East meets West (NFC Edition)
The second of a four part NFL season preview where I break down the finishing record for each team and who will win each division; revealing surprises along the way. I'll cover any standards that will hold true and include each edition with my boldest predictions for the respective divisions. Much like an Asian-Mexican fusion restaurant we're serving up divisions with some the spiciest flavor profiles of the NFC that also each contain at least one stale fortune cookie. We'll start out with something else that's stale, the thought that the Philadelphia Eagles have a QB controversy. They don't!
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
New York Giants (8-8)
Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Washington (6-10)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
The defending Super Bowl champs will spend the first month of the season in a slight haze of sentimentality and easy competition. After raising their first Super Bowl banner at the Linc, to open the season, everything will be flying high except the Falcons. Matt Ryan will be running for his life and Calvin Ridley's rookie form will be on full display under the bright lights for his first pro start in prime time. The Eagles then visit Tampa Bay, host Indy and travel to Tennessee. No, this is not their pre-season schedule, I assure you. Even if they have a hangover game to open against Atlanta they should not pull the rip cord just yet with those three fluffy pillows to land on. If the Eagles open the season worse than 3-1 they should be very worried; because three of their next four are really difficult and the fourth, a matchup at the Giants, is no cakewalk either. They'll enter their week eight bye 6-2 and finish up 10-6 through a challenging but manageable schedule. The toughest overall part of it is they alternate home and road games until November 25th! The division is easily theirs to lose. While the Giants took two steps forward it looks like Dallas and Washington both took a step back so it'll all just about even out as most of those teams are .500 finishers at best.
New York Giants (8-8)
When Dave Gettlemen wants to buy a car do you think he goes to the BMW dealer and asks "What's the most someone's ever paid you for this model car?" and then whatever the salesman tells him he just adds 20K to it for the hell of it? If not, I wonder why he did that when contract negotiating with Odell Beckham Jr.? What on earth makes anyone think OBJ is worth 2 million more a year than Antonio Brown? But Ian, Odell was the quickest WR to 200 catches and 3,000 yards in NFL history! He only needed 30 games to reach those marks! That's correct but have you seen who else Eli had as options during those years? It's not as though there was another threat on the roster once Victor Cruz's career ended with injuries which occurred shortly after OBJ arrived. His counterparts have been Reuben Randal, Dwayne Harris, Corey Washington (WHO?), Preston Parker (fun fact that was Stan Lee's first draft name of Spider-man's alter ego), Jerrel Jernigan, and most recently rookie Sterling Shepard and another rando named Geremy Davis. In short, my argument is who else was Eli supposed to throw the ball to? I'd bet Shane Vereen has the second most catches behind Beckham over the same ratio timespan and he was coming out of the backfield. OBJ may be a star in the making but he's getting paid like he's the sun around which all planets of life have formed. Also who's gonna throw him the ball for the final two or three years of that contract? Davis Webb? The statement "OBJ is worth 2 million more than Antonio Brown" is about as true as that Spider-man fun fact I made up. Sure they have wicked weaponry with OBJ and Saquon now but the defense is not scaring anyone. Their offensive line was more porous than a sponge last year and hasn't changed at all because swapping your RT and LT is not an improvement, its just moving your problems around. Have fun making highlight reels instead of the playoffs Giants' fans.
Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
The most recent news out of Dallas is that Jerry Jones, the answer to what would it look like if a soggy Frosted Flake took human form, wants an 18 game regular season with only 2 preseason games. Someone needs to tell Jerry that finishing 9-9 is really no better than 8-8 even though the numbers are higher. Was it shocking to hear that the greediest, most self-serving, corrupt NFL owner wants to generate two more games worth of regular season revenue? Well drop my jaw and widen my eyes cuz I was surprised for sure, NOT! Meanwhile, back on the field and in the locker room where decisions matter, the Cowboys jettisoned their aging WR Dez Bryant after every beat writer spent last season telling Jason Garrett he couldn't get separation from a distant relative if they were covering him. Dez was out for revenge and had two suitors, but he spurned Baltimore since they don't play Dallas and Cleveland passed because they are betting all but their house that Josh Gordon can play more than two games without getting high. Dez strikes me as the type of guy who would go out and have 12 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns if he could play just one game against Dallas but then would not have more than three catches in any other game all season.
They signed Allen Hurns who hasn't completed a healthy season since 2014 and still has not hit 200 career catches in 52 games so we'll see how that goes. Ezekiel Elliot will be back and perhaps for a full season unless Jerry Jones' meddling has anything to say about it. The defense is basically a photocopy of last year which was not good. Dak's backup is second year QB Cooper Rush and based on his preseason showing he's likely the worst backup quarterback in the league. They have eight winnable games, maybe nine if the Giants have thrown in the towel by week 17 but this is Dallas so they won't win all those anyway.
