East meets West (AFC Edition)
The third of a four part NFL season preview where I break down the finishing record for each team and who will win each division; revealing surprises along the way. I'll cover any standards that will hold true and include each edition with my boldest predictions for the respective divisions. Much like current American political parties these two divisions represent polar opposites and while one really, really, really sucks it is also somehow on top, of the conference. In one the division title is all but decided while the other may be completely up for grabs.
AFC East
New England Patriots (12-4)
Miami Dolphins (6-10)
New York Jets (5-11)
Buffalo Bills (3-13)
New England Patriots (12-4)
Bill is still here, Brady despite being 1,000 in football years is back again, as is Josh McDaniels who appears resigned to wait Bill out to hopefully succeed him. That may be every non-New England fans only hope that they don't dominate the division for another twenty years, because you know McDaniels is driving that bus off a cliff the moment he's handed the keys. New England will pull its typical early season prototyping approach to September and when they open the gate 0-2 everyone will believe the regime is over before they win seven of the next eight prior to a late season bye week. They'll go on to finish 12-4 and still hold the first seed in the AFC playoffs. I already detailed in a previous post how Houston will surprise the Patriots week one but one factor I didn't include is that Houston is not afraid of the Patriots. True, they don't have a winning record of success against them but every time they venture into Foxboro, including a playoff game a few years back, they don't quit. Instead, they play with a determined resolve despite the overwhelming odds always against them. This season they get the monkey off their back both in regular season and post-season play. Deshaun Watson almost won this game last year and he'll finish it this time around. Then the Patriots have to travel to Jacksonville where the Jaguars are starving for revenge no matter how meaningless the game will be in long run. Finally, just as all the talking heads are about to drop the first shovel full of dirt on the 2018 Pats, someone, somewhere will remember they play in the AFC East meaning they're a lock for the playoffs every year and somehow this will be treated like breaking news, despite it's uniformity to the last 14 seasons. I only see Green Bay and Minnesota pulling out wins against the Patriots late in the season since most of their other games are a joke, other than maybe a Pittsburgh win, as an early Christmas present.
Miami Dolphins (6-10)
I think Miami is truly a wildcard. They could go 10-6, 6-10 or anywhere in between really. They have:
-an experienced quarterback who should be motivated to prove he doesn't suck, FINALLY!
-an underrated running back who will be atop most fantasy boards next year, especially if the O-line can open any holes at all.
-half of a scary D-line with Jordan Phillips and Cameron Wake along with Kiko Alonso and Raekwon McMillian in the Linebacker core.
They don't have:
-a top wide receiver who scares any defense.
-a backup quarterback (the Brockweiler waits in the wings).
-experience nor depth (although plenty of potential) at corner which is highly necessary to play defense well in the modern NFL.
They're reminiscent of the Titans team from last year with a less athletic quarterback. Interestingly enough, that's the team they face week one and if they beat them they may be capable of starting off 3-0 before losing to New England and likely four of their next seven. That puts them at 5-5 entering their bye week. If they do that and sweep the Bills and beat the Colts they could win eight games but that is their ceiling realistically. So, I'm hedging that they don't sweep both the Bills and Jets and they won't beat Tennessee either.
New York Jets (5-11)
The Jets still don't have a definitive long-term answer at quarterback but most fans are pumped about Sam Darnold's potential and the future being bright so they'll likely not be expecting an immediate upswing. Now that Darnold has been named the starter for week one will this be the typical USC QB cascade or will he buck the trend and inspire more than the greatest football GIF ever?
Even if he doesn't start strong out of the gate Jets fans will be patient with Darnold. Todd Bowles will receive no such patience. He's a favored candidate for first coach fired this season and only lasts another year with some surprising wins and/or a seven win or more season. I only see five wins for the Jets through a split with the Dolphins, a sweep of the Bills and victories over Indianapolis and Chicago. On the plus side they won't finish last in the division this year, that spot is reserved for my team.
