YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 2 Picks
Every Friday I'll preview the approaching NFL weekend action and give you my picks for each game. I'll also roll out the Keylime Ledger for all football bets including some favorable college matchups throughout the season.
After week one, everyone knows exactly how the NFL season is going to play out - Pittsburgh is in trouble; the Chiefs are AFC crown competitors; Aaron Rodgers is unbeatable but Jimmy G isn't; the Bucs are finally contenders in the NFC South; Andrew Luck is like a kid in a candy store when it comes to getting to play football and most importantly we still don't know what constitutes a catch or incompletion. Filled with confidence from a super small sample size, week two wagers can often feel like walking through a minefield covered in bear traps (no pun intended) so we'll have to tread carefully.
Early Action
Nine games with a 1pm EST kickoff, I wish it was seven or even eight to provide more balance throughout the day. When will the NFL learn? HOME team in caps and all lines are from Bovada.lv.
Carolina +6 ATLANTA
It's shocking to see so many points between division rivals especially when the favored team was guilty of the most penalties in franchise history during their first game while facing a similarly smothering defense to Carolina's. Vegas must not have been impressed with the Panthers pathetically clinging to an eight point win for most of the second half, at home, against a hapless Dallas offense that had no real rhythm. That seems to be the only reason to justify a line that is at least two points too high, outside of this being a must win game for Atlanta, which I don't think it is. Not only do I like the points, I like the Panthers to sneak out of Atlanta with a tight victory. Carolina 21 Atlanta 20
LA Chargers -7.5 BUFFALO
Let's get this "game" out of the way. Fellow Bills fans get used to what you saw last Sunday because we've got a full season of that crap coming our way. On Monday, I got an alert on my phone that the Bills still had not named a starting QB and my reaction was "Does it matter?" No, no it does not. Until someone spots the Bills 17.5 or more I'm not trusting them and even then it will depend on the opponent. New England may lay 30 to us in week eight and I'll still take the Patriots. The over in this game is also prime for the taking and I'll get to that in the ledger later. LA 34 Buffalo 9
Minnesota (NL) GREEN BAY
No line on this one yet, due to uncertainty around Aaron Rodgers' availability. If Rodgers and Adams are able to play this should be the marquee matchup of the early slate. If not, enjoy watching the lesser DeShone of the league run for his life from the Vikings front seven or just switch over to the Pittsburgh game. It was never more clear than Sunday night that Green Bay's entire hopes, dreams and potential all rest upon Aaron Rodgers head, shoulders, knees and arm. Even veterans like Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb looked dejected and resigned to a loss following the carting of week one's MVP front runner to the locker room in the first half. Then those same veteran players looked and played like they were 10 years younger and faster in the second half when he jogged back onto the field. The Bears had plenty of hits and rushes on Rodgers thanks to the discount double check o-line he stands behind and Brad Childress will not hesitate to bring the heat. The key to this one is if Minnesota can get their run game Cookin' to open up throwing windows for their million dollar man under center. I think they will. Minnesota 30 Green Bay 24
Houston -2 TENNESSEE
Deshaun Watson did not play well in Foxboro. I would not want to be the team playing a redoubled effort driven Deshaun. Tennessee seems to be getting Mariota back in the lineup after an elbow boo-boo against the Dolphins but who knows if he's actually 100%. The loss of Delanie Walker essentially takes away the Titan's best offensive weapon and certainly Mariota's safety net. Here's the, to be kind, lackluster receiving options for the Titans with Walker out:
Rishard Matthews - last topped 100 receiving yards Nov. 16th of last year which was one of only five games with five or more catches for the season.
Taywan Taylor - second year WR who had 16 catches for 231 yards and one touchdown last year.
Corey Davis - second year WR who had 40 catches for 437 yards last year.
None of those guys strike fear into anyone. Mike Vrabel and his coordinating staff (Matt LaFleur) are not exactly known for scary offensive schemes either. Dion Lewis is likely the Texans main concern. Houston will win this game and Tennessee will take their second step toward the basement of the AFC South. Don't worry, Titans, the Colts will save you a seat on the 6-10 sofa. Tennessee 16 Houston 28
Sidebar: Deshaun Watson still needs an awesome nickname. Current front runners include:
-De Magician
-Deshaun Watch-son!
-Elementary
-Deshaun Da Bomb Watson
I don't really like any of these so please add suggestions in the comments section.
Cleveland +9 NEW ORLEANS
JUMP on this line before it comes down to Earth from the stratosphere in which its currently orbiting us. New Orleans just gave up 48 points to Tampa Bay in their home opener and while I do not think they will lose back to back home games I also don't see them being able to run the ball as effectively against the better defensive front of the Browns. I also don't expect the Saints defense to be gashed for nearly five hundred yards passing again this season but Tyrod Taylor will not make life easy for them. He is not going to turn the ball over and make stupid mistakes. Cleveland will not quit and they are truly starting to believe in their ability to compete each week; let them hang around and they'll eventually make someone pay. The Browns still won't get in the win column but only because the Saints will treat this as a must win home game, as they should. Cleveland 21 New Orleans 27, Browns cover in garbage time.
