Yards After Cash - Week 4
Not quite as wacky a week three as I presumed so when will the weird week hammer drop this season? Could be Week 4. If Thursday night's game is any indicator that is a good bet. At first glance I couldn't like GB -4 more but all day Thursday I could not shake my gut feeling that Philly was going to win that game. I talked myself into giving the four points in many ways. Green Bay had beaten two solid teams and three good defenses. Their own defense was taking the ball away at an alarming rate, leaving short fields for Aaron Rodgers and company to strike paydirt while Philly was doing just as good a job giving up the ball and allowing points off turnovers. It seemed like a total, logical, slam dunk which is precisely why it did not work out that way. In the NFL when something seems too good to be true or too easy it usually is especially this early in the season when teams are still establishing identity.
I will not be ignoring my gut again, especially on Thursday night games which have their own weird weekly funk anyway. I also will be laying low this week because there are just too many unknowns and tight lines for my liking. It is important to have games like Thursday nights kick my butt because it reminds me that:
All lines are based on current odd on MyBookie.com (Enroll & play today). Home team in CAPS, my picks in bold.
Last week results: 10-4
2019 Season total: 26-18
Week 4 Picks
Minesweeper spreads
ATLANTA -4 Tennessee
LA RAMS -9 Tampa Bay
Seattle -5 ARIZONA
INDIANAPOLIS -7 Oakland
These games all look a half or full point too many or too light for me to truly like either side. I don't trust Atlanta laying more than 2.5 even at home and I trust Tennessee about as much as I could throw Derrick Henry which is not far because he's a beast. However, for picks I'm taking Tennessee because of this stat: Atlanta's record against the spread in their past 12 AFC opponent matchups is 0-12! They're also 1-11 straight up. I'm on all the underdogs here because I just don't trust any of the favorites to hit these marks. The Rams have covered two of their three wins by a half point in each (the Saints game is an anomaly due to the Brees injury). Seattle couldn't even win at home against those same Brees-less Saints and Arizona's game plan every week may truly be based on backdoor covering. Indy missing TY Hilton worries me about their ability to put up 30 points even against the rudderless Raiders who will find a way to put up 20 points.
LAy Confidential
Kansas City -6.5 DETROIT
La Chargers -14.5 MIAMI
BALTIMORE -7 Cleveland
Sure I'm nervous about that half point and really just that large spread in general from LA but I'd rather swallow twenty points minimum before taking Miami. KC giving less than seven to a Lions team who for all intensive purposes could have a record of anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0, seems suspicious its not more but my gut has no concerns with this slam dunk. Baltimore is trending upward, Cleveland is about to unravel. When the Browns lose this game and fall to 1-3 here's their next four weeks: @SF, Seattle, BYE, @ NE. Even that BYE week may result in a loss, as in a loss of coach, especially if they enter it as a 1-5 team which I'd fully expect at this point.
Identities Still Unknown
NY GIANTS -3 Washington
HOUSTON -4 Carolina
Jacksonville +3 DENVER
CHICAGO -1.5 Minnesota
NEW ORLEANS +3 Dallas
Cincinnati +3.5 PITTSBURGH
I'll ride the Danny Dimes bandwagon over the deadskins, but I'm only buying weekly tickets not signing up for the season pass just yet. While I'm touring the unknown QB islands I'll take a trip on Kyle Allen's cruise liner and Gardner Minshew's moped this week too. I like the monsters of the midway more than the purple people eaters' defense but I trust Kirk Cousins a bit more than Mitchell Trubisky. New Orleans at home on a Sunday night against a Dallas team who showed an awful lot of rust in the first half against the Dolphins last week should not be getting three points so I don't see how I can turn that down. Pittsburgh showed life last week in flashes but they also were given five turnovers and still could not find a way to win. Cincinnati meanwhile really could be 2-1 if they could finish games.
