The King in the North...& South (AFC Edition)

The first of a four part NFL season preview where I break down the finishing record for each team and who will win each division; revealing surprises along the way. I'll cover any standards that will hold true and include each edition with my boldest predictions for the respective divisions. First up, much like a middle school Battle of the Bands, it's the less crowded talent pool known as the AFC North followed by the surprisingly resilient South.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

Cleveland Browns (5-10-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Is it just me or does Joe Flacco look like a fully grown up Gendry with a different hair style? Baltimore is the beneficiary of a schedule bookended with ease while the meaty middle holds the difficult stretch. Weeks 7-9 against New Orleans, Carolina and Pittsburgh along with a week 13 matchup against Atlanta will likely show the true ceiling for their season. If they can take advantage of Pittsburgh's porous defense and at least split the series with them they should be able to win the division crown. Of course, all this most certainly hinges on Flacco not being, well, an illegitimate bastard QB, kinda like Gendry.

gendry

flacco

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

Pittsburgh has gotten into a habit of slow starts in the past few seasons. Here's their record through the first seven weeks in the past three years 2017: 5-2; 2016: 4-3; 2015: 4-3). They cannot afford to get off to that kind of start this year as the back half of their schedule possesses plenty of problems. If the Steelers enter their week seven bye with more than 2 losses they will have a hard time winning their division let alone making the playoffs. They should get a win coming out of their bye week against Cleveland as well. Then five of their next seven games are @Balt, vs. Car, @Jax, vs. LAC & vs. NE and I see at least three losses in there including to Jacksonville who has their number and is just a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. While the Steelers are occupied with matters like Antonio Brown's hamstring or when Le'Veon Bell will grace them with his presence they're not paying attention to what matters, like how to shore up their defense or getting an indifferent yet dynamic offensive unit to gel and be as potent as their potential. A slow start for Pittsburgh could mean a fast exit from postseason contention or at least serious consideration for a championship and I bet that slow start kicks off with a mind-melting upset by the...

Cleveland Browns (5-10-1)

Bold prediction time!

The Browns will not finish in last place in the AFC North.

You read that right! The Browns have a true opportunity to leap from the depths of dumpster fire suckfest all the way to below average this season! Here are the main reasons why:

1) Roster talent - Landry, Hyde, Njoku, Taylor, Garrett, Ward, Ogbah and Peppers. Make no mistake these guys are all ballers and bring their specific talents to their side of the ball at their respective position. Can they all work as a cohesive unit with the rest of the D or offense? Guess we’ll find out.

2) Turnover trend change - You know what Tyrod Taylor does really well? He avoids turnovers. He is athletic enough to avoid the downright law of averages turnover but he also avoids the stupid ones, which are the most frustrating kind. You know what he doesn’t do? Take enough accurate risks downfield. Sadly these two traits are mutually exclusive when it comes to T-Mobile. I always found this odd when watching him closely in Buffalo because he threw some epic deep balls to Sammy Watkins, Marquise Goodwin, and a bunch of no name receivers we floated through the past two seasons. However, having a quarterback who does not give away the ball will help the Browns mightily as a team who has ranked in the top five in giveaways in the league since 2015, including this past season at number one; while the Tyrod-led Bills were 26th. So many games come down to whether one team is going to make a mistake and if the other can take advantage of that mistake. Sure, not giving the ball away may not win games but it sure as hell won’t lose them for you. This will be a shift for the Browns who have had a propensity for turnovers that fostered a culture of actively losing games since, well, forever really, including countless examples of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This season though, with Tyrod at the helm, he’ll set the example of taking care of the football and if others follow suit they will be instantly better than the past three years.

3) DEFENSE - is Gregg Williams kind of a scumbag from his New Orleans bounty-gate days? Yup! Is he still a really skilled coordinator who has been able to cobble together a pass rush with way less talent up front than Cleveland has? You bet! That alone should make any team lining up across from Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah very nervous. If Cleveland's young corners can hold up in man coverage the pass rush will get home quickly and wreak havoc. The biggest question marks seem to be in the run game and the inexperience leading to stupid penalties. Don't get me wrong those are big issues if they continue, but if they correct them in preseason or even early on, look out.