Miami +3 NY JETS
If Sam Darnold spends half the season putting together impressive wins for the Jets, a conspiracy is going to start to gain momentum. Here is that conspiracy: Sam Darnold, using his Joe Namath like cockiness/confidence, purposefully threw a pick on his first pass by egregiously violating the most widely known rule of playing quarterback, don't throw across the field AND across your body. He did this so that everyone would immediately start comparing him to Brett Favre, the most recent Hall of Fame quarterback whose first professional pass was also a pick six. The second half offensive explosion may have had more to do with Detroit's defensive ineptitude but the Jets defense, in it's third year of direction and development by Todd Bowles, is for real. They will be the second best team in the AFC East but it will take a few weeks for Vegas to believe it so take advantage while the disbelief lasts. Miami 17 NY Jets 24
Kansas City +4 PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh played half a game and as a result got half a win...and half a loss. KC blasted their way into the AFC champions discussion with a swift outscoring of the choke artists who formerly resided in San Diego. Pittsburgh is missing Le'veon Bell but James Conner handled the load well. Granted he's not Le'veon, but they could do much worse. KC scored 38 points while mainly using Kareem Hunt as a decoy for play action and without tapping into the Travis Kelce well. Pittsburgh's defense didn't exactly inspire confidence and neither did Kansas City's since both of them could not stop anything in the second half. Only difference? Patrick Mahomes was able to sustain accurate passing and efficient offensive production unlike Big Ben. Historically, Pittsburgh has had KC's number, winning six of their past eight meetings over the last nine years, but KC will start to turn that trend around this weekend, albeit in a shoot-out. Pittsburgh 32 Kansas City 35
Philadelphia -3.5 TAMPA BAY
Oh, ho, ho
FITZMAGIC, you know
startin' to believe it is so!
The Universe wants to force Dirk Koetter's hand. Conspiring powers want to see a 3-0 Bucs team when Winston is eligible to play again. If they are down week four to the Bears with Winston at QB, is a halftime switch back to Fitz really out of the realm of possibilty? Meanwhile, the Eagles lazy approach and sleepwalking through games will result in a wake up call loss eventually and this seems like the perfect time for it. This will be the survivor pool killer of the week after which Wentz will magically be ready for week three as immediate panic sets siege to Philadelphia pundits and fans. Philadelphia 22 Tampa Bay 24
Indianapolis +6 Washington
Lot of attention thrown Washington's way after Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson ran all over Arizona. Do these people heaping praise on Washington realize who they played? Arizona is likely fighting Buffalo for top draft position. I have a feeling Washington will continue to draw attention after they impress against another troubled team this week. Indy is still a partially developed picture. They have bright spots in Luck and Hilton but the defense will continue to be exposed just like their offensive line. Indy 20 Washington 28
Afternoon Action
Arizona +13 LA RAMS
At first glance everyone will jump on the Rams with this line. Despite the pitiful performance by Arizona and an impressive, physically fought win over Old School, Gruden-ized Oakland, you always need to be cautious with certain division matchups. The NFC West is one of those divisions where it tends not to matter what record teams have. They often have each other's number and split series when everyone is expecting a sweep. All of that is true and important to keep in mind, however, this will not be one of those snake bite splits. Arizona was lucky to avoid a shut out against an above average Washington defense; they will need a turnover in field goal range or a miracle of sorts to score on the Rams. Arizona has a strong secondary but that will not matter much when their safeties have to stand directly behind their linebackers to prevent Todd "Demigod" Gurley from averaging twelve yards per carry. That will in turn open up the deep shot connections between Goff, Cooks and Woods which is the one rusty spot they showed on Monday Night (we'll chalk that rust up to zero preseason snaps). Sean Manion gets some time in the second half of this one along with Malcolm Brown. Arizona 6 Rams 39
Detroit +6 SAN FRANCISCO
Clueless on this one so I'm going with a push on the line. Are the Lions really as bad as the Jets and their rookie QB made them look on Monday Night? Are the 49ers still a darling playoff contender in the NFC if they lose this game? This line is a stay away for sure but I like the home team moneyline as part of a parlay. Detroit 21 SF 27
Oakland +6 DENVER
Oakland started two different versions of their team on Monday Night the first half team out muscled possibly the best defense in the league and held an explosive offensive slew of weapons to ten points. The second half team did the exact opposite. They stopped feeding Beast Mode, committed stupid penalties, turned the ball over to compound their problems and the defense effectively melted once Jared Goff got a hot hand and Gurley was the final spirit crusher. Lucky for Oakland, Denver doesn't even have a Todd Gurley impersonator let alone a definitive first string running back, unless Phillip Lindsay wasn't a fluke. Denver does however have a talented defense and a capable quarterback which makes for a strong Case to win. Oakland going 0-2 will keep the "Why did you trade Khalil" train barreling through Gruden's neighborhood. Denver 27 Oakland 17
New England -1.5 JACKSONVILLE
The marquee matchup of the afternoon and a rematch from the AFC Championship game last year. Yeah, a rematch with none of the same benefits of winning the AFC Championship, which is precisely why the Patriots will not care if they lose it. I think Jacksonville kept a whole bunch of offensive twists and secrets in their war chest against the Giants because they knew they wouldn't need it to win. I think Nathaniel Hackett and Doug Marrone pull out the kitchen sink for a win in a game reminiscent of the Dolphins surprising the Pats with the wildcat formation in September 2008. How great was that game for everyone who was not a Patriots fan? Chad Pennington was the QB in Miami and Ronnie Brown had all five touchdowns in the game! Now we all just wish the wildcat would have died with Tim Tebow's career, but enjoy a video reminder of its amazing origin.
