YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 7 Picks
Back to five hundred as promised after last week. Week seven has some enticing bets and enjoyable matchups so let's dive right in.
Week 7 NFL Picks
Last Week: 8-5-1
Current Record (ATS): 35-35-3
Tennessee +6.5 LA Chargers (London 9:30am EST kickoff)
London games are weird. Blake Bortles is the best QB statistically in all of football in Europe, that's how weird they are. It's almost as if you enter the Twilight NFL-zone when playing in London. That is my biggest concern about taking anyone in this game. The recent Chargers team should finish this game up in three quarters if the recent Titans show up. LAC 27 Tennessee 18
Buffalo +7.5 INDIANAPOLIS
Indy would struggle to cover more than three points at home against the recent Bills, that play suffocating defense and cause havoc and capitalize on turnovers, even if that capitalizing is only via field goals. However, those are not the Bills they're playing. Josh Allen is injured and just avoided Tommy John surgery, that's a good way to handle your "future franchise" quarterback in his rookie year Buffalo. Now, thanks in part to injury and ineptitude the Bills offense looks as though it was assembled at a thrift store sale. Anyway, Nathan "Pick-six" Peterman is clearly worth at least six points for the other team so they had to bench him and bring in eight days deep in the playbook Derek Anderson. Here's an important number for this game, 740. It has been 740 days (October 10, 2016) since Anderson started and finished an NFL game. I think Indianapolis can cover at least 10 points against this offense the Bills have cobbled together from a lost and found box. Buffalo 16 Indianapolis 27
New England -3.5 CHICAGO
This has lock of the weekend written all over it; unless you think the Patriots come out and rest on their laurels after a big undeserved win over the Chiefs, which is possible. This game will be closer than it should be, courtesy of Khalil Mack. I'm imagining the Patriots down by two with about six minutes to go and Brady marches them down the field to score the game winning touchdown with just over a minute left on the clock and no one is scared of Mitchell Trubisky with a minute and two timeouts. Sorry Chicago, but you're gonna give away your third game of the season. NE 29 Chicago 23
PHILADELPHIA -5 Carolina
Two points too many here. If Philly loses this game outright, which is very possible thanks to Carolina's defense, it is officially time to start worrying about when they will jump out of this post-super bowl slump. Philly 24 Carolina 21
Detroit -3 MIAMI
Smelly, stinky, weird line of the weekend. Why? Why is a 2-3 dome team with questionable at best defense favored by a field goal over a 4-2 Dolphins team playing at home? One answer - Brock Osweiler. This line makes me suspicious so it's a stay away for sure. Detroit 27 Miami 21
Minnesota -3.5 NY JETS
Minnesota took their early bye week against the Bills. Another misstep like that will not happen this season and that means the Jets are not going to win. I'd expect Minnesota to stretch their lead out over the fourth quarter and a late Jets TD to makes it appear closer than it ever was. Minny 28 NYJ 17
TAMPA BAY -3 Cleveland
The mediocre bowl! May be amusing and entertaining but only if you like watching flawed football. Tampa has the much better offense but Cleveland has a much better defense. I like the Bucs to get Jameis his first W meal this season.
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WEIRD! TB 30 Cleveland 23
JACKSONVILLE -5 Houston
I have little faith in either of these squads, sooooo when in doubt take the points and the better QB. Jax 18 Houston 15
New Orleans +2.5 BALTIMORE
Another candidate for possible game of the day! #1 statistical defense vs. #1 statistical offense. We saw how the Jags "strong" defense fared against KC's amazing offensive arsenal but there are a few different factors at play here. New Orleans has always been a better indoor team then outdoor. Baltimore's defense has always been tougher to beat at home than on the road. Baltimore's only quality win is at Pittsburgh while New Orleans' only quality win is likely over Washington at home. I like that Sean Peyton and Drew Brees had an extra week to examine this Baltimore defense and scheme some plays with their expansive weaponry to magnify any chinks in the Ravens' armor. Running the ball is going to be key and I look for them to do it early and often. The run game will include the flare out and screen passes to Kamara in space and then Ingram will be the battering ram that gashes into the line. If they stick with that approach I think it will start to show effects in the mid to late third quarter. If Drew Brees is throwing the ball 45+ times in this game I do not think the Saints will win it. Baltimore 26 New Orleans 28
LA Rams -10 SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers just covered a 9.5 point spread against the Packers and should have won the game outright, they will not come close to winning this one but they will cover again. You can run on the Rams, especially on first down where they allow an average of over four yards per carry! CJ is no Jimmy G but he's competent enough to keep the 49ers within striking distance using Kyle Shanahan's tactics especially on a backdoor cover. LAR 33 SF 24
WASHINGTON -1.5 Dallas
Both of these teams have better than expected defenses. Both of these teams suck on the road (Arizona doesn't count Washington fans) and both of these team are better at home so logically Washington wins. Washington 20 Dallas 13
KANSAS CITY -6 Cincinnati
Possibly the best matchup of the weekend and Kansas City will want to bounce back at home in prime time. Cincy will keep pace with the Chiefs offense though so watch out for the upset from the Bengals who have been road warriors thus far (2-1 both comeback wins in fourth quarter). KC 35 Cincinnati 34
ATLANTA -6 NY Giants
This game sucks as a Monday night feature, so you might as well gamble on it to make it interesting. Saquon should run wild through this decimated Atlanta defense. If Eli were ever going to pick a week to tell all his doubting teammates to shove it with his play on the field, this would be the advantageous secondary against which to do it. Atlanta couldn't cover this six even if Deion came back to the dirty birds' DB core so teasing it up would make me really confident especially since it has already dropped to -4 and may move down even more before kickoff. Atlanta 31 NYG 28
Last week's starting amount: $350.43
Last week's results (week 6): +$36.29
Current balance: $386.72
Still earning some coin despite missing the big payout on the upset parlay last week. Lock of the weekend came through and the seven line ten point tease was a treat for sure. Bank on this week with some juicy options.
Locks of the Weekend
Washington -1.5 Dallas (-110)
Carolina +5 Philadelphia (-110) $10 to win $9.09
Upset Alert
I'm not committing to any upsets this week but here's some options if you're daring enough.
Sharps money says the Bears pull the outright win over New England but I'll believe that when I see it and I hope I do.
Cleveland is a +160 moneyline
Cincinnati is a +210 moneyline
NYG is a +170 moneyline
Parlay Plays
Carolina +5 & Washington 0 (+264) $10 to win $26.45
LAC, Indy, NE, Minny & LAR all win (+415) $5 to win $20.75
Tease Please
Ten point sweetheart has been kind to me so I'm sticking with it until it goes sour. (+275) betting $18.20 to win $50.05
Indy -7.5 goes to +2.5
NE -3 goes to +7
Carolina +5 goes to +15
Minnesota -3.5 goes to +6.5
SF +10 goes to +20
Washington 0 goes to +10
Cin/KC Over 58 goes to Over 48
The Jets or Over bet will be the trip ups here if it happens but hopefully we'll keep it rolling. Enjoy the weekend action!