to bottom than Green Bay and thus will win the division because of it; you know the ol' sum being greater than its parts situation. My boldest prediction is a dichotomy but bold on both accords: Either Minnesota will indeed win a super bowl this year OR they miss the playoffs entirely. I will be rooting for the former. Go Vikings!
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
If Green Bay is going to win their division it will be the result of everyone riding Rodgers' coattails. The versatile and skilled QB has shown before that nothing quite motivates him like anger and a chip on his shoulder. These may be the way of the dark side but you can't argue with results. If coming back from what some considered a cheap shot (which it wasn't) will fuel his fire and have him playing in FUll rage mode all season, a la Brady following deflate gate, then I bet Packer fans are fine with that. Their earliest tests will be hosting Minnesota and San Francisco but they will be rather busy on bye week and not just buying airline tickets. Following their week seven bye they play six of their remaining ten games on the road including straight out of the gate traveling to Los Angeles to face the Rams before flying cross country to Foxboro to hopefully beat the Patriots the next week. Finishing that stretch 1-1 would probably feel amazing. A quick match back home against the Dolphins could be a trap game especially since it's followed by trips to Minnesota and Seattle concurrently. This five game stretch may truly decide the Packers entire season. Going 1-4 or even 2-3 seems like a wildcard would be the best they could hope for but a 4-1 or 5-0 stretch could easily see them holding the first seed in the NFC playoff race as the last month of the season begins.
Detroit Lions (7-9)
Lets take an inventory of the harvest from the Bill Belichick coaching tree:
Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels and Bill O'Brien have not rendered a single fruit worth picking. No signature win or even a solid season to speak of among this sorry lot. The latest unripe apple to be plucked from this withered and ice cold trunk is Matt Patricia, the defensive coordinator who stood powerless and stoic behind his beard while his best corner was publicly grounded to the sideline like a child by the petulant but primary Patriot coach. Let's not kid ourselves here, Bill Belichick has always and will always be the one who's truly in charge of the defense. He's generously allowed Brady to take about 40% ownership over the offense and Josh McDaniels gets to pretend he supervises that 40%. Bill controls EVERYTHING! That's why none of his coaches do well anywhere they go, because they have not been trained, taught or shown because he is just doing everything while they slightly observe or catch fleeting glimpses after enough time simply being present. I am not blaming Belichick for their failures. It’s not his job to teach his assistant coaches how to go on to be as or more successful than himself but most people in coaching and any teaching profession would typically value the imparting of knowledge to others, both players and peers. Bill Belichick doesn't strike me as that kind of guy. If you asked him if he believed in the philosophy of “Teach a man to fish and you'll feed him for a lifetime,” he'd probably say "Why would I teach him if that means less fish for me? That’s pretty stupid."
Since he too hasn’t been taught to fish, I don't expect the Matt Patricia era in Detroit to fare any differently than all the others have at their various teams. 7-9 is their ceiling this year thanks to a tough division, that's only getting better, the lack of a consistent playmaker in the backfield, and a secondary with
bigger holes than these jeans.
Matt Stafford is still here slinging balls to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay who are all the same player just at different phases of that player's career. The Lions are always good for a couple quality bone head moves that lose them a game and they usually save them for prime time or game of the week slots, so I can't wait to see how they gift Sam Darnold his first NFL win on Monday Night Football.
Chicago Bears (5-11)
I am not even going to pretend I've spent any real time watching or reading up on the Bears this off season. Based on what I do know about the talent on their roster, I think Trubisky will take a couple small steps forward from last season but I doubt they have the weapons for him to really start coming into his own. I like where the defense is headed considering their recent acquisition of Khalil Mack and the focus on not being terrible against both the pass and run this year. Tarik Cohen can be a true spark plug for this offense, think Darren Sproles in New Orleans days, if they can manage to use him correctly and balance the rush attack with Jordan Howard. Also, a fantasy sleeper that I am expecting to blow the doors off with some big games later this year is rookie wide out Anthony Miller. Their schedule is tough and outside of beating the Lions maybe once I don't see any success in the division. The best part of the year will likely be if they get to their week five bye at 2-2 after starting 0-2. Oh well Chicago, at least you'll have the Cubs to watch until at least October and maybe into early November.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Carolina Panthers (10-6)
Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Drew Brees may be two or three years from throwing in the towel but I think Sean Payton has done a great job ensuring that the group surrounding him is going to give them every opportunity to compete for a Super Bowl each of those years. The Saints were a miracle catch and run, resulting from a miscalculation by a safety, away from playing the Eagles for a shot at the Super Bowl and based on what Nick Foles did to the Patriots defense I'd like to think the Saints would have won the Lombardi trophy that night as well. The defense is young but gifted and maturing with each week that passes which lines up well with their schedule back loaded with tough games. Outside of Atlanta they don't play a team with a winning record from last season until week eight! However, seven of their last eleven games are against playoff teams from last season.