Need a more logical reason for the Jaguars to win? How about not being able to remember a recent season where the Patriots did not drop an early game that made every doubt their ability to win the AFC again at least for one week? They are not going to lose to Detroit or Miami so this game is it. Jacksonville 24 New England 20
Sunday Night
NY Giants +3 DALLAS
The Dallas defense played better than expected but the offense looked anemic outside of one drive aided by penalties and Luke Kuechly missing part of it as well. The Giants offense was frustrated by Sacksonville who picked up right where they left off last season with pressure, sacks, turnovers and creating negative plays. Two positive takeaways from the Giants' loss were Odell looking like his old self and Saquon's speed and power already making an impact. The Giants defense impressively only gave up thirteen points and that would have been good enough for a win, save a pick six from their offense. If the Giants defense can contain Zeke and force Dak to throw to mediocre receivers, they should win. Overall, I think the Giants are the better team by a slight edge and clearly better talent wise, also they love to spoil opening night in Jerry World and have done so at least twice previously so I'll take the points in a match where they will be at a premium. Giants 20 Dallas 17
Monday Night
Seattle +3.5 CHICAGO
DA BEARS...da blew it! The new look Trubisky Bears set a positive tone early and showed flashes of creativity, they just ran out of that creativity before putting the final nail in the coffin. On defense the only thing you need to talk about is Khalil Mak; mostly because the other thing to talk about is how their secondary got shredded all second half when the rush was not getting to Rodgers. Seattle's already low ammo offense lost Doug Baldwin for at least a few weeks and I doubt Will Dissly repeats his week one performance. Tyler Lockett may have a big day and Brandon Marshall could benefit from the lackluster Bears secondary. When it comes to week two, as I've shown, I am all about the points when in doubt. Chicago strikes me as this year's "almost" team. Almost team - they just can't get over the hump; they almost pull the upset; they almost go .500. I just have to hope it doesn't spread to where they almost cover but then don't. Seattle 24 Chicago 21
2018 season record (ATS): 0-0
We're starting this season's ledger with $200.00 from past season success.
Here's who I like this week (all bets on Bovada.lv) and only bets with money amounts are counted in the ledger. This is all "hypothetical and just for statistical research purposes of course, no need to bother the IRS for auditing purposes.
Locks of the Weekend
Vanderbilt +13.5 Notre Dame - Listen to a fierce Fightin' Irish fan, never take ND playing a supposedly inferior opponent when laying more than six points. Historically, they only cover 40% of the time in those situations and since 2008 they are 40-52-3 (a 43% cover rate).
LA Chargers -7.5 (-105) $15 to win $14.29
Upset Alerts
Syracuse +3 Florida State (-120) or +125 moneyline to win which is what I expect the Orange to do!
Duke +6.5 Baylor (-110) or +200 moneyline to win which is what I expect the Blue Devils to do!
Parlay Play
LA Chargers, LA Rams, New Orleans, San Fran all to win (-140) $10 to win $14
Duke & Syracuse to win (+565) $5 to win $28.25
Tease if you Please
6.5 point tease (+500) $10 to win $50.00
Washington -6 becomes +.5
New Orleans -9 becomes -2
LA Chargers -7.5 becomes -1 & Over 43 in this game becomes 36.5
LA Rams -13 becomes -6.5
New England -1 become +5.5
I like Washington to win but not confidently enough to make them part of the parlay. I like New England in the tease because anytime a tease can get them more than a field goal it tends to work out in their favor.
2018 Football Ledger: $200.00 currently; $40 encumbered in current bets
As long as Hurricane Florence doesn't knock out my power I'll post my NFL week 2 reactions by Tuesday, so don't miss it.