Time for a sidebar: Dez's circumstance gave me the idea for the Vendetta tag (patent pending). Much like a Franchise tag this would only last one season but if, after being released or cut, a player chooses to "Vendetta tag" himself, he becomes eligible to play for any opponent their former team plays if the opponent chooses to use them. Each team would only get to do this once a season so that would eliminate a division rival getting a double dip. So, for example, under VT status Dez could be a Carolina Panther week one, then a Giant, then a Seahawk, then a Lion and a Texan and so on for each team that chooses to play him against the Cowboys. You want a reason for owners and GMs to value their players and not treat them like human cattle? Employ this rule and give the players an opportunity for payback. A VT player would be paid the average salary per game for their position on the team using them. A Vendetta Tag 2019 campaign could even share the next Trump campaign's honesty motto: it's not likely, unless the Russians can make it happen!
Washington (6-10)
Arizona, Indianapolis, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Dallas and Tennessee, these are the six teams Washington will beat this season. Alex Smith lost an arsenal of speed and mostly youth at Kansas City skill positions and gained an old, injury prone TE, an injury prone and unproven backfield and an inexperienced wide receiving core; he probably feels great about the situation. Alex is likely at the point of his career where he knows if he was going to win anything meaningful he'd have done it. Now, its all about padding that bank account while he enjoys his last few seasons and boosts his career stats as well.
Sidenote: Huge miss on the NFL's part to ensure we got a Gruden v. Gruden Monday Night grudge match during the lone season the brothers are both head coaches. Sure John has like a ten year four bajillion dollar guaranteed contract but another year finishing well short of the playoffs should tie a bow on the Jay and Anything but Silent Snyder's relationship. Here's a bold prediction from the NFC East, Jay Gruden is the first coach fired this season.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Arizona Cardinals (6-10)
Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
The Rams really let inexperience get the better of them in the playoffs last year. The Falcons rolled in and knocked them on their butt from the first kick. Here's another bold prediction for you, the Rams will get over their playoff hiccup and make it all the way to the NFC championship game this year. Rather bold considering this team has not spent any first team reps on the field during preseason games. Home matchups against Minnesota, Green Bay and Philadelphia along with a road game in New Orleans will really show if they are ready to be the class of the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
The trendy pick from basically everyone to suddenly become a playoff team in an already crowded NFC. Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan may pull the 49ers from the doldrums since Jim Harbaugh left town, but they're not putting together a 2016 Falcons season nor a QB MVP caliber season either. Why not? Because San Fran has nowhere near the offensive artillery nor defensive potency that team had. A small six game sample showed Jimmy G was a quick study of Shanahan's system but it also gave teams an entire off season to study and respond to their schemes. Their arsenal of offensive weaponry is equivalent to a small cup of coffee during a food fight; sure they might burn one person on a Marquise Goodwin deep ball but then what? Dink and dunk to George Kittle-Corn and Pierre "Garcon, do you have any Grey-Poupon" while Matt Breida and the ghost of Alfred Morris run repeatedly into a pile of bodies for two yards per carry? Good luck making the Super Bowl and finding a way to blow a 25 point lead to Tom Brady with that squad Kyle! They also have tough away games out of division too, including trips to Minnesota, Green Bay and Kansas City with the one redemption being they all come before winter weather months. Still 8-8 should feel like making the playoffs for this team. I think one more year to mature and I'll buy what everyone else is already sipping as a fine wine.
Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Downward trending for certain, so it's just about the time that Pete Carroll tends to jump ship, if you check over his career pattern. However, Russell "Second Savior" Wilson is still at the helm beside ol' Petey so he may stick around to grab any meager hope crumbs that fall from this season or the next. The Legion of Boom finally went bust last year and its pieces have scattered to the winds. Seattle has been unable to find a constant backfield ball carrier since Marshawn Lynch's pseudo-retirement, let alone one with any skill or talent to frighten defenses. That has caused real issues for Russell who has had to engineer broken play touchdowns just to stay competitive in some contests last year. They'll eke out some gutsy wins thanks to his miracle-working athleticism that buys him time behind the line as it collapses. They also have a soft road schedule including their first two games against Denver and Chicago. Those, paired with a trip to Detroit and Oakland, should provide an opportunity to at least get 3 road wins. So if they can manage to finish above .500 at home, which they have done every season since 2011, eight wins are clearly feasible.
Arizona Cardinals (6-10)
New head coach, new quarterbacks, new defensive scheme and classic clutch kick-ass wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Few things stay so perennially reliable as Fitzgerald's availability and dependability especially in key moments of any game. David Johnson is healthy again and DJ Quick Feet knows how to ignite an offense from behind the line. However, if Sam Bradford's career-long health woes continue he'll be the main weapon Arizona must rely on and no NFL team fares well when it's made one-dimensional. Josh Rosen may hold promise and be the future but I highly doubt he will have the protection around him to successfully use his weapons. Outside of their tough division schedule, where two wins is likely the maximum, they have four toss up games (Washington, Chicago, Denver and Detroit). Accounting for a random win over a team who falls asleep while facing them, I'd say six wins is maybe generous but I like their offensive weapons for at least a split in series with Seattle and San Fran and maybe they pull the sweep of one of them too.
In summary, our division winners here will be the Rams and Eagles with no other teams making the playoffs. Bold predictions are Rams in the title game and Jay Gruden as first coach canned. San Fran is overhyped. Alex Smith probably hates his new team setup. Jerry Jones is and always will be a greedy, self-serving slime ball. Two more editions to follow so don't miss out.