Yards After Cash - Week 3

We're now two weeks into the season so lets look at some relevant gambling trends so far:

Favorites are 12-18-1 against the spread (ATS) so conversely Underdogs are 18-12-1 ATS

Home Favorites are 5-13-1 ATS

Away Favorites are 7-5-0 ATS

Straight Up (SU) Stats:

Home teams are 14-16-1

Home Favorites are 11-8-0 so conversely Away Underdogs are 8-11-0

Home Underdogs are 3-8-1 so conversely Away Favorites are 8-3-1

In the small 32 game sample we have so far this season, the stand out trends are picking away favorites straight up to win and there is a slight edge when siding with Underdogs against the spread. Now that we know all this I can tell you week three means most of this is meaningless. Week three brings wacky things with 0-2 teams occasionally pulling a shocker, 2-0 teams seemingly stepping off the pedal to their fans' dismay and at least one game ending weirdly, which would include a tie. So exercise caution, I'm keeping things rather low stakes since I just don't trust wacky week three.

All lines are based on current odds on MyBookie.com (Enroll and play today). Home team in CAPS, my picks in bold.

Last Week results: 7-8

2019 Season total: 16-14

Week 3 Picks

Cincinnati +6 BUFFALO

My Buffalo Bills need to continue winning to show this is no singular September upswing like in Falls past. The typical Bills start strong in September, win a game or two no one expects (next week vs. New England is a prime upset spot) and then begin losing games they should not, if they were indeed a quality playoff contender. Losing this game to Cincy or dropping one of their Miami matchups are the kind of unforgivable sins that have doomed past Bills' seasons to mediocrity. Two loss teams are often at their peak of dangerous during week three, which will be a theme throughout this column. A two loss team that enters their week three game with a "backs against the wall" mindset typically has enough grit to fight out of the proverbial corner and pull the upset. With AJ Green sidelined, Joe Mixon hobbled and an underachieving defensive unit Cincinnati doesn't has enough ammo to pull the upset. I sensed a strong wind of change in Western New York since the outset of the season and so far, so good. Let's keep this wagon rolling, Josh and Sean! Bills 27 Cincy 13

Miami +21 DALLAS

Everyone see the newest Miami logo?

It would be funnier if Miami were not already beyond tanking. Dreadful is an understatement for them. The front office should be ashamed. They have sold off all but the kitchen sink at this point and are pushing themselves into the realm of total mockery. Poor Brian Flores. Meanwhile, Miami's opponent on Sunday, Dallas, is hoping to contend for the Lombardi Trophy. The Sunday scoreline will show the different directions each franchise is headed by halftime, at the latest. Dak and Zeke likely get at least a quarter off in this game. Dallas 42 Miami 10

Denver +7.5 GREEN BAY

Recall a short while ago when I shared that 2-0 teams are most dangerous heading into this week with their backs up against the wall? Denver will be that team on Sunday. After allowing a W to slip through their fingers at home last week, in the dying seconds as Eddy Pineiro's kick split the uprights, they are itching to close a game out and get their first win to keep their season from being on the brink of over before even seeing October. Green Bay has impressed with opening wins over their top two division rivals. They have achieved both wins without their offense really clicking, other than occasional flashes. Truly, the Packers' defense has been the biggest reason for starting 2-0. I can see their offense continuing to struggle and if they don't get off to a quick start, like last week, Denver should sneak out of Lambeau as victors. Early mistakes by Green Bay will give Flacco short fields to work with and the Denver defense will show why Vic Fangio finally got his head coaching chance as Denver wins a tight one 15-13.

INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 Atlanta

Do I believe in the Colts?

Yes, I do!

Do I believe in Atlanta?

Would you?

There's certainly not much to have faith in. The Falcons needed a two inch short fourth down play to beat an Eagles team that lost nearly half their key offensive starters to injury before halftime last week. Let's also not forget, Atlanta is RARELY the same team away from home, even when in a different dome. Marlon Mack is a game time decision but the Colts run game will be fine, even if he is out. Indy 27 Atlanta 23

KANSAS CITY -6.5 Baltimore

This game is a crap shoot. It could turn into a race to 40 points or may just come down to who gets the last offensive possession. My decision process is this: Baltimore's defense is far better than KC's and the Baltimore offense is good enough to at least keep serve with KC. If the Ravens D can keep this a one score game into the fourth I like Lamar's chances at revenge in Arrowhead. KC 32 Baltimore 34

Oakland +7.5 MINNESOTA

The Kirk killers are already out in full force and rightfully so. Cousins is not an elite QB, he's never been one and never will be one. Sadly, the Vikings front office paid him like one and now the fan base is mad the money didn't make him one. If you buy a cheap sandwich, take a bite and spit it out because its not good, then walk back into the same sandwich shop and give them more money for the same sandwich, its still going to taste the same. Case Keenum was the first sandwich and Kirk Cousins is the second one, you just paid more, ALOT MORE, for the same sandwich Minnesota. Congrats, you finally caught up with everyone else on being aware of that. However, here comes an opponent, Oakland, that is capable of making you forget all about that price tag, at least for one game. This has all the makings of a week where Kirk showcases his best, in an effort to cover up the truth. He did the same thing in his signature "You like that" game in Washington and I expect he'll do the same here. Between him and Dalvin Cook they should have no trouble moving the ball on Oakland and I expect the Viking defense may get on the scoreboard too while Jon Gruden grinds his teeth on the sideline. Don't worry Jon, the release of AB by the pats makes you seem ahead of the curve, for once. Man, for some reason, I could really go for a good sandwich right now. Minnesota 31 Oakland 13