Buffalo Bills (3-13)
While I am thrilled AJ McCarron is not our week one starter it still sucks that we gave him a ten million dollar contract including a four million dollar signing bonus. Unsurprisingly, we've done some other stupid things too, like trade a seventh round pick to Cleveland for wide receiver Corey Coleman, only to release him three weeks later but hey we just signed eight guys to the practice squad so there's that. We just handed the reigns to Nathan Peterman and if you need a reminder of who that is watch this:
Peterman will be the starter until he turns the ball over enough to force an ill prepared Josh Allen under center, unless an injury forces a move at QB sooner. Our offensive line that was so talented a year ago has not looked capable of holding up a pocket for three seconds let alone opening any holes in the run game so quarterback hits are probable. Peterman, Allen and McCarron's best form in the preseason came late in games when starting defensive players were not factors. Add a likely suspension, at some point, for Shady McCoy to the mix, for hiring a friend to rob his ex-girlfriend (I swear you can't make this crazy crap up. Crazy crap referring to the stupid things athletes and celebrities with too much money and time on their hands do.) and my Bills are going to make their offensive struggles last year look like the greatest show on turf. We may struggle to score anything against Baltimore week one which brings me to my bold prediction for the AFC East. The Bills will be held scoreless week one and probably shutout at least two more times this season; Minnesota, Jacksonville and Houston are the other front runners to pull it off.
Our defense is still talented and will keep us in games for longer stretches than we likely deserve. However, since its likely the defense will spend 60-80% of the game on the field they'll be exhausted and probably rack up injuries and thus the stats will not truly reflect that talent level. Our special teams units are strong which is good when you'll be punting a lot. Also we have a great kicker so watch out for plenty of LOOONNNGGG field goal attempts and our scoreboard being filled with multiples of 3. However, we are the Bills so we won't tank purposefully we'll do it with panache and win at least two games we shouldn't, most likely early in the year to give fans a false sense of hope before crashing and burning. I never thought Tyrod was going to win us a championship of any kind but he got a raw deal throughout his time in Western New York. So in a way Buffalo made him feel right at home, because everyone who lives in Western New York is getting a raw deal... in life. Seriously though, I hope Tyrod makes a difference in Cleveland while we replace the Browns atop the draft board this April, because I'm already certain Allen isn't the future. Every time some analyst talks about his arm strength I flash back to the praise and adulation given to JaMarcus Russell for being able to throw a ball sixty yards while sitting on the ground. When are you ever going to do that in a game, so why does it matter? THAT WAS SO STUPID! As is the fawning over Allen's arm strength because if he's not accurate it just means you won't need that talented young punter we signed since he'll just Hail Mary interceptions all game.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
Oakland Raiders (6-10)
Denver Broncos (6-10)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
The Chargers seem to be the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West. Even Vegas thinks so by assigning them the highest win total at 9.5 in the division. By the end of week four we should know if they are for real. Matchups against Kansas City, the other Los Angeles, and San Francisco will provide an early season barometer of their potential. They need to end their Browns impersonations of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and prove they are winners. Phillip Rivers is down to his last few rides before retiring and he only needs 5 more kids to field his own baseball club, which I have to imagine factors into his retirement plan. I can see it now: The Rivers Edge vs. the Dugout Duggars. They would travel around like the baseball version of the Globetrotters and Generals, amusing fans in the stands with goofy baseball antics. Gunner Rivers has the perfect name for a starting pitcher and he'd constantly be throwing a baseball that pops open as a beach ball comes out. At least once a game the Duggars would over throw each other when trying to pin a base runner and the ball would hit the "lazy river" running through the shallow outfield until the runner scores. The Duggars would never score a run and thus their lineup strategy could be called the Rhythm method, since it too never works. Clearly, the idea is still in it's infancy but there is plenty of potential there, just like the Chargers playoffs chances. See, it always comes back around!
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
Patrick Mahomes needs to mature quickly to utilize the weaponry around him. Travis Kelce is entering the final phase of his career but the other options (Hunt, Hill & Watkins) are well within their prime or early career upswing. The future is bright for Kansas City, especially if Andy’s new QB is able to tame his inaccuracy and deliver the clutch throws and wins that Alex Smith seemingly could not. Mahomes will have opportunities to prove he can win big games both early and often. He faces the Chargers, Steelers, Patriots and Rams all on the road before the week 12 bye. He also hosts San Francisco, Jacksonville and Baltimore before season’s end so as I said, early and often. Sure the Chiefs have a few easier games (Denver, Cleveland, Arizona, Cincy) but I don’t see the second year QB beating enough of the earlier mentioned teams nor winning enough division games for a playoff run. Frankly, Andy Reid may benefit from just flat out missing the playoffs instead of losing another opening round game.
