YAC: Yards After Cash - NFL Week 9 Picks
This week brought us the first true evidence to separate contenders from pretenders, the wrap up of London games and the end of an era in Cleveland; an era no one will remember fondly but still the end of one. As we look ahead to week nine, let's breakdown which teams' season still have hope or are toss ups and which should start planning for 2019.
Let's Call it a Wrap Group
These ten teams are certainly not mathematically eliminated from post-season play. However, their performance thus far and/or the upward climb in their respective division, lead to the likely conclusion that they should just start examining their roster talent real closely over the second half of the season. First up, the entire state of New York can officially invest their time in the NHL from here on out. (I'd say NBA but the Knicks may suck worst of all NY teams.)
New York Jets (3-5)
Buffalo Bills (2-6)
New York Giants (1-7)
Cleveland Browns (2-5-1)
Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Arizona Cardinals (2-6)
Denver Broncos (3-5)
Oakland Raiders (1-7)
San Francisco 49ers (1-7)
Let's Flip a Coin (and still probably get it wrong) Group
These ten teams make up the middle pack and some are coin flips solely thanks to the mediocrity of their divisions, at least in present condition. My prediction of their respective coin flip indicates if they'll be in the mix come the final three weeks of playoff pursuit (Chasers) or if they'll fall back from the pack sooner than later (Fakers).
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2-1) - Chasers
Baltimore Ravens (4-4) - Chasers
Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) - Chasers
Miami Dolphins (4-4) - Fakers
Dallas Cowboys (3-4) - Fakers
Atlanta Falcons (3-4) - Fakers
Tennessee Titans (3-4) - Chasers
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) - Fakers
Detroit Lions (3-4) - Fakers
Green Bay Packers (3-3-1) - Chasers
The Front Runners
These are the cream of the crop at least as it stands now and frankly their playoff spot is theirs to lose from this point out. Sadly seven NFC teams will dwindle down to six come playoff time and some schlub of a squad in the AFC from the list above will sneak in as the sixth seed. My bet is the Bears fall apart over their strenuous second half schedule.
Los Angeles Rams (8-0)
Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
New Orleans Saints (6-1)
New England Patriots (6-2)
Washington (5-2)
Carolina Panthers (5-2)
Los Angeles Chargers (5-2)
Houston Texans (5-3)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
Chicago Bears (4-3)
Minnesota Vikings (4-3)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Mid-season playoff predictions
AFC:
1) Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
2) New England Patriots (12-4)
3) Houston Texans (10-6)
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1) that tie will end up coming in handy
5) LA Chargers (10-6)
6) Baltimore Ravens/Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) - really a toss up
NFC:
1) LA Rams (14-2)
2) New Orleans Saints (12-4)
3) Washington (10-6)
4) Minnesota Vikings (9-6-1)
5) Carolina Panthers (11-5)
6) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
NFL Week 9 Picks
Last Week: 10-3
Current Record (ATS): 54-41-4
Home team in CAPS, pick in bold, lines from bovada.lv as always.
Chicago -10 BUFFALO
This line opened at -8.5 and jumped another point and a half after the Bills announced their intention to start Nathan "Pick-six" Peterman due to an injury to Derek Anderson. That should tell you all you need to know. This Bills team, specifically it's defense, has a lot of pride but at some point this joke of an offense they keep putting out on the field needs to piss off the D enough to cause issues among the team, if they have not already. I think Chicago's defense will feast on Peterman's mistakes. Chicago 27 Buffalo 13
Pittsburgh +3 BALTIMORE
I still don't believe in the Steelers. They have two wins and a tie over Ohio teams, barely beat a mediocre at best Bucs team and crushed a slowly spiraling Atlanta squad outdoors. Baltimore is not much better but I believe in them at home and think their defense will be the difference and will once again limit the Steelers' chunk plays and hold them to field goal attempts. Baltimore 24 Pittsburgh 20
MINNESOTA -5 Detroit
Nothing says we're playing for right now like trading away your number one wide receiver, on the final day of the trade deadline, right? Granted, Detroit has some depth at the position and I certainly don't think they will miss too many steps with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. picking up Golden Tate's ten average targets per game. However, it just seems like a bit of a white flag from the Lions front office signaling that they don't see this year panning out and its time to start strategizing for the future. Pair that with Minnesota coming off yet another disappointing loss at home where they are only 2-2 thus far and it makes me a BIG fan of the Vikings this Sunday. Look for Adam Thielen to break the consecutive games with 100+ yards receiving record too! Adam Thielen is doing amazing things off the field too. Have you seen his newest hit drama series on NBC, New Amsterdam?
I mean that is definitely him right? Here take a closer look.
