YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 6 Picks
Well, week five games proved that kicking skills are still in dire need throughout the league, offense always overtakes defense in today's modern NFL, the Patriots are warming up and the refs still don't know what qualifies as roughing the passer. The Refs are not the only ones confused, a bunch of teams have me still scratching my head five weeks into the season. Here are the teams I've pretty much got pegged and the one's that seem to be weekly mysteries and thus have me befuddled.
They are who I thought they were:
New England - they're warming up and while their defense is going to be exposed by the Chiefs we'll see if Tom's refueled arsenal can keep up with the Kansas City Kid this week. For the most part trust New England to get the job done especially at home and especially against crummy squads
Buffalo - one of those crummy squads who will win games in the ugliest fashion imaginable so teams that play ugly, like the Titans, will be vulnerable to the upset. Also, the Bills are a proud team especially on defense, so watch the large spreads when they are at home. They're also an NFL team so anytime someone spots them a few turnovers they're a strong enough team to win the game if the offense can cash in.
New York Jets - took me all of five games to figure them out but I finally have and they are one of the Jekyll and Hyde teams you are just better off staying away from because any given week they could be high flying or they could be grounded and there's no indicator prior to kickoff what the status will be. (Puns intended) Speaking of Jekyll and Hyde:
Cincinnati - they're good and if they can stay healthy they should be the class of their division but their biggest tests are still in front of them. They need to take the crown from the Steelers this week and the Ravens in week 11.
Cleveland - the Browns have a talented roster, talented beyond what most folks thought and they are going to hang in games and fight til the end. The don't seem likely to get blown out with their impressive pass rush and two corners playing well beyond expectations, especially the rookie, Denzel Ward. They're still learning to win but if they get any big lines take the points especially when they're at home.
Houston - not the offensive juggernaut I thought they would be at the outset but Deshaun is catching up to where he left off last season. Their defense has recently shown a scary efficiency at getting to the quarterback. They're a five hundred squad thanks to the failings of their offensive line but if they can win a game or two they don't deserve they just may back into the playoffs yet. I think their coach makes enough mistakes to not let that happen.
Tennessee - the Titans are a more offensively skilled version of Buffalo. Their receivers are better, their quarterback is more experienced and mobile, they have a young coach preaching the importance of team wins and the sum being more important than it's parts and their defense is surprisingly "bend don't break" tough as well as opportunistic. If the Jaguars keep faltering they may just ugly win their way to a division title.
Indianapolis - a team trying to find their identity. Call it a culture change, a switch in leadership, an overhaul, rebuild or whatever you like but the Colts are still searching for who they want to become. Frank Reich seems to be feeling out his team's strengths, diagnosing what buttons he can push and when. I think he'll eventually get them back on track but it will not be this year.
Kansas City - they are the best team in the AFC right now despite having a disgraceful defense. The playoffs will be the next test they really need to worry about and it remains one of the few unknowns about this team.
Oakland - not good but playing worse than they should. Gruden growing pains seem to be a real issue for Derek Carr and if the red zone turnovers don't stop soon I would not be surprised if Gruden benches him to send a real message to the young quarterback.
Denver - defense and an above average offense were supposed to be the Broncos recipe to success this season. They were doing their best imitation of the 2017 Vikings, including using the same QB. So far the attempt at imitation is going poorly and I don't see it ending at better than 7-9 thanks to a friendly schedule. Although they may surprise some people this weekend, look in the ledger for more details.
Dallas - poor Dak Prescott has no one with any skill to throw the ball to, other than Zeke running wheel routes out of the backfield. Dallas has an offensive line playing half off reputation and a surprisingly skilled defense even without Sean Lee on the field the last couple weeks. Their coach is more of a hindrance than a help and their owner is well a good business man, I guess. Enjoy the seven or eight wins you'll get this season.
NY Giants - they suck! Outside of Odell's talent and Saquon's insane ability and skill they just are plain terrible. OBJ is only happy if his fantasy numbers are good (see Carolina loss post game interview if you don't believe me). Eli might be shouldering all the blame but there's plenty of it to go around.
Washington - Alex Smith will help this team beat most below average and average teams and they might even steal one or two from above average teams too. But they will do so by dink-and-dunking in the most boring fashion up and down the field. The defense is better than most expect although their secondary did not show that the past couple matchups.
Chicago - Mitchell and Mack are leading the way for the Bears. Both of them are exceeding expectations and have Bears fans believing, maybe a little too much, in their potential. I cannot entirely blame them though, since the NFC north seems to be up for grabs right now.
Detroit - has an experienced offensive arsenal and inept defensive line. They'll finish bottom of the NFC North but so far it looks as if Matt Patricia has taken the first few steps of installing his culture in Detroit. Next season's performance by this time will supply the first true culture renderings of Patricia's petri-dish.
Atlanta - an injured beyond repair defensive unit and an offense that can't seem to outscore anyone. Julio Jones still has not scored a TD and that is just despicable. Atlanta may have missed their window of success with an aging QB and many key players in contract years expecting a new deal.
