YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 5 Picks
This week has three gripping story line matchups and I'm sure at least one game at each of the Sunday early slots will surprise us and be more entertaining than expected. I'm in the midst of work conference travels and slightly exhausted so short and sweet this week, lets get down to business.
Week 5 NFL Picks
Last Week: 8-6-1
Current Record (ATS): 20-23-2
Starting to get back on track, my goal will be to have a .600 or better record come time for the playoffs so still plenty of work to do. HOME TEAM in caps, picks in bold and lines at bovada.lv as always.
Green Bay -2 DETROIT
This semi-annual matchup has quietly offered up some of the more entertaining games and astonishing finishes over the past few seasons. There was the week 17 Matt Flynn game that got him quite the lucrative contract for keeping the Lions out of the playoffs, A.K.A. letting nature take its course. There is the recent sweep of the Rodgersless Packers by the Lions last year and of course the early December Miracle in Motown of 2015. Stafford is only 5-10 historically against the Packers and while he may be in line to claim the most touchdown passes against the pack trophy later this season (he needs 5 more) he's not going to end his career with much more than that, sadly. Green Bay 27 Detriot 23
Tennessee -3.5 BUFFALO
A defensive crapfest if ever there was one. Mariota will likely have more rushing yards than passing in this one and Josh Allen will likely have more incompletions than Mariota has attempts. Tennessee would be wise to play ball control and not give the Bills any turnover opportunities. The stats won’t speak to it this year but Buffalo's defense is highly effective they're just unable to play shutdown stout defense when the offense's failures led to the D spending 80% of the game on the field. This will be a messy, rainy, boring, defense dominant game. Tennessee 20 Buffalo 12
Baltimore -3 CLEVELAND
The Ravens exorcised their first demons of the season on Sunday night by going into Heinz Field and outplaying and outcoaching the Steelers. That was a crucial division win that puts their common enemy on the ropes early. They'll get another win thanks to their defense confusing Baker Mayfield in only his second start. Look for a lot of lineman standing up and wandering around at the line of scrimmage to keep the rookie QB and Todd Haley guessing. Baltimore 24 Cleveland 13
Denver (pk) NY JETS
Denver should be rightfully aggravated with themselves for letting a ten point lead and thus a victory at home against a divsion rival slip through their fingertips on Monday. The Jets will stay in this one early thanks to defense and any Denver jet lag (no pun intended) but by the end of the game Keenum and company will find a way to outscore an offense that looks anemic at the best of times. Lots of field goals in this one - Denver 23 NY Jets 16
KANSAS CITY -3 Jacksonville
Our top intriguing game of the day and that's right I'm not taking two, three or even four road teams but five (three as favorites) so this is dangerous territory. Road favorites are 9-7-2 so far this season so the slight edge is at least in my favor. Don't get me wrong, I love Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense but I'm still a believer that defense wins in the long run as well as championships. I also especially believe that when the following variables are in play:
1) Weather is a factor. The rainy weather prediction favors the Jaguars pound it out, play keep away approach. They executed this perfectly against the Patriots and Brady could never get in a groove on the limited number of opportunities they allowed him. I look for them to take a similar approach to keeping Mahomes on the bench as often as possible.
2) One team has not lost yet. There is just an extra level of pressure to keep the undefeated streak alive for that team and it can sometimes cause the one mistake or slip up that determines a game. I don't know about Kansas City but I'd rather it happen now than in January.
3) I trust one coach more than another in critical moments. Andy Reid just does confusing stuff sometimes; weird challenge calls, using timeouts at the wrong time or not calling timeouts when they're needed, etc. Doug Marrone is only in his second year as Jaguars head coach but his previous stint in Buffalo taught me that we lost yet another promising coach, thanks to our hapless GM at the time, Doug Whaley. Marrone butted heads with Whaley on many issues (Draft trade ups for EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins as two of the biggest examples and we saw how those turned out) but he never made his decision to leave about that or publicly caused issue for the team. He's a bigger man than those who would stoop to the petty power plays and political sabotage game. He sets that example to his team and I think alongside the front office under Tom Coughlin's guidance they have this franchise charting a course toward a decade of success and they are only two steps into that journey.