Yeah, it's him, for sure. It's kind of crazy that he could win Offensive Player of the Year and a Golden Globe in the same season. Where does he find the time? Detroit 20 Minnesota 30
Atlanta +1.5 WASHINGTON
Vegas may not believe in Washington but I do. They have a defense that just improved the secondary by adding the best named player ever Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who is also a top ten safety. Their receiving corps injuries certainly make it difficult to think they would blow anyone out but do not rule them out as a playoff caliber squad. At home, Atlanta is a mediocre team at best and on the road, let alone outside on the road, well, I like their chances even less. AD will continue to post impressive fantasy numbers against this porous defense and Alex Smith should have plenty of time to find open passing routes. Washington 28 Atlanta 17
CAROLINA -6.5 Tampa Bay
Fitz is back under center but he's proven time and again he's best from the bullpen. I expect Carolina's defense to get after him early and often while the Bucs continue their QB carousel. Carolina 35 TB 23
CLEVELAND +9 Kansas City
Chiefs will cruise over a rudderless Browns team that will continue to lack direction from and confidence in their coaching staff. KC 38 Cleveland 16
MIAMI -3 New York Jets
A total toss up. Both teams have banged up wide receiving corps. Neither have shown any consistency in their running game and neither QB inspires confidence either. When in doubt I take the points but would not touch this game with a 39.5 foot pole! Miami 20 NYJ 17
SEATTLE -1.5 LA Chargers
A lot of recent additions to the Seahawks bandwagon following a win at Detroit last week; why though, I'm not too sure. It's not like Detroit is even above average so why are the Chargers getting points coming off a bye week? The public money will be on Seattle this weekend, conversely, the smart money will be on the Chargers. Seattle 16 LAC 24
DENVER -2 Houston
Funny how five wins in a row can totally reverse a teams trajectory. Thanks to a Frank Reich overtime decision to go for the win over a tie, that ultimately gave Houston their first win of the season, the Texans have gone from life support to leading the AFC South...by 2 games! Five weeks ago they had one of the leading candidates for first coach fired, now analysts are talking about a playoff run and how smart a move it was to grab Demaryius Thomas before the trade deadline. Talk about a one-eighty! Also, this has to be the most interesting trade at the deadline, right? Two teams facing each other this weekend traded with each other. Denver sent Houston an additional WR weapon for its arsenal only to turn around four days later and have to face him. I thought this kind of silliness only happened in Fantasy Football and Madden leagues. For Thomas, it must be especially odd; he spends Monday and early Tuesday preparing for Houston defensive schemes. Then, he gets traded to Houston and is probably in turn, filling in Hopkins and Watson on what Broncos' schemes to expect. I wonder what the week was like for him? Did he have to leave Denver on Wednesday only to fly back there on Saturday? In today's technology driven world, you'd think he could have body cam skyped into all team practices and whatnot for three days from his Denver home right? Then just walk to the visitor locker room on Sunday and ride home with Houston after the game? I hope Sunday NFL countdown does a segment on what had to be his whirlwind week of back and forth travel, not that I'll watch it but it should be done. Houston 24 Denver 21
NEW ORLEANS -1 LA Rams
Many people are thinking the Rams undefeated run ends here but I don't think so. The Saints defense will not stop this high powered Rams attack even if Cooper Kupp is not fully healed. The Rams defense has been far from impervious but they have delivered several key stops at crucial times and have talent to hold teams to field goals with their bend don't break approach in the red zone. I only see the Rams losing this game if the Saints play patient keep away on their offensive drives and cash in with touchdowns over field goals. LAR 38 NO 34
Green Bay +6 NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots are flawed...in November! Let me say that again, because it bears repeating. It's NOVEMBER and the Patriots are FLAWED! I know they have injuries but so do most teams and they've never let that slow them down before now. Gronk is old, beat up and ssssllllloooooowwww. Gronk is so slow right now that if he and Kelvin Benjamin had a foot race the season would end first. The Bills defense shockingly played a mix of man and zone (no one plays successful zone on Brady - ask Pittsburgh) and were able to hold the Patriots offense to four field goal attempts on their first four drives inside the 35, one of which was missed. If the Bills had even a semblance of an offense they would have won the game. The Packers proved last week that they can shut down a talented offense on the road so I look for them to do that against this struggling Pats offense and I don't see Aaron Rodgers leaving any points on the field this week. I'd also set the over under on number of kicks being brought out of the end zone for the Packers at .5. Patriots 21 Packers 28
DALLAS +6.5 Tennessee
Three to four points too many here. Dallas is at their best at home and off rest, with a new wide receiving weapon they may actually pass for an NFL caliber offense now. Tennessee is an up and down team but they are in every game and never quit. Dallas wins an ugly and tight one on Monday night. Dallas 20 Tennessee 16
Last week's starting amount: $424.81
Last week's results (week 8): +$59.33
Current balance: $484.14 (+$284.14 overall)
I'm predicting that this is the week I lose money because all hot streaks must come to an end at some point, right? I'm assuming something stupid like a Panthers or Chiefs loss will blow all my bets because I am way overdue for one of those weekends.
Locks of the Weekend
Kansas City -9 Cleveland (-115) $25 to win $21.74
Carolina -6.5 TB (-105)
Upset Alert
Green Bay +6 New England (-120)
Green Bay +190 to win outright $20 to win $38
Parlay Play
All must win (+178) $22.50 to win $40.15
Vikings, Bears, Panthers, Chiefs
All must win (+707) $10 to win $70.75
Vikings, Bears, Panthers, Chiefs, Packers
Tease Please
Seven point teaser (+325) $19.36 to win $62.92
Minnesota -1 goes to +6
Carolina - 6.5 goes to +.5
Kansas City -9 goes to -2
New Orleans +1.5 goes to +8.5
Green Bay +6 goes to +13