YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 3 Picks
Categorization is a really helpful organizational tool. It helps bring order to the chaos of a closet, kitchen junk drawer and movie display shelves. In an attempt to bring logic and order to the seemingly illogical and chaotic NFL I've sorted the 32 teams into five categories now that we have a whopping two week sample size. My week 3 picks follow the categories as well as an update to the Keylime Ledger. Teams are in no particular order under each category.
Contenders
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers - because Aaron Rodgers
These are the only seven teams that are currently legitimate contenders for the super bowl trophy this year. Yes anything can happen and moves before the trade deadline could certainly swing some key pieces to needy places but I'd bet almost anything that one of these teams will be lifting the trophy in Atlanta on February 3rd, 2019.
Promising Pretenders
New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
These teams all hold their fans hostage with false hope this season. The Saints are one competent Cleveland kicker away from being 0-2. The Steelers for all intensive purposes appear to be a locker room chemistry experiment that's one slip from exploding and it seems Antonio Brown is holding the beaker ready to drop it out of spite. The Bengals have won two games over mediocre at best competition and even if they make a playoff run no one in the known universe expects them to win it. The Falcons and Panthers both have the roster talent to challenge teams deep into the postseason but they won't because the Panthers can't muster enough offense to extinguish any of the contender teams and the Falcons are the Jekyll and Hyde of sports franchises, week to week you never know who will show up. The 49ers may be ahead of schedule but they are not winning more than eight games with their schedule and that's if half of them come from their division. The Chargers are well the chargers, they confound us all with dropped balls, missed kicks, stupid penalties and the most poorly times lapses in judgement outside of Cleveland, Ohio. Houston has no offensive line so they'll only be able to go as far as Watson's legs and Hopkins' jump ball skills can take them. Baltimore will continue to rely on defense to inject life to the offense and at some point they'll play teams that don't allow that to happen and the Ravens will lose those games.
Sneaky Salesmen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans
Dallas Cowboys
Washington
I'm not buying what any of these teams are selling no matter how many fancy wrappers and ribbons they're covered with in September. By the time December rolls around the rotting fish smell will be clearly evident despite any camouflage.
Extensive Assembly Still Required Squads
New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks
Oakland Raiders
Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
The Giants are one more loss away from "manning" the lifeboats. Seattle is pathetic. The Legion of Boom now has a lot in common with the Legion of Doom, they both lose all the time. Gruden's honeymoon in Oakland was over almost a week before the season started when he sent Khalil's suitcases to Chicago. At this rate he's going to need the move to Vegas more than anyone, although the Raiders will beat Miami this weekend. The Bears are the most fun surprise of the early season so far. They are really the most dynamic opening drive offense the NFL has seen in recent years but after Nagy's script is played out they struggle BUT the Midway Mack defense makes every offense struggle for yards and points. In week one the Browns learned how to tie. Last night, to start week three, they learned how to win behind Baker Mayfield. It would've been hilarious if the Bud Light in the victory fridges had all skunked by the time they popped open but at least the city of Cleveland got a free cold one last night. It was Bud light after all so some people probably prefer a skunked actual beer to it anyway.
Candidates for First Overall Pick of 2019
Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals
Buffalo Bills
The Lions evidently hate their new coach or at least enough of them do to wonder which white guy with bad hair is more in over his head, Matt Patricia or Donald Trump? The Cardinals can't catch anything because Bradford has no time to throw anything and when he does its usually off target due to his inaccuracy. Meanwhile, the Bills are finding new ways to redefine the words deplorable, pathetic, shameful, embarrassing, wretched and horrific. The Bills had a defensive back retire during halftime because he would rather not play football anymore than get blown out so badly every week. As a Bills fan if we make it through the season without Josh Allen or any other key players suffering serious injury that alone will be a win. I can't wait to start reading mock draft reports after Thanksgiving. This was the best conversation about the Vontae Davis halftime retirement:
Week 3 NFL Picks
Current 2018 Record (ATS): 6-9
Oakland +3 MIAMI
Don't sleep on Jon Gruden! Marshawn Lynch will finally be fed the ball for 60 minutes instead of just the first fifteen. I give you the surprise upset of the weekend. Oakland 24 Miami 20
New Orleans +3 ATLANTA
Buffalo +17 MINNESOTA
San Fran +7 KANSAS CITY
Indy +7 PHILADELPHIA
Green Bay -3 WASHINGTON
CAROLINA -3 Cincinnati
JACKSONVILLE (NL) Tennessee
Mariota's availability in question has this line on delay but I can forsee a slow start for Sacksonville after their "big" win over the Patriots. I like Jacksonville to win but not by much. If the line is 6 or more take the points. Jacksonville 14 Tennessee 13
HOUSTON +6 New York Giants
What edge do you want in the battle of the worst offensive lines in the league? The more mobile and creative quarterback so I'll take Watson. The loser of this game is all but done for the season so added motivation for both sides to get off the schneid. Houston 26 NY Giants 17
Denver +5 BALTIMORE
LA RAMS -7 Los Angeles Chargers
Chicago -6 ARIZONA
Dallas +1.5 SEATTLE
Seattle has no business giving points to Dallas, even at home. If the Cowboy offense, mainly Scott Linehan, continue to open their playbook past the Zeke runs and Dak flat routes such as the Tavon Austin and Zone read plays showed they will be able to compete and win behind an impressive defense that is tougher than most people expected.
New England -7 DETROIT
Bill Belichick is 11-6 since 2001 against his seven former coaching staff members who have gone on to become head coaches. That will be 12-6 after Sunday's late game. New England 34 Detroit 17
TAMPA BAY +3 Pittsburgh
Fitzmagic may have already worked his way back into yet another starting job thanks to unexpected universal forces conspiring for him. The Steelers are a mess and Tomlin does not seem to care about any locker room chemistry issues created by Bell's absence nor about the front office feuding with star wide out Antonio Brown. The Bucs keep the magic moving for at least one more week. Pittsburgh fans even if you win you are at best tied with Cleveland in your division so you still lose. Tampa Bay 33 Pittsburgh 31
Starting Amount: $200.00
Week 2 results: +$86.54
Current balance: $286.54
As always picks in BOLD and only $ amounts are in the ledger.
Lock of the Weekend
Patriots -7 Detroit (-115)
Upset alerts
Oakland +145 money line to win over Miami
Parlay Play
5 teams all must win (+358) $10 to win 44.62
Chicago, Green Bay, Kansas City, LA Rams, New England
Tease Please
7 point teaser (+200) $25 to win $50
Green Bay -3 goes to +4
KC -7 goes to 0
LA Rams -7 goes to 0
New England -7 goes to 0
Good luck gamblers!