Carolina Panthers (10-6)
The Panthers have been a prime candidate by many analysts to regress this year but everything I've seen from the preseason suggests the complete opposite. They should be New Orleans’ toughest competition, once again, for the division crown. Their offense seems to have figured out the best ways to weaponize McCaffrey without making him the sole centerpiece of their attack. Devin Funchess is improving and finally finding chemistry with Cam. Torrey Smith is a question mark but if he can fill the deep threat void, present since Tedd Ginn Jr. joined the Saints, it will elevate Carolina's offensive potential. A healthy Greg Olsen will continue to supply a safety net option to Cam in clutch moments. Much like a Jason Witten or Antonio Gates, he's almost as dependable as the sun rising in the east.
On the other side of the ball, a healthy Luke Kuechly will still serve as anchor to a hard nose, punishingly physical and measurably aggressive defense. They have shown a propensity to get burned by the big play but if they can shore up their corners with help over the top or the pass rush can get home a little quicker they will really make an offense work hard for all they get. The biggest question mark for the Panthers week to week will continue to be consistent play; well, that and the ridiculousness of Cam's post game haberdashery choices.
Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
The Falcons are a team I always tend to root for in games. It may in part be due to growing up with Deion Sanders and the dirty bird but they just always seemed fun and clearly as a Bills fan I'm attracted to a certain level of choke artistry only few teams can offer. Everyone gave them a Super Bowl hangover pass for a good chunk of the season last year and some key injuries here and there made it seems like they were not as bad as they were playing. The final step in pulling the wool over most everyone's eyes last season was when they marched into the Coliseum and put a beat down on the young Rams. It was the football effect of an aging father, knowing his prime time is drawing to an end, putting his high school son in his place on the family driveway hoop one last time before the son beats his ass for the rest of their lives. My boldest prediction for the NFC South is that the Falcons are still and will likely be, forever more under Dan Quinn and Matt Ryan's tenure, suffering from a Super Bowl 51 hangover. They certainly have all the weapons on offense and a strong enough defense to look and present like a Super Bowl caliber team but they are still missing that X factor and in this situation the X is likely some dirty bird swagger and confidence. You see, that swagger was stolen, along with a 25 point lead almost two years ago!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
Tampa Bay is the front running competition for my Bills for the number one draft pick in 2019. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick will do just enough in his first three starts to be the starter again by week 7 against Cleveland after Jameis loses to Chicago and Atlanta sandwiched around an early bye week. Dirk Koetter should be gone by week eleven or so; it actually works in his favor that their bye is so early because if they had a week 7-9 bye that would probably be his deadline. Instead, he'll likely keep getting paychecks until the season is truly, mathematically, lost. There are bright spots for the Bucs, they have two of the top young TEs in OJ Howard and Cameron Brate; Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones have shown real promise and seem capable of being a potent run duo, that is becoming so common nowadays; Mike Evans is still young especially for a wide receiver and is under contract for a while. Plus if you do end up in one of the top draft spots there'll likely be a QB option so you can finally move on from the immature, Uber groping, crab leg stealing, chauvinist, Shameis Winston.
Playoff Predictions
Just so I can say “I told so” if this happens:
AFC
3) Pittsburgh vs. 6) Jacksonville
4) LA Chargers vs. 5) Baltimore
1) New England vs. 6) Jacksonville
2) Houston vs. 5) Baltimore
2) Houston vs. 6) Jacksonville
NFC
3) Philadelphia vs. 6) Carolina
4) New Orleans vs. 5) Green Bay
1) Minnesota vs. 3) Philadelphia
2) LA Rams vs. 4) New Orleans
1) Minnesota vs. 4) New Orleans
Super Bowl
Houston vs. New Orleans
Houston wins 34-30 and Deshaun Watson is a Super Bowl MVP only two years into his NFL career.
Enjoy tonight's kick off to the season and check back on Saturday for this week's picks and Keylime's NFL season ledger.