Yards After Cash - Week 6
Apologies to my 6 loyal readers, I needed a bye week after the hectic mess week 4 unleashed. Now I'm locked in on what should be a fun and financially fruitful week six. First let's start with a quick recap of the week that was in week five.
Have you ever noticed a trend across games in an NFL weekend? Most recently the common trends are "Wow, the kickers are atrocious" or "I guess you really can't touch QBs anymore" or "Who the hell knows what a catch is anymore." Week five's trend made it the Week of the Peanut Punch. Several years ago, Charles "Peanut" Tillman popularized the punching chop move to cause fumbles during his days as a Chicago Bears cornerback. This move, while not a new technique, was on full display across at least five NFL games on Sunday including across the pond in LONDON! None was likely more impactful than Marlon Humphrey's punch out on Ju-Ju Smith Schuster to help the Raven's set up for the game winning field goal in overtime. That singular play could be the difference between the Ravens or Browns winning the AFC North at 9-7 since that appears to be the ceiling for that division. Another trend of this young season has been trying to figure out what is pass interference and what is not, THANKS JