YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 4 Picks
From this point forward, week three will forever be known as auto-correct week in the NFL. An upset special moneyline parlay of Tennessee, Washington, NY Giants, Buffalo and Detroit would've paid nearly $10K for a $5 bet, had anyone been silly enough to actually place that bet. None of those teams were expected to win but all did; the Bills and Lions doing so in convincing, surprising fashion to say the least. So how did these average to extreme underdogs pull off wins over arguably some of the strongest competition the NFL can offer up? There are a few theories that make the most sense:
Man Up Theory
It stands to reason that 0-2 teams, especially those that have been embarrassed in one or both of those losses, would be extra motivated to come out and win no matter the opponent. Realizing that without a victory in the first three games their season is likely over or at the very least a long shot from being even mediocre. Think about it, even on the worst of rosters (Buffalo this year, Cleveland almost any other) no team starts their season thinking they are going to fail but when you're looking up from 0-2, likely from the bottom of your division, its gut check time. This is true for coaches as much as players. Anyone who takes pride in their work is going to try their best when being highlighted as a failure or slacker in said work. This theory would explain the biggest upsets we saw last week from Detroit and Buffalo, who no one really expected to win. You were more likely to find Vikings and Patriots fans that thought the Bills and Lions would win, respectively, than from their own fan bases. The Bills and Lions players and coaches looked in the mirror and said not this week, no matter what we're leaving it all on the field today and winning this game and they were able to do it. But we all know how emotional swings go, they are not sustainable. It's tough to stretch the emotion one week to another let alone over a full NFL season.
Capital Conspiracy Theory
Unlucky gamblers everywhere, myself included sometimes, will tell you a tale of the NFL being elaborately rigged. All or at least some certain games are decided or tampered with Buffalo Wild Wings button style, by the Vegas sportsbooks. What other explanation could there be for a 17 point underdog winning 27-0 late into the fourth quarter of a game, on the road? You know who won big in that game? Not the Bills, VEGAS BABY, VEGAS! In all honest though through a logical lens, there's just too many variables at play to truly believe this theory. It also gives humanity too much credit for ingenuity levels, of which we are undeserving.
The Preseason is NOW Theory
More and more we hear and see examples that teams are treating the month of September like the preseason once their final 53 man roster is set. This leads to a process of feeling out some positions and finding what pieces fit best in certain spots. In that process some of the best development and scheme focused teams are willing to trade an early season loss for later season and sustained success, see New England since 2010 for prime examples of this process. How often are teams that win everyone's September heart also winning the Lombardi Trophy in February? Last year at this time the Chiefs and Falcons were atop everyone's Power Rankings and neither of them made it to the Conference Championship game and only one had a playoff game at home. All I'm saying is watch out Rams fans its only 4-0 still A LOT of work to do.
Cleveland's Chaos Theory
My personal favorite is that all the chaos of last week was due to Cleveland making it snow in hell when they finally won a game to start the week 3 upset chain reaction process on Thursday night. Cleveland took a step at turning the unlucky tables that have historically sloped downward, spilling all sorts of $h!+ their way. In the process they tossed a monkey wrench into the works and now everything will be haywire and unpredictable moving forward. Thanks a lot Cleveland! Wouldn't it be rather amusing if not amazing if they went 5-5-6 or 6-6-4!
Parity
The boring theory that is most likely at play to some degree in all the situations last week is that no team in the NFL is truly that far from any other skill or ability wise. This is best exemplified when the 8-8 or worse wildcard team who slips into the playoffs makes a run. Similarly to divisions where titles are traded from worst to first teams and passed around like an item at kindergarten show and tell (see the AFC West and NFC South for most recent examples). This is the theory that lends credence to the phrase "any given sunday." Any team at their best can stand against any other team, especially if that other team is not at their best on a day. Guys that make it to this level of play are just too talented and skilled to be that drastically outmatched. Of course there are the players that are unique step above; that top 10% of special generational type players, and thank goodness for them otherwise fantasy football would be even more pointless than it already is. This is most likely the theory to blame for the close games that went the underdog's way such as Washington and Tennessee and countless others that will happen until mid to late November when the powerhouse teams really hit their stride.