Carolina - tough grind it out football and a creative enough offense with the ability to run the ball will continue to be their recipe for wins. However, in a shoot out with anyone but the Giants they will likely lose.
Tampa Bay - the magician's illusion finally dissipated after three weeks. The Buccaneers will be at best an 8-8 team and more likely below that mark. Jameis returning certainly should make one thing interesting; the prop bet of how many weeks before Ryan Fitzpatrick gets his next start 6.5 is the over/under.
San Francisco - hopeless and slightly hapless without Jimmy G. Sadly, its a lost year for the 49ers.
Seattle - competitive for sure but falling apart at the seems as well. Russell Wilson is the last remaining treasure from this franchise's most recent heyday. They have some young pieces of talent on defense and offense that may end up being part of the next heyday but that is not visible upon the horizon yet.
LA Rams - clearly the best team in the NFC and its not close right now, but there are a few months for those in the rearview mirror to catch up. Hopefully, they can avoid the injury bug because this team is entertaining for the entire sixty minutes.
Arizona - this team's ceiling is equivalent to Josh Rosen's as a rookie QB. The ceiling is not very high, it may in fact be the roof of their stadium.
The Enigma Squads
Miami, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans.
These teams have not been able to show a consistent week to week performance. Some of them have injury bugs to blame, at least partially, for the inconsistent play (Philly & Green Bay); others just enjoy taking on the role of Jekyll and Hyde (Miami, Baltimore, LA Chargers, New Orleans); while others, still may have lingering issues at a key position (Pittsburgh's defense, Minnesota and Jacksonville's respective QBs). Only time will tell what these team turn into and it will take longer for some.
Week 6 NFL Picks
Last week: 7-7
Current Record (ATS): 27-30-2
After a stalemate week I'm still three games back from being even. We right the ship this week. Home team in CAPS, picks in bold and lines from bovada.lv as always.
ATLANTA - 3 Tampa Bay
CINCINNATI -1 Pittsburgh
La Chargers PK CLEVELAND
Seattle -3 Oakland (London Game)
Chicago -3 MIAMI
MINNESOTA -10.5 Arizona
NY JETS -2 Indy
Carolina -1 WASHINGTON
HOUSTON -10 Buffalo
LA RAMS -7 Denver
Jacksonville -3.5 DALLAS
TENNESSEE +3 Baltimore
NEW ENGLAND -3 Kansas City
GREEN BAY -9.5 San Francisco
Lots of high point lines from teams who have proven multiple times this very season they have no business covering those lines. See the Keylime Ledger for just how confident I am in those underdogs.
Last week's starting amount: $345.43
Week 5 results: +$15.00
Current Balance: $350.43
A bit of an up and down week last week only going 1-3 but the money payout of the bet I won still kept me positive for the weekend.
Locks of the Weekend
La Chargers pk CLEVELAND (-105) $15 to win $14.29
Baltimore moneyline win over TENNESSEE (-140)
Upset Alerts
DENVER +7 LA Rams
The Rams are banged up and coming off a frustratingly physical matchup they barely won with Seattle. Now they have to play in Denver's mile high altitude and snow flurries to boot. The Rams defense is supposed to be a shut down selection of talent but they have not stopped anyone, with the exception of a Sam Bradford led Arizona and they struggled to find the end zone against any defense. Denver, meanwhile, needs a win in the worst kind of way. They have lost three straight including coughing up a ten point lead at home to the Chiefs and then being a no show at the Jets last week. This game has that week 3 Bills/Vikings kind of stink all over it and I won't be fooled again. The next survivor pool killer of the season has arrived.
Kansas City +3 NEW ENGLAND
Not an upset in anyway outside of the line favoring the Patriots. KC is the better team and not only do I not care, that Belichick and Brady are 23-0 against rookie QBs in Foxboro but Patrick Mahomes really doesn't care! The Kansas City Kid has been breaking all barriers surrounding the quarterback position as a first year starter. New England has everyone buying their stock after a blowout of the Dolphins and a convincing Thursday night win over the Colts. Who gives a crap?! Both of those teams combined would be +10 versus the Chiefs. Sure, Belichick got three extra days to prepare and they are at home but its not as though Gillette Stadium has been immune to losses early in the season. I learned my lesson last week when going against Mahomes, don't do it! If Jacksonville could not stop them then no one can but the Chiefs themselves. KC 34 NE 30
Parlay Play - UPSET SPECIAL EDITION
KC & Denver moneyline to win (+773) $5.50 to win $40.32
Tease Please
Ten point sweetheart teaser (+275) $10 to win $27.50
Buffalo +10 goes to +20
Buff/Hou Under 41 goes to Under 51
Panthers -1 goes to +9
LAC 0 goes to +10
Denver +7 goes to +17
KC +3 goes to +13
SF +9.5 goes to +19.5
Best of luck bettors!