Game of the Weekend
BUFFALO +7.5 New England
This will absolutely live up to the hype it has been receiving. Its going to be a defensive battle on both sides of the ball and I would not be shocked if a defensive unit was the highest scoring group on the field when the final whistle blows. However, lets take a step back for just one second, do we know if either of these teams are good? They are both 3-0 but that comes against opponents that are a combined 1-14 to start the season! We can't even draw any comparisons to their one common opponent (NY Jets) because they faced different QBs in their respective matchups and certain defensive key stars were absent for New England's game too. New England has the pedigree so they obviously get credit for being a good team despite the cake walk schedule they get handed every season. The Bills still have a lot and I mean A LOT to prove. Belichick will not let our aged RB, Frank Gore beat us. I expect him to stop the run and make Josh Allen prove he can win with his arm alone. Josh will need Beasley, Brown, Jones and Knox to get open and provide clear targets for him early and often so he can settle into the game against plenty of man coverage looks. New England plays man coverage in over 68% of defensive sets so Buffalo will have to win individual matchups in multiple parts of the field to win this as a team. However, that man coverage heavy reliance sounds ripe for a passing attack and coincidentally enough the Bills have yet to truly roll out their deep passing attack and I would not be shocked if that changes on Sunday starting with the first play from scrimmage.
I expect this Bills team to push the Patriots more than they every have in Brady's tenure. The defense should be playing lots of press coverage and relying heavily on its start Linebacker core to shut down the short and intermediate passing game the Patriots offense depends on so much. There better be plenty of flags for pick plays in this game if the refs are doing their job because the Pats love those plays and have quite literally built a dynasty on those plus a deep threat WR or Gronk being on a seam route behind the pressing defenders. Even if the Bills do not win this game this is the beginning of the changing of the guard in the AFC East. Brady is 42 and yeah Belichick will die on the sideline in his ragged half sleeve hoodie but until he shows me another QB who can be as accurate at Brady ALL THE TIME they're never gonna be the unstoppable powerhouse they have been. Sean McDermott has been building a culture in Western New York since his first day and it has finally started sprouting from the foothold foundations laid over two years ago. Josh Allen is still young and may steal the show or he may make the mistake that costs Buffalo the game. The worst part about a Bills loss in this one would be that they are hardly facing the Patriots at full strength. 1) They'll be missing key contributors for the game or at least for long stretches due to snap limits from injury, 2) Even if some guys play they will be doing so not at full health (Edelman, Gordon, Burkhead, Hightower, etc.). 3) Brady is 42!!! Too many people are high on the Bills being able to pull the upset which I really don't like so obviously I am rather confident they wont but if this turns into the wacky week anything is possible. The scenario in which the Bills win means the defense gets to Brady early and often and leaves him feeling very uncomfortable about his legs getting hit, its the tried and true way only real way to beat him. GO BILLS! Let's make sure this game is within reach when the fourth quarter starts and pull the upset 20-17.
Last week start: $157.50
Last week results: +$95.00
Current balance: $252.50
Money, money, money, money...MONEY!!!
Crushed a +600 seven team teaser, big time bucks, only wish I had bet more! But as mentioned above this week is not about spending big but rather being reserved and smart and wait for a future sweet spot to present itself.
Locks of the Weekend
KC -6.5 is the best bet on the board
Upset Special
Nebraska +17.5 Ohio State
I can't shake the gut feeling I have of this being a killer upset. There is no logical reason from current bodies of work to think Nebraska can cover let alone win this game straight up but if the NFL has weird weeks College Football has weekly weird games. Ohio State tends to be one of those teams that slips here and there (Purdue won 49-20 last year as twelve point underdogs in a similar spot to Nebraska). I ignored one gut feeling this week already and I'm not gonna make the same mistake twice.
I also like Jacksonville and Tennessee to win straight up (+540) this Sunday $10 to win $54.00
Parlay Play
Nine team ML parlay (+460) all teams must win $10 to win $46.00
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Manchester City
Chelsea
Baltimore
LA Chargers
LA Rams
Kansas City
Tease Please
Seven team six point teaser (+825) $14 to win $115.00
Baltimore -1
NY Giants +3
LAC -9.5
Indianapolis -1
Kansas City -1
Seattle +1
Cincy +9.5