Yards After Cash - Week 2
Week one went fairly as expected. I may have been too brutal in my low bar expectations of Carolina and Cincinnati and I was no where near brutal enough on Miami who is attempting to revolutionize the way one tanks. On Sunday the dolphins said "Hey 76ers we see your process and raise you what will be called 'the shutdown,' from hence forth."
In week two we all have a tendency to over react to what we saw from teams in week one. I saw a lot of rust for some, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, NY Jets, Chicago and Arizona top that list. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the Giants, along with the aforementioned Flop-fins of Miami, were the prime examples of dreadfully repugnant play. I don't think any team is defined completely by one week but man its gonna be hard not to bet all I have on New England to beat Miami by more than 17.5 this week.
All lines are based on current odds on MyBookie.com (Enroll and play today). Home team in caps, my picks in bold.
Last week results: 9-6
2019 Season total: 9-6
Indianapolis +3 TENNESSEE
I believed in Indy last week and they almost pulled off the upset I predicted but in the end their defense was too gassed to stop an overtime opening drive my LA. I have no reason to believe they won't continue to be beyond feisty and more than any team wants on a weekly basis. Jacoby and Mack Attack win their first game of 2019. Indy 23 Tennessee 17
La Chargers -2.5 DETROIT
Who blew it better? Detroit or NY Jets? These Lions are the only kings of the jungle that lack a killer instinct. LAC 31 Detroit 20
NY GIANTS +2 Buffalo
It took about three quarters longer than I expected but the Bills circled the wagons at the last possible moment and stormed back from the hole they dug themselves into. Josh Allen, despite the careless turnovers, showed real confidence and control of the offense. He was calling audibles at the line based on clear looks at the defense, and a talented defense at that. This will still be a sophomore growth season for Josh but I expect it to trend upward most weeks. Buffalo is going to be a legit wild-card contender. LETS GO BUFFALO! NYG 13 Buffalo 28
Arizona +13.5 BALTIMORE
Kliff and Kyler expended three quarters trying to figure out Matt Patricia's defense. At that rate they should be able to score on Baltimore, eh maybe, the third time they play. Make no mistake about it, Lamar is sending a message to the entire league "Pretty good for a running back huh?" People talk about Aaron Rodgers' chip on his shoulder, you don't think Lamar carries all the criticisms and doubters words with him? He's going to show off his arm all year especially with the way the Ravens' schedule shapes up following Arizona's visit: @KC, Cleveland, @Pitt, Cincy, @ Sea leading to a bye week. If they can steal a win @ KC they realistically could be 7-0 going into their bye. I think 5-2 is more realistic but we'll have a better idea about their true potential after week 3. Arizona 10 Baltimore 34
New England -17.5 MIAMI
This line would have be at 21.5 before I'd debate not taking the Patriots and that would only be because of backdoor covers and Belichick's likelihood to enjoy the idea of allowing this to be a squeaker solely for the reason of messing with the betting public. NE 41 Miami 15
Dallas -5 WASHINGTON
Dak is going to continue to prove he's worth a mega millions QB contract, at least until he gets it anyway. He and Cooper will keep hooking up against an overmatched Washington secondary. Dallas 33 Washington 13
PITTSBURGH -3.5 Seattle
The Steelers are unlikely repeat bed crappers two weeks in a row but I also don't like that pesky extra half point so I'm leaning Seattle, despite their secondary being torched by Andy Dalton for a career high day of 400+ passing yards. Just stay away from this game, neither team knows who they are yet. Seattle 18 Pittsburgh 21
Kansas City -7.5 OAKLAND
I don't see a difference in KC's defense and while their offense is still clicking no Tyreek Hill could make it easier for teams to keep pace. I see Oakland covering late thanks to Carr's arm and Waller's hands. KC 37 Oakland 34
San Francisco +1 CINCINNATI
The 49ers were gifted two touchdowns by Jameis Winston's pick sixes. Cincinnati showed beyond spunk in almost toppling Seattle in Seattle last week. They fell short and that will be a theme for their season. They also have started the season with a few too many visits from the injury bug. Cincinnati 23 SF 24
LA RAMS -2.5 New Orleans
If New Orleans doesn't come in and lay the smack down in this game after whining all off season about the call that cost them a super bowl then they better shut up once and for all. I like getting points when a team already has the revenge factor on their side. This will be the game of the day, it will also feature at least two pass interference challenge flags. LAR 28 NO 31
GREEN BAY -2.5 Minnesota
This game is truly a toss up and a definite stay away. Green Bay probably isn't as defensively stout as the Bears inept offense made them look last week. Minnesota is likely not the unstoppable juggernaut running the ball that Atlanta's defense allowed them to be all game either. For determining the winner, when in doubt take the better quarterback. As for the spread game though, the team who's week one identity is closer to the truth should come out on top but I don't know who that will be so if I have to choose I'll take the points. GB 19 Minny 17
Chicago -2.5 DENVER
It is doubtful the remedy to Mitchell Trubisky's troubles lie in mile high thin air elevations while facing the defensive coach most knowledgeable about his flaws. The Bears former DC Vic Fangio will make life rough for Mitch and da bears as they stumble their way to a win in Denver. Chicago 17 Denver 16
HOUSTON -6 Jacksonville
Poor Nick Foles! Poor Jacksonville fans! Poor Gardner Minshew! The Jaguars quietly kept within a score of KC until the third quarter despite the Minstache taking over late in the first quarter after Nick Foles' broken shoulder blade. Barring a miraculous start to Gardner's professional career that no one sees coming the Jags will likely settle into 7-9/8-8 mediocrity. Houston, meanwhile, just needs to hope Watson can continue to outrun his pursuers, so he too doesn't end up as the third QB in the cupboard in the AFC South. Houston almost caught New Orleans napping and snuck out of the French Quarter with a W but they somehow managed to leave Brees too much time when they started their own drive with less than a minute to go. It was WILDLY ENTERTAINING MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL! Houston winds up in the win column this time 27-17 over the Jags.
Philadelphia -1 ATLANTA
Can I get a lifeline on this game? At worst Atlanta is a garbage time, make scores look closer than the games actually were, loser of a team (a la NYG of 2018) at best they win high scoring shootouts when their opponents don't run the ball enough and control the clock to keep "Matty Ice" (once a cool nickname that now just describes his fantasy heat index) on the bench. Philly 30 Atlanta 21
NY JETS +6.5 Cleveland
WR Quincey Enunwa is out for the season due to a neck injury for the second time in his short career. QB Sam Darnold has mono and is expected to miss multiple weeks. LB C.J. Mosley, who was apparently single handedly stopping the Bills offense, has still on practiced due to a groin injury. RB Le'Veon Bell is having MRI tests done on his shoulder. Newly acquired WR Demaryius Thomas has not practiced with his new team yet due to a hamstring issue. WR Robby Anderson was a ghost in week one. In other words this is about the par expectations for your average J-E-T-S fan, so says my wife. Good luck piecing this team together for 16 more weeks Gase, its gonna take a lot of duck tape and plenty of willpower. On the plus side, at least if you just show up for your two games against Miami you probably won't finish last in the division.
All the Jets' mess aside, this game line is still puzzling. It opened at Cleveland -2.5 then Darnold's kissing disease news dropped and the line spiked four points! So here is what Vegas expects me to believe:
The Browns, who were favored by 5.5 at home last week against the Tennessee Titans (who will be more aptly named the Titanics before season's end - start out on top and then suddenly you're a submarine) and got destroyed by 30 points, those Browns are still better by almost a field goal, ON THE ROAD, over the Jets. Then just because Sam Darnold is out the Browns are over a touchdown better? WHAT HAVE THE BROWNS DONE TO DESERVE SUCH FAITH?
They couldn't cover 5.5 points at home, so now I'm supposed to believe they can cover 6.5 on the road? The Jets defense is better than Tennessee's. They have Le'Veon Bell who is five times the weapon lumberjack back Travis Henry will ever even dream he can be. Trevor Siemian is a competent backup quarterback. The Jets got a kicker this week who knows how to kick a football. Until the Browns prove they are worthy of any of this blind faith, that is bordering on Catholic levels, they get none of it from me. Jets 23 Cleveland 16
Season Start: $100.00
Last week results: +$20.00
Current Balance: $120.00
Bets: 1-1-0
The four teams to win parlay pulled through, narrowly with Seattle, but Atlanta stunk up my teaser.
Locks of the Weekend
New England giving anything less than 30 points to Miami
Upset Special
Indy +3 (+100) & Indy moneyline (ML) +140
Oakland +7.5
New Orleans +108 (technically its an upset since they are not favored)
Parlay Play
Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Ravens must win (+580) $20 to win $116.00
Tease Please
Seven point teaser (+475) $10 to win $47.50
Colts +10
Chargers +5
Bills +5.5
Cowboys +1
Balt/Ari Over 39
LAR/NO Over 45
Enjoy and as always wager at your own risk!