4) Surprise factor - no one expects them to be good because they’re the BROWNS! You really don’t think teams treat that week of prep for them like a partial bye? You think guys don’t have an extra day off those weeks or coaches don’t spend just a few less hours on film and few more with the family the week they prep for the Browns? C’mon we all know better. Now looking at their schedule, it’s brutal but I see six winnable games (2 Cincy games, Jets and Baltimore home games, @TB & @Denver), but my juiciest guess is that they shock the Sleepy Steelers week one in Cleveland. That’s right they’re gonna beat the Steelers to open the season to match their win total from the past two years. The best part? Even if that happens everyone will chalk it up to a fluke; the standard week one survivor pool monkey wrench that no one saw coming or could’ve predicted. Which is why they’ll be able to challenge teams unexpectedly and likely pull a few more upsets this season.

Also and I can't overstate this enough...your QB is no longer this guy:

I expect to see a 5 possibly even 6 win Browns squad this year and NO, that is not because I watched some Hard Knocks this summer.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

The Bengals are trending down the path often tread by their Ohio neighbors. Too many holes on an old roster will compound their problems and a tired and inattentive coaching regime will continue wandering to pointlessness. They have seven winnable games @ Indy, vs. Miami, @ KC, vs. TB, vs. Den and two matchups against Cleveland. I doubt they win more than five games all season and I think it'll be fun if they play a pointless game to a tie with the Browns. Hopefully, this year spirals out of control so fast that Marvin Lewis is finally asked to leave and the owner finally blow ups the S.S. Sub-par Cincinnati.

AFC South

Houston Texans (11-5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

Tennessee Titans (7-9)

Indianapolis Colts (5-11)

Houston Texans (11-5)

Houston wins the AFC South but will have a lot to prove in the playoffs because they really only have six difficult games and I see them losing five of them. They open up against the Patriots in New England and, as the past several years have shown, if you're going to trip up Bill and Brady, especially at home, it's gonna happen in September. I think Houston gets that win as Deshaun Watson showcases once again why he is the newest superstar QB in the league in his return from his torn ACL. They'll split with Jacksonville and sweep both the Colts and Titans to carry the division crown. As the soon-to-be preeminent All Star of the league, Deshaun Watson desperately needs an awesome nickname. My top nomination is "De Magician" because he mysteriously disappears from defenders clutches like this:

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

The Jaguars will struggle with a very, very difficult schedule this year. They face New England, KC, Dallas and Philadelphia all before their week nine bye along with one home matchup each with Tennessee and Houston. A tough road for sure but that's what happens when you win the division, you face the other division winners. It doesn't get much easier following the break with a cold trip to Buffalo at the end of November where the Bills will want playoff revenge, following an additional helping of revenge from the Steelers as well. Four of their last five games are very winnable and against inferior opponents but the Texans might have the division won before their final week meeting, in which case the Jags may get an easy tenth win to grab a late wildcard.

Tennessee Titans (7-9)

Tennessee will take a step or two back this year and, like the Jags, their schedule provides no favors. If they fail to win at Miami in week one they could very likely enter their week eight bye at 1-7 or 2-6 resulting from vs. Hou, @ Jax, vs. Phi, @ Buff, vs. Balt, @ LAC. Not only is that a rough run of tough teams but their schedule alternates home and away games until week 11, when they're on the road for back to back games. That's NUTS! The Titans don't play back to back home games until DECEMBER! Even their bye week is sandwiched between two road games. Hey, first year, inexperienced head coach Mike Vrabel, good luck with that short straw. Tennesee will be lucky to get the seven wins I listed above but the talent on their roster is there and they should be able to beat the Jets, Giants, Colts and Dolphins while the Bills, Cowboys and Washington matchups are all likely coin flips.

Indianapolis Colts (5-11)

Indy should have Andrew Luck under center week one, but what O-line work during his absence makes anyone feel confident that he'll last a whole season back there? Granted, drafting Quenton Nelson ledsto an immediate upgrade at left guard but the right side is still shaky. AND, if blind side left tackle Anthony Costanzo's recent injury costs him any meaningful regular season time Luck might be out again before Costanzo comes back. Indy certainly doesn't face the severity of the Titan's schedule troubles but they do only play three home games in the first nine weeks. Those home games are against Cincy, Houston and Buffalo; three games they could easily lose. If Luck stays healthy his presence alone paired with T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron should be good for four or five wins.

My second bold prediction is that the AFC representative in Super Bowl 53 will be from the AFC South!