Oakland Raiders (6-10)
Let’s play a game! Write down ten things you know you do very well. Maybe your list includes sinking a layup, blowing bubble gum bubbles, making a paper football or paper airplane, cooking a three course meal, schooling noobs in FIFA on X-BOX, etc. Now pretend you don’t do those things for at least ten years. How well would you perform any of them the first time after the hiatus? My paper airplane plane would look like this:
Point being, likely no things on our lists were as difficult as head coaching a NFL team and yet we’re supposed to believe that because Jon Gruden was born clutching a clipboard he’s gonna do what other hall of fame coaches couldn’t? Joe Gibbs took twelve years off and when he came back, Washington had the worst two records of his NFL coaching career and another two seasons concluded with losing in the playoffs to the Seattle Seahawks (Holmgren & Hasselbeck edition not Carroll & Sherman). Bill Parcells took four years off before putting up with Jerry Jones’ bullshit while dragging two hapless Cowboy teams, who couldn’t get out of their own way, to playoff losses in the opening round. Jon Gruden has been in a booth or RV film room for the past ten years. So if trends hold he’ll spend the next 4-6 years riding a roller coaster of losing record lows paired with the occasional highs of losing to Jacksonville or Houston in the wildcard round before retiring again. But not before squeezing the last bit of golden goose juice from the Davis’ family teat before they go bankrupt and have to sell the team to some smug Vegas Casino owner. Who, after an extreme fall from power and spending a brief stint hiding in the shadows from the press, needs a way to make a splash in his much maligned return to the free world purchases the Raiders to do just that. That's right, Trump buys the Vegas Raiders and finally gets his opportunity to be part of the whitest, most elite, Old Boys' Club in the world. Now that’s a BOLD prediction!
When it comes to this season though, Oakland has just given away a franchise defender in Khalil Mack for what amounts to a few lottery tickets at best. Hopefully, I’m not the only one who can recognize this as the “building toward a future that may never come” type move that it is. Remember, I’m a Bills fan. I’ve lived in that “future” since Jim Kelly retired. Something stinks about that deal too, I mean literally stinks! It's never a good sign when the franchise quarterback comes out and says something different than the coaches or is "off message." It's also not good when locker room comments start growing teeth in the media, it sows and grows discord and dissent - just ask Rex Ryan about the importance of locker room chemistry. Something is brewing there and once the right match is struck the combustion could easily launch Oakland's season into a, ahem, Black Hole.
Denver Broncos (6-10)
Case Keenum is a massive upgrade at quarterback from Trevor Siemian, who is ironically fulfilling Keenum's old role in Minnesota now. Keenum is an even bigger upgrade from the Brockweiler. If I were a NFL GM I'd rather put a JUGS machine behind my line as quarterback with the running back aiming it than allow Brock Osweiler on the roster. Last year, Case Keenum led Minnesota to an NFC championship game appearance without a great run game (after Dalvin Cook went down early) and without a great O-line but thankfully had a strong defense and three skilled receiving threats. It sounds an awful lot like what Denver's roster consists of - strong pass pressuring defense, three receiving threats (Sanders, Thomas & Jake Butt), a questionable O-line and a below average running back committee. I think there is a chance Case Keenum can lead the Broncos to a playoff spot and they may even win the division if Kansas City and Los Angeles choke badly. I also think there is a chance last year was a total aberration and his career stats support that more. Just look at his QBR, if nothing else!
The philosophical principle of Occam's razor states that the simplest explanation for an odd occurrence is usually best. In applying that principle what's more likely: Case Keenum became a franchise quarterback overnight in Minnesota who then let him walk out the door or the sum was greater than any of its parts and he peaked at the right time? We've seen this story a bunch of times in the past dozen years with quarterbacks the most recent I can recall are Sanchez, Cassel, Fitzpatrick, Mallet & Kolb. The current nominees to take up that mantle are Keenum, Cousins, Winston, and Garoppolo. The Broncos defense can probably win a couple division games for them and the Jets, Cardinals, Bengals and Browns all seem to be easy enough prey to make six wins achievable. Congrats on wasting another year of Von Miller's prime, Jon Elway.
Final two divisions (NFC North and South) will be delineated and decided in Thurday morning's post before the season kicks off, don't miss it.