4) One team's defense is imaginary. The KC secondary has shown that they can't stop a nosebleed and will probably only improve marginally if/when Eric Berry returns, after all he's only one man. Let's be realistic, KC is one errant Case Keenum pass away from being 3-1 instead of undefeated. Say what you will about Blake Bortles being a game manager but the guy has proven he gets up and shows up for big games. Look at his college resume, his playoff run last year and the game against the Patriots two weeks ago.
Jacksonville will win this game outright as the media frenzy for Mahomes finally dies down a bit after he throws his first pick of the season. Yeah that's right the kid has 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions through four games! Umm, maybe I should rethink...no no I'm sticking with the Jags, or...well...hmm. I'm taking the Jags but with this disclaimer: If the Chiefs win it's because we are witnessing the Michael Jordan of the NFL's arrival in Patrick Mahomes. Jacksonville 24 Kansas City 21
CINCINNATI -5.5 Miami
The Bengals have been waaaaaaaayyyyy better than expected and now they get Vontaze Burfict back in the lineup (well at least for a few plays before he inevitably gets suspended again). Over/Under on number of plays before Burfict draws a flag for unsportsmanlike conduct is set at two and I’m taking the under. Their offense certainly took a hit when Tyler Eifert went down last weekend but that's not unfamiliar territory, unfortunately for Eiffert, who I hope just retires because as a Notre Dame fan it stinks to watch him get these brutal injuries one after another, only months apart. The Dolphins, meanwhile, finally had their foul fish smell exposed by the Patriots last weekend. While I am sure they will actually show up to play this week, I don't see Tannehill looking much better against a similar rush and coverage scheme. In contrast, Andy Dalton has pro bowl performance so far and has a whole slew of targets to toss the ball to even without Eifert. AJ Green is still catching 6-10 balls a game and Tyler Boyd finally looks like the secondary threat for which they have been hoping. John Ross, sans a groin pull, will serve in a valuable outlet role. If they can just get their backfield healthy they look like the team who will finish atop the AFC North with the Ravens trailing them by a game or two. Cincinnati 30 Miami 20
PITTSBURGH -3 Atlanta
The second super intriguing game of the day. I'm going to use a drawn out and diluted comparison evaluation here so strap in! Pittsburgh's lone win is over the Bucs while Atlanta's is over the Panthers. I think Carolina is better than the Bucs so Atlanta's win would mean more comparatively. Last week the Steelers lost to Baltimore and Atlanta lost a shoot out to Cincinnati. Two weeks prior Cincinnati beat Baltimore so another point in favor of Atlanta having the tougher opponent. Pittsburgh's other loss is to the conference leading Chiefs along with a tie to Cleveland. Atlanta has another shootout loss to the Saints and an ugly blown game against the Eagles. Both of these teams are underachieving and its due, chiefly, to their pitiful defensive performances. Pittsburgh doesn't seem to have a defense and Atlanta's is injured and each week the injuries just keep mounting. The loser of this game will need to go 9-3 in their remaining games just to hit ten wins. While an AFC wildcard team will likely get in at 9-7, the NFC is far too crowded with talent for that to be the case and the Falcons, being in the most competitive division of the NFC, have to know that. I’m also just not buying that the Steelers are ok without Le'veon. I think his holdout caused a domino effect of chemistry issues in that locker room that Tomlin just wants to ignore and hope go away. They are not going away! Atlanta finds a way to pull out a road win 37-35 over Pittsburgh.
