NFL Season 2019 Warm Up

Only one week until the first Sunday of the NFL 2019 season kicks off. Before the first coin flip, parlay push, teaser bad beat and countless highlights of what helmet Antonio Brown wears each week I'd like to write the script for my 2019 season predictions.

Team Record Predictions

AFC East

New England Patriots: 11-5

Buffalo Bills: 10-6

New York Jets: 8-8

Miami Dolphins: 3-13

Wish I could say the Patriots dominance would end this year but while I remain hopeful that will eventually occur, it seems Brady's fountain of youth will continue to pair perfectly with Belichick's "Do Your Job" system of success. However, I do see the indifference in September continuing for New England, who basically treat the month as their actual preseason which is why I see two of their five losses coming in weeks one and four to Pittsburgh and Buffalo, respectively. Buffalo will be the surprise playoff team no one expected at season's outset. The Bills will benefit from the two Miami matches, at worst a split with NY and NE, and games against Tennessee, Cincinnati, Denver, NY Giants, Washington and I think a surprise Turkey Day win in Big D. The Bills always manage to win at least two games no one expects each season and this year their Thanksgiving trip to Dallas will cap their full season of defeating all their former Super Bowl spoilers from the NFC East.

The New York Jets are still a year away from completing the puzzle. Sam Darnold will take steps forward in Adam Gase's QB friendly system but his USC frivolity with unforced turnovers will continue to plague him as I think he ends the season with the most interceptions. Miami has fully decided to treat this season as a throw away. They basically started emptying the cupboard on the final roster cut deadline day, sending their best receiver and left tackle to Houston for future draft picks. I don't even know if Fitzmagic has enough juice left in his wand to make Miami matter even early on, which is his September Specialty (remember Tampa Bay last September? 3-1 Miami anyone?...No, No one is taking that).

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4

Baltimore Ravens: 9-6-1

Cleveland Browns: 8-7-1

Cincinnati Bengals: 4-12

Have you ever had the tiniest pebble in your shoe but because of where you are or what is going on you cant take your shoe off to get rid of it? Or ever had the thinnest of slivers underneath a fold of skin on your hand and just can't get it out? I think these situations describe the Steelers the past few years while dealing with the antics of AB and the distraction of Bell's holdout last year. They can deny those things impacted them at all but I saw a playoff-less Pitt coming a mile away last year and this year I think Pittsburgh plays with a palate cleansed. AB's absence frees up Ju-Ju to come into his own superstar status which he will thanks in part to Donte Moncrief anchoring as a strong second option for Big Ben. Pittsburgh's defense will also be much improved and may challenge for top five status in the adjusted DVOA when all is said and done. Winning their opener against New England will go a great deal to springboard their season in the right direction. Rather ironic, that it took losing two Bs to turn their team back into a Grade A organization.

The Ravens somehow lucked into the league's only home away weekly rotating schedule. Near or far, Lamar Jackson and the stable of Ravens RBs will revolutionize the meaning of "ground and pound." It's an odd thing to say but most teams hate playing that type of physical football for four solid quarters and it will wear on most teams some of whom will give up leads when the going gets too tough. Even in the playoffs the Chargers were starting to show leaks in the fourth quarter and the Ravens really just ran out of time and could not recover from early mistakes. Lamar will arguably be the best overall athlete when he takes the field in all but four weeks this year (Baker Mayfield x2 for Cleveland, Patrick Mahomes for KC, Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins for Houston) Also, good luck coming back on this Baltimore defense, they finished third in team defense DVOA last season and will likely maintain that if not improve upon it.

Cleveland is everyone's darling this season but I was picking their success before it was cool to do so. Last season I had them winning at least six games and they finished one better. Their reward is a rather difficult schedule for a third place division schedule that includes all AFC East and NFC West teams. So once again I'll zig while the rest of you zag on the Browns and I do not see them as a playoff team but they will keep their streak of tie games in a season going when they draw with Baltimore in week 16. This will ultimately be the reason Baltimore makes the playoffs and why Cleveland's playoff hopes come to an end.

Sorry Cincinnati fans but your team is a dumpster fire. Hopefully in short term order your new coach, Zac Taylor, can bring some of that Sean McVay magic he collected while being within 4 feet of McVay when he sneezed that one time, which as far as I can tell, is the sole reason he has this job.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6

Houston Texans: 9-7

Indianapolis Colts: 7-9

Tennessee Titans: 4-12

The English language doesn't have a word to describe this division's possible permutations so I'll use the closest descriptor which would be "total wildcard." Based on Tennessee's preseason I could honestly see them going 1-15 (they play Denver, TB and Oakland so they'll win at least one of those) but last year they were also in playoff hunt until the final game of the season and they get a valuable weapon back in TE Delanie Walker but I do think this is Mariota's swan song, or would it be Duck song in his case? If Tennessee ends up in the top three draft picks next year it should be interesting if they replace one Oregon QB with another (Justin Herbert). Indy lost Andrew Luck as we all know and while they could be in worse shape they are hardly the Super Bowl trending pick with Jacoby Brissett under center that they were with Luck in his place. An improved defense, talented backfield and a sharply skilled play-caller and coach in Frank Reich will keep the ship from totally capsizing, Colts 2011 style.