Week 4 NFL Picks
Last Week Record: 6-8-1
Current Record (ATS): 12-17-1
Certainly in need of a strong showing this week to get on the plus side of things. Home team in CAPS, pick in bold and lines from bovada.lv as always.
Cincinnati +4 ATLANTA
I don't think I'll ever believe in Atlanta, I certainly didn't last year even after they beat the Rams in the wildcard round. While in that instance I was wrong, I'm right about not trusting them. The Falcons when favored are the hard 16 in blackjack if the line is small enough hit it, too big stay away but most importantly be consistent with your approach and in the long run you'll win. Cincy is better than my preseason thoughts and they'll keep this close and could even pull out a sneaky win if Atlanta classically Falcs up. Cincy 28 Atlanta 31
CHICAGO -3 Tampa Bay
Two enigma squads here. Chicago's offense looks unstoppable when flowing through Nagy's scripts and not turning the ball over and when their rush gets home it hides a very vulnerable secondary but one that will continue to improve as the season progresses. Tampa Bay's offense, meanwhile, may be just as explosive as the Rams and Chiefs. Their defense leave something to be desired but they are not bad as they showed in a strong second half against the Steelers to give their offense a chance to catch up which they almost did. If the Bucs start Fitzpatrick they should win this game but if Jameis "weird W eater" Winston lines up under center its going to be interesting. The rust he'll be shaking off may allow the Bears the advantage they need. Chicago 24 Tampa Bay w/ Fitz 28 w/o Fitz 20 That "eat a W" video is still one of the weirdest things I've ever seen and I've watched Zombeavers on Netflix.
DALLAS -3 Detroit
Last week Seattle was giving Dallas 2.5 and I thought I took the better team getting points, I was way off. Detroit has a better offense but Dallas has the better defense when Sean Lee is playing that is, which is not likely. I'll go with the team who has wide receivers to spare over the team collecting spare parts as wide receivers plus the free field goal. Detroit 27 Dallas 20
GREEN BAY -9.5 Buffalo
Something with Aaron Rodgers' leg is clearly not right and he's admitted that but has not shared specifics. Green Bay losing wasn't even the most disappointing thing to happen in D.C. this past week. I am of course referring to the Miky Woodz & DJ Lobo live concert being cancelled. Meanwhile, on the road, the Bills managed twenty seven first half points en route to stunning Green Bay's square dance partner from the previous week, the Vikings. Josh Allen has foolish Bills fans thinking he's the second coming of Jim Kelly but I need consistent play before I'll believe in this lackluster squad of mine and I doubt Green Bay will be gifting them three turnovers inside their own thirty in the first quarter like the Vikings did. The next three games are needed easy wins compared to the tough stretch after their bye week. Green Bay needs a win and they'll get one will the Bills keep gamblers interested with garbage time back door cover efforts. Green Bay 35 Buffalo 24
Philadelphia -4 TENNESSEE
Tennessee is covering their true Gabberty stink so far by beating an underwhelming and toilet circling Texans team and catching Jacksonville off an emotional revenge victory over the Patriots. Carson Wentz, rust and all, summoned enough to beat the Colts in a tight one and he'll look more sharp this week, particularly if Alshon Jeffrey is cleared to play. Philly 30 Tennessee 17
INDIANAPOLIS -1 Houston
Speaking of the toilet circling Texans, I'm having a firesale for my remaining Houston stock. The title of offensive line is fitting because they're about as effective as a line in the sand. Bill O'Brien continues to hamstring his talented QB with horrific play calling. Indy has impressed thus far and will continue to trend upward with a relatively tamer schedule. I'm starting to view them as a dark horse wildcard team too. Luck and the Colts will send the first coach packing for the season when they win this week. Indy 26 Houston 23
NEW ENGLAND -7 Miami
The Patriots September swoon is nothing new but no one is really panicking yet, at least outside of the Boston area, and so in order to really get to that point they'll need to drop another game or two before we turn around in January and they're the first seed of the AFC yet again. I know this line is minus seven points but what would the line need to be for number of games behind Miami in the fourth week of the season for anyone to think New England wont win the division? I think seven is about right for that. Take the points and the fish here, Bill's still prepping the main course in the kitchen so Miami will make off with the appetizers. Miami 24 New England 23
JACKSONVILLE -7.5 NY Jets
The Jags will be upset off a give away game to Tennessee and the Jets crash landed in Cleveland after flying high the first week. Sam Darnold is likely going to have his worst week all season facing Sacksonville and their ball hawking secondary. The Jags will win BIG in a walk away and the safest Survivor pool pick this week. Jacksonville 34 NY Jets 10
Cleveland +3 OAKLAND
Can Cleveland handle success? Can Gruden swallow 0-4? Can Baker Mayfield be the football success story his city has pined for since James Brown? I don't know any of these answers and I'm clueless on this result too. I'm going to go with the Man Up theory on this one and assume Gruden will get his first win that he's let slip through his hands twice now. Oakland 24 Cleveland 20
Seattle -3 ARIZONA
Simple math here:
Wilson > Rosen
Seattle D + Inexperienced Rookie QB = turnovers & trouble for Zona
David Johnson - Blocking + point deficits = < 12 carries per game
These all add up to one thing, everyone feels bad for Larry Fitzgerald yet again.
New Orleans -3.5 NY GIANTS
The Saints got their groove back in Atlanta last week. Yes they have historically looked off their game when outside but the forecast is 73 and sunny with barely five mile per hour winds so they might as well be in a dome. Going back to the blackjack analogy well one more time, the Giants are the hard 11 starting hand in blackjack that you double when the dealer shows a 6 and you still somehow lose. They have all this promise with a stud receiver and emerging talent at tight end and tailback and among their other wide receivers too. Their defense and quarterback just seem to be dragging them down to the 2-3 card that gets flipped before the dealer hits a 4 on their sixteen. I just don't trust the Giants to be a playoff caliber team, something they have not done since overtime in week 11 last year when Kansas City laid an egg at MetLife. New Orleans 35 NYG 27
LA CHARGERS -10.5 San Francisco
Too many points being given to a team out to prove to itself as much as others that they can win without Jimmy G. Don't sleep on CJ Beathard! Just kidding! The only reason San Fran covers is if the Chargers give up garbage time points for a backdoor cover so be wise and tease this line. LA 34 SF 21
PITTSBURGH -3 Baltimore
Did any of you know that "there is no love loss between these franchises?" Did you know that there is an over/under of 3.5 on the number of times this is said by the Sunday Night Football pregame commentators and Chris Collinsworth? I'm taking the over. Pittsburgh gets the win at home but Baltimore gets the cover both in ugly fashion. Pittsburgh 18 Baltimore 17
Kansas City -5 DENVER
Denver is the best defense that Patrick Mahomes will face thus far and he's still going to torch them. If KC can keep Von Miller from being a one man wrecking crew the arsenal of weapons they have will out stretch the Broncos secondary. Case Keenum and company are going to have to keep pace with the Chiefs high octane attack. They will be able to initially because the Chiefs defense is slightly imaginary but eventually they'll get out run. Kansas City 38 Denver 28
Last Week's Starting Amount: $286.54 (+$86.54)
Week 3 results: -$35.00
Current Balance: $251.54
Lock of the Weekend
Jacksonville -7.5 NY Jets (-115) $20 to win $17.39
Upset Alerts
Dolphins +225 win over Patriots
Lions +120 win over Cowboys
Parlay Play
5 teams all must win (+490) $10 to win $49.00
Packers, Jags, Seahawks, Saints, Chiefs
Tease Please
A sweetheart ten point teaser (+275) $10 to win $27.50
Green Bay -9.5 goes to +.5
Indianapolis -1 goes to +9
Jacksonville -7.5 goes to +2.5
Seattle -3 goes to +7
LAC -10.5 goes to -.5
New Orleans -3.5 goes to +6.5
Detroit +3 goes to +13
Good luck fellow gamblers! I'm hoping week 4 will be renamed rebound week.