Yards After Cash - Week 1

Two posts in as many days?

I am indeed back! Also, this is a real "back" not like the college football team that's "back" every other weekend only to fade the next one. Every week I'll preview the approaching NFL weekend action and give you my picks for each game. I'll also roll out the Keylime Ledger for all football bets including some favorable college and/or Premier League matchups throughout the season.

Week one, always a dangerous place in which smart bettors always practice patience and measured action. Usually most seasons I'd say play the waiting game to see who these teams are going to be is the best move, at least in September, but there's only 17 weeks of regular season action so you have to make the most of it. So patience be damned!

All lines are based on current live odds on MyBookie.com (Enroll and play today). Home teams in all caps and my picks are in bold.

Confidence Picks

MIAMI +6.5 Baltimore

How does that song go? "I don't know much, but I know they want TuuuuuuA." Miami is all in for a "secret rebuild" this year, but don't tell their coach, likely because he'll be gone next year too. If trading away you star offensive left tackle and a key receiving option away less than a week from the season kick off doesn't scream tank mode what does? Tank for Tua, Hapless for Herbert or Down for Brown whatever the campaign, Miami is all about it and even Fitzmagic's September success won't change that. Lamar and company should easily wear down any team in early weeks with their overly physical run game. It won't be pretty, it won't be a blowout but the score will make it seem closer than it ever truly was. Baltimore 24 Miami 8

CAROLINA +2.5 La Rams

Some people think the Panthers are a playoff team. Some people think liver and onions is delicious. Some people think Rocky 5 was a good movie. Some people think Trump is a good president. Some people think Scientology makes sense. My point is some people think all kinds of silly things but it doesn't make them true. The Panthers are a Cam injury away from a 1 or 2 win season; with him they may get to 7 wins, maybe. Carolina 12 La Rams 21

San Francisco +1 TAMPA BAY

I like both of these teams to surprise this season and win at least 7 games but San Fran gets the better of Tampa in Arians' Florida debut. SF 26 TB 21

Cincinnati +9.5 SEATTLE

Seems a little high for a Seattle team that may be content to protect a one score lead late with a punishing run game to kill clock. However, I trust nothing about the new coached, tired offense, old defense Bungles. Cincinnati 7 Seattle 28

The No Clue but I gotta pick one crew

Atlanta +4 MINNESOTA

Four points seems generous for what Kirk Cousins has shown so far but I could also see Minnesota's defense outscoring both offenses in this game so who knows. Atlanta 20 Minnesota 21

Washington +10 PHILADELPHIA

If this line was anywhere below 9 I'd be on Philly but Washington's defense seems like it could keep this low scoring. I also need proof Philly's offense can put up points a plenty before handing them double digit lines. Washington 15 Philadelphia 23

Stay Away! For one reason or another just STAY AWAY!

Tennessee +5.5 CLEVELAND

The last time I would have trusted Cleveland laying 5.5 points there was not even a franchise in Tennessee. I need proof, not hype. Cleveland 19 Tennessee 17

ARIZONA +2.5 Detroit

You can avoid this game because...ummm...who cares about it? If Arizona's shiny new offense actually works people can just chalk at least part of it up to an average at best Detroit defense. If it doesn't work, we all get to spend the next six days hearing about the growing pains of a new coach and QB in a new system. Detroit 28 Arizona 24

Indianapolis +6.5 LA CHARGERS Are the Colts going to stay competitive without Andrew Luck? Most, if not all signs point to yes, but I still want to see it happen. Who better to surprise than a sometimes September sleepwalking squad in the Chargers. LA over performed last year. Will they come back to earth this season? Indy shocks some survivor pool players 27-26 over LA.

Ultimate Underdogs

Buffalo +3 NY JETS

I BILL-IEVE my team is going to be the surprise squad in the AFC that few people and teams see coming. Led by a strong and often unappreciated defensive unit, the Bills will be to 2019 what the Bears were to 2018. They get a stellar year on defense, Josh Allen plays above his rim most of the season favoring the long ball as his weapon of choice and they even get a lift from a rookie RB in Devin Singletary. Also if Allen doesn't perform better I might be the only person who would not be surprise if Matt Barkley comes in and rights the ship, he showed flashes playing for an injured Allen last year. This is the start of a special saga in Western New York, welcome to the first chapter. Buffalo 22 NY Jets 12

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 Kansas City

My favorite of two home dogs this week! Sacksonville is back y'all! Fresh off a Bortles cleansing summer Jacksonville is going to ride their defense back to playoff glory. This will also be due, in part, to the smart play from veteran Nick Foles under center not to mention a resurgent Leonard Fournette, running like its 2017 all over again. Mahomes struggles in his first week back and finishes this game with more turnovers than touchdowns. Don't worry fantasy owners, he'll be back to true form soon enough. Jacksonville ends KC's plans for a deep undefeated season run before they even get started. Jacksonville 30 KC 24

NY Giants +7.5 DALLAS

Don't sleep on Saquon or you will be sorry! Zeke takes the first half to find his rhythm and right around the time Jerry is wondering why he ponied up the dough, he'll rip off a 50+ yarder for the go ahead touchdown and Dallas survives with a late surge. NY Giants 21 Dallas 24

Pittsburgh +5.5 NEW ENGLAND

I think the new look Pittsburgh Steelers are aiming to host a coming out party in the Patriots home, Kansas City 2017 style; which oddly enough is the last time the Pats opened the season hoisting up a championship banner in Gillette Stadium. New England will be onto Miami in Belicheck's mind by the 4th quarter. Pitt wins a stunner that sends us all up that hopeful path of "maybe the Patriots are finally done." The same path that always hits a brick wall dead end by early October, when will we learn? Probably never. Pittsburgh 38 New England 24

Houston +7.5 NEW ORLEANS

Hopefully New Orleans starts off slow like the last few years because that extra half point and their tendency to do so are my biggest two reasons for grabbing the points. A healthy Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are my reasons three through five. Houston 27 New Orleans 28

OAKLAND +2 Denver Its a shame only West Coast watchers, Oakland and Denver fans will get to see this game...on second thought nah that's probably for the best. If Antonio Brown is suspended for this game it's likely the beginning of the end of his time in Oakland. This is hilarious for many reasons, one of which, that's high on the list, is he has yet to even play a single down as a Raider! LOL! AB should stand for Adult? Barely! Oakland finds a way to win with their other weapons though and a surprisingly stingy defense spoils Flacco's opening night. Denver 13 Oakland 21

Last Year Regular Season Record: 67-53-5 (52% winning picks)

Season Starting amount: $100.00

Week 1 amount wagered: $36.00

Locks of the Weekend

None - too many unknowns

Parlay Play

Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, LA Rams to win (+250) $16 to win $40

Upset Alert

Buffalo +3 (+128)

Jacksonville +3.5 (+155)

or make it an Upset parlay for +485

Tease Please

Seven point teaser (+300), $20 to win $60

Green Bay +10

Atlanta +11

Baltimore +2

LA Rams +4

Seattle -2.5

Welcome back Sunday fun days and as always wager at your own risk!