That leaves the teams that should be the top two contenders barring the wildcard nature happening. If I had a second team to cheer for it would be Houston and for several reasons:

1) I've always been a JJ Watt fan and his cameo on New Girl singing about hot dogs only reinforced how cool I think he is.

2) Deshaun Watson is easily my favorite QB of the past decade.

3) DeAndre Hopkins is arguably the best WR of my generation thus far and I only put him slightly above Larry Fitzgerald because he's always put up big numbers, even with poor QB play, whereas Larry's production always took a hit when the QB quality declined.

4) A Buffalo Bills mascot looks a lot like a Houston Texans mascot. Colors are not far off, either.

Unfortunately, I see Houston as still needing to do plenty of offensive line work and that means heightened injury risk for a likely constantly running Watson. While I see Nick Foles as a marked improvement at quarterback, he's not going to be able to solely strong will a team to the playoffs like Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers. However, having De-Bortleized, the Jags offense should be able to complement an aggressive and reinvigorated Sack-sonville defense that should be leading the Jags to a division title and home playoff game.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 13-3

Los Angeles Chargers: 9-7

Oakland Raiders: 6-10

Denver Broncos: 5-11

What's my next big surprise prediction? The Chargers will take a slight step back. Why do you ask? Well, do you remember how impacted the Steelers were by a hold out RB situation that dragged into their season? Do you remember how the Patriots completely negated Joey Bosa and shredded the LA defense in the divisional playoff round? How about the six out of seven one score game wins last season? I do and they all add up to a distracted locker room, a blueprint for beating their D and an unsustainable streak of luck. Two of those six wins involved Tennessee trying but failing to win with a two point conversion rather than draw in London and LA completing a two point conversion to beat the Chiefs. It's awesome when those things break a team's way and the Chargers were due for some good breaks but there's little evidence to support that it would continue to break their way. I see 2019 as return to normal mediocrity and struggles to close games for Anthony Lynn's team.

Denver will continue to struggle as well and the schedule makers did not do them any favors either. They play seven games against playoff teams from last year and two challenging road games at Minnesota and Green Bay. Oakland will improve...on offense at least but they're still a year or two from being a full Jon Gruden redesign. Meanwhile, Kansas City is just going to be faster and more dangerous on offense while getting younger and hopefully at least a little better on defense. This should be Kansas City's year and it seems like the Chiefs themselves and/or Andy Reid's curious game management choices are the biggest challenges to overcome.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5

Dallas Cowboys: 9-7

New York Giants: 7-9

Washington: 3-13

Philly finishes a season with Wentz at the helm and they'll even host a playoff game or two. Dallas will regret Zeke missing even one game because if they lose that game it may be the difference between a post-season berth and being home for New Year's Eve. Washington is a mess and by mid-season will be deciding if parting ways with Jay Gruden will help or hinder their ability to get the first overall pick. The most improved group, possibly

league wide, will be the New York Football Giants! Saquon's impact speaks for itself but Eli will show he had one last gallon of gas in the tank all along or Pat Shurmur's play calling will at least make it seem so. I do not think Daniel Jones will see meaningful playing time unless Eli gets injured. The biggest concern for Shurmur should be who is catching the ball regardless of who is throwing it. I can't seem to remember a preseason where the Giants weren't consumed by a major injury or a string of injuries at the wide receiver position. Also the defense has to be better than last year, right? I mean how could it be much worse?

NFC North

Chicago Bears: 10-6

Green Bay Packers: 10-6

Minnesota Vikings: 9-7

Detroit Lions: 6-10

I don't see Aaron Rodgers missing a third year of playoffs regardless of who is coaching the Packers. He's going to drag this offense of unproven weaponry to ten wins if it takes every last ounce of energy he has. Minnesota hitched their wagon to Kirk Cousins and they are finding out exactly why Jay Gruden and Washington were so noncommittal about him. It will be doubly sour for Minnesota when their season comes down to yet another home game against Chicago for the right to the playoffs but Chicago will end up wrapping up the division instead. Speaking of the Bears, Chicago seems to be a favored pick to regress this year and I just don't buy into that. Sure, maybe they won't win 12 games again but they're clearly the best defense in the NFC and the offense should only become a more comfortable fit during Nagy's second year at the helm. The biggest question mark for folks seems to be Mitchell Trubisky. However, similar to the Jags and Bills it makes sense that if the Bears can just get average to above average play and avoid turning the ball over from the QB position they should be in most if not all games and thus have a great deal of success this season. The Lions shockingly will continue to muddle in mediocrity and the only one I feel bad for is Matty Stafford. Matt Patricia will see some defensive improvement and that will likely be enough to keep him around for year three.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 12-4