NY Jets +22.5 NEW ENGLAND

Remember the theory around 0-2 dangerous teams? What team could possibly feel more "backs against the wall" than the New York Jets? They were heavily favored to make a playoff run in the AFC, but since the season started they have lost two quarterbacks, two defensive stars and two games. At this point, their fans just assume they'll be 0-6 and that maybe, they'll have a chance at a win in Florida on week 8 or 9, when they play Jacksonville and Miami respectively. However, is it truly out of the realm of possibility that the next QB taken at the same exact spot as Tom Brady in the draft could announce his presence in the league by beating the golden boy himself? What is to say that three months from now we're not all talking about how Luke Falk will be the next Jets QB and rumors are swirling around where Sam Darnold's landing spot via a trade will be during the offseason? Weird things happen in the universe and sometimes all it takes is a slight alignment of circumstances. Look at how Brady's career started; wouldn't it be a bookend for this torch pass to be part of it's end? The Jets will not win this game but Falk has an arm I remember being impressed with at Washington State, so as Dr. Seuss might put it "If Minshew can do covers in two, why not Falk plus twenty two, too? So true! NY Jets 14 New England 28

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 Detroit

Did Detroit really win that game last week or did the Chargers find a way to revert back to their old selves that traditionally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory? The Chargers had not one but two touchdowns nullified last week by penalties, they missed field goals and had turnovers in the red zone. They served the game up to their hosts at Ford Field in every way imaginable and the Lions still barely pulled out a win. So while I do not see them beating Philly on the road I also don't see the walking dead wide receiving corps of the Eagles being able to exploit the Lions suspect secondary. This game will be closer than any Philly fans want it to be. Philadelphia 24 Detroit 20

Carolina -2.5 ARIZONA

No Cam so lots of Christian but ultimately too much Kyler will be the difference. Carolina is headed down the tubes quickly and the end seems nearer and nearer for Riverboat Ron and Super Cam. Arizona 27 Carolina 17

NY Giants +6.5 TAMPA BAY

The Daniel Jones era begins on the road against a mediocre at best Bucs defense. The rookie quarterback may be surprised when this game does not match his pre-season speed experience but frankly if he can avoid the Eli-esque turnovers and silly sacks Giants fans may have something to rejoice about. Meanwhile, on the other sideline, Jameis Winston gave Bucs fans a faint hope that Bruce Arians' may yet be able to rescue him from the QB junk heap when he led them to a win over Carolina in Charlotte on a short week. Can Jameis do it twice in a row or will turnovers rear their ugly head again? TB 26 NY Giants 18

Houston +3 LA CHARGERS

Have the Chargers reverted to old habits? Missed field goals, penalties nullifying scores or key first down conversions in a close game that should have never been close certainly seems like their classic recipe to underachieving. That formula was in full effect last Sunday in Detroit. Houston may not play the most mistake free football around but they know how to win when given chances, which is why they'll continue to let LA drown themselves. Houston 27 LA 21

SAN FRANCISCO -7 Pittsburgh

Another dangerous 0-2 team who is down their starting quarterback. After this game Pittsburgh is home for five of their next six games plus a bye week in the middle but those games are against Cincinnati, Baltimore, LAC, Miami, Indianapolis and LAR. If they don't win this week and against Cincy to get to five hundred heading into their first Baltimore battle it's not beyond reasonable that the Steelers' season would already be over. Mason Rudolph might be a misinformed MAGA misfit but he showed a handle of the offense last week and San Fran's secondary is similar to Seattle's skill level so he should be able to find throwing lanes. Pitt 24 SF 20

SEATTLE -4.5 New Orleans

Teddy or Taysom? New Orleans is in trouble either way. I expect Seattle to sell out to stop Kamara and the run game and dare the backup QBs to beat them. Spoiler alert! They won't, but they will cover. New Orleans 23 Seattle 27

La Rams -2.5 CLEVELAND

The Rams have played at Carolina as 2.5 point favorites and hosted the Saints favored by 2.5 and now they head into Cleveland as, surprise, surprise, 2.5 point favorites. Vegas does not respect the Rams enough and I'm gonna keep making money off it until they auto correct. The Browns are not a great football team, not even a good team. They have great pieces on their roster but putting them together and creating a game flow where one side of the ball compliments the other is how you become a great team. Until Cleveland can do that with any kind of consistency, against good teams they will continue to be a pretender. LA 33 Cleveland 14

Chicago -3.5 WASHINGTON

Chicago has faced two top defensive units to start the season. They figured out the flaws of Denver in just the nick of time, to escape with a win but were not as lucky against Green Bay, to start the season. Mitch Trubisky better showcase his skill and growth against this very flawed Washington secondary or all the worries in the windy city will be spot on. Chicago 30 Wash 20

Last week start: $120.00

Last week results: +$37.50

Current balance: $157.50

Locks of the Weekend

Wisconsin -160 ML to win

Georgia v. Notre Dame Under 57.5

La Rams -180 ML to win

Upset Special

Denver and Baltimore ML to win (+1120) $10 to win $112

Parlay Play

See the Upset Special bet above

Tease Please

Seven team seven point teaser (+600) $15 to win $90

Wisconsin +3.5

Denver +14.5

Detroit +12.5

Baltimore +13.5

Indy +6

Dallas -16

LA Rams +3.5

Enjoy and as always wager at your own risk!