CAROLINA -7 NY Giants
This could turn into the blowout of the afternoon. Carolina is coming off a bye, at home and will be doling out punishment to a Giant's defense that wears down over the course of a game thanks to it’s offense’s propensity for punting. The halftime score will look closer than it feels mostly because Carolina lacks any truly scary wide out weapons but the Panthers will pull away about halfway into the third quarter. Look for a big game from Christian McCaffrey and possibly even bigger from CJ Anderson if they need to kill clock in the second half. Carolina 30 NY Giants 16
LA Chargers -4.5 Oakland
I hate giving points with the Chargers but I’m about to do it again. They did everything they could to give last week's game to the 49ers and San Fran just could not capitalize one more time. Oakland maybe getting one point too many here and could end up winning. However, Phil Rivers loves carving up the Oakland secondary and has the record for most TDs against them to prove it. Rivers has their number and Oakland’s defense is a mess! LAC 28 Oakland 21
PHILADELPHIA -3 Minnesota
The third marquee matchup of the day. Minnesota needs this game badly. Similarly to Pittsburgh a loss here could put them three games back in the division, only five weeks into the season. With their division shaping up to be the second most challenging in the NFC they can ill afford to continuing digging a deep hole for themselves. The Eagles are still shaking the rust off and trying to avoid the injury bug in their backfield for just one week. It’s near impossible to not predict a shootout in this game since neither teams' defense is stopping anyone right now. I'm not confident in it at all but I think Minnesota finds a way to win this game which will help increase the fear and disbelief in Philly even though they'll be just fine come December and playoff time. Minnesota 30 Philadelphia 28
SAN FRANCISCO -4 Arizona
Neither of these teams should be giving more than two points to anyone regardless of where the game is played, so I’ll take the free four. Arizona 17 SF 20
LA Rams -7.5 SEATTLE
The Rams have won all their games by double digits. They are beyond loaded with roster talent. The only recipe to beat them is to keep their offense on the sidelines but in order to do that you need to be able to sustain drives against a scary front four and a skilled secondary. There are, maybe, five offenses capable of doing that with regularity when at full strength, Seattle is not one of them. The Seahawks are certainly a stronger team at home; one of the few squads to still get a power boost with home field advantage. However, the 12th man usually just leads to opponents getting a slow start and maybe getting some additional false starts, etc. Short of the Rams having a really bad day at the office with turnovers and dropped balls while Seattle has their best day at the office there is no reason the double digit victory streak does not continue here. While anything is possible, including that scenario, the Rams having three additional days of prep makes me even more confident in this as the lock of the weekend. LA Rams 37 Seattle 13
HOUSTON -3 Dallas
The Texans have a faint pulse which is a fitting descriptor for Bill O'Brien's head coaching life expectancy. He's going to be week to week on the chopping block until they are maybe five games over .500 and I truly believe Frank Reich saved his job with that OT decision to play for the win last weekend. Dallas' offense is going to be swallowed up by Watt and Clowney who are finally playing healthy together and showing what could have been the past two years, if not for their respective injuries. Bill staves off the sickle one more week with a win. This is a perfect push line, stay away from this game. Houston 24 Dallas 21
NEW ORLEANS -6.5 Washington
The Saints, at home, on a Monday Night certainly own one of the few environments that can throw an opponent off their game. Washington has had two weeks to heal some players and get a game plan ready. Despite the extra time, I still trust Brees and Payton more than Smith and Gruden, not to mention any team’s game plan keyed around Alvin Kamara is going to put up 30 points minimum, in their sleep. Just like all Alex Smith teams, the difficulty becomes can they keep up with a high scoring team. Washington needs to hold teams to 21 points or less to have a shot at winning most weeks. While Washington’s defense is good and has yet to allow 200 yards passing, I just don't see them doing that in New Orleans, especially not when the Saints are getting another weapon back in Mark Ingram. New Orleans 33 Washington 24
Last Week's starting amount: $251.54 (+$51.45)
Week 4 results: +93.89
Current Balance: $345.43
Bounce back week four, for sure! Went three for three on my bets last week and I’m well on my way to doubling my starting balance for the year.
Lock of the Weekend
LA Rams -7.5 Seattle (-110) $10 to win $9.09
Upset Alerts
No major blips on my radar this week which is always a worry because you don't know where the punch to the gut will come from but these are some I'd consider if you like an upset bet.
Oakland +190 moneyline to win. Let’s face it the Chargers were itching last week to give the game away and they just might this Sunday.
Vikings +140 and Atlanta +150 are other enticing moneyline underdogs
Parlay Play
Patriots, Panthers, Ravens & Rams all win (+225) $25 to win $56.35
-I clearly put this in Thursday before the Patriots won but you can still group the other three for a +180 parlay line
Tease Please
Six point teaser (+150) $20 to win $30
Rams -7.5 goes to -1.5
Panthers -6.5 goes to -.5
Bengals -5.5 goes to +.5
Keep the money rolling in!