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7

Carolina Panthers: 6-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10

Unlike a certain spinach consuming, snake oil peddling, deal with the devil making geriatric who shall remain nameless, Drew Brees seems to be properly aging for a forty year old and thus experiencing a bit of a decline. Good thing he's surrounded by the best arsenal on offense he's ever had. The Saints will also get their revenge game over the Rams in week two but that's why I would watch out for their week 1 Monday Night matchup with Houston (upset action brewing). The Falcons are a true mystery to me but I'm not alone because all their fans feel the same way. Sure they could return to 2016 form but they might also just stay the same team they've been for the last two years. Dan Quinn's days of dominant defense were left in Seattle, he forgot to pack them when he moved to the A-T-L. Matt Ryan has indeed continued to age as has Julio, as has Freeman, as has Trufant, as has Matt Bryant. Matt Bryant also retired because he realized he was 44 and wasn't Adam Vinatieri or Tom Brady but then the Falcons convinced him to come back for another season. He's been a consummate pro so he should be fine but if it were any other position convincing someone to comeback would likely not end well. Football is punishing and you have to be invested to play well. But at end of the day Bryant is just booting balls through the uprights.

The Panthers and Bucs feel and look like 6-10/7-9 ceiling teams to me but on very different trajectories. I see Tampa's needle pointing up with Bruce Arians at the helm. If he doesn't turn Jameis' career around, he'll replace him with a better QB and given time he's shown he knows how to get the right someone to take care of his defense. Carolina seems like a speeding vehicle that spun out of control after a slight bumper tap and is now leaning on a precipice. Ron Rivera is in the driver's seat right now and if he gets booted that could send Cam and McCaffrey careening into the abyss. However, if they keep Ron and he moves the wrong way or tries to lean on the wrong side of the car the same result could happen. Certainly, it's possible, Cam and McCaffrey could hop out of the back seat and drag the car back from the brink but Cam would need to be 100% and I don't think he is, nor will he ever be again due to injuries. Sadly, even SuperCam has his kryptonite. Also to really drive home this car metaphor the Panthers don't have much in the trunk to depend on with the exception of Luke Kuechly and he too is injury prone, despite having his entire being protected by CPI home security. It all seems like Carolina is headed to the junkyard for whatever remainder of time Ron, Cam and Luke have left. I don't see them being relevant until being re-invented around McCaffrey as the centerpiece of a new roster.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: 12-4

Seattle Seahawks: 9-7

San Francisco 49ers: 7-9

Arizona Cardinals: 3-13

Kyler Murray is no Baker Mayfield. Kliff Kingsbury may have the perfect alliterative name for a Stan Lee Superhero alter ego but he's not the next Sean McVay. Both are over hyped one year wonders and Kingsbury will win a college conference title before he wins 6 games in a single NFL season. San Francisco won't be happy when their season still ends in December but they should feel they are headed in the right direction as long as Jimmy G stays healthy all season. They will challenge for a wildcard early after starting 7-3 or 6-4 in the first 11 weeks before fading with a tough final six week stretch but playoffs on the horizon next year for Frisco.

The Rams will cede the first place playoff spot to New Orleans due to the Saints revenge win in Week 2 but they will easily take care of the NFC West division title. The Seahawks will take the week five game against the Rams but they will also split the series with San Fran and drop games against Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore and Philly. That puts Seattle in a four team log jam at 9-7 for the sixth playoff spot with Dallas, Minnesota and Atlanta. I see Dallas taking the sixth spot and no one wanting to face them in the playoffs after playing their best ball in December and once again saving Jason Garrett's job.

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1) Kansas City Chiefs

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

3) New England Patriots

4) Jacksonville Jaguars

5) Buffalo Bills

6) Baltimore Ravens

Wildcards: NE over Baltimore & Buffalo over JAX

Divisional: KC over Buffalo & New England over PITT

Conference: KC over New England*

*New England needs a playoff bye to be a champ

NFC

1) New Orleans Saints

2) Los Angeles Rams

3) Philadelphia Eagles

4) Chicago Bears

5) Green Bay

6) Dallas

Wildcards: PHILLY over Dallas & CHICAGO over Green Bay

Divisional: NO over Chicago & Philly upsets LAR

Conference: Philly breaks NO hearts for a third year in a row

Super Bowl: Andy Reid leads Kansas City to the promised land, using his former franchise as the last ladder rung on his climb to the top.

Enjoy and as always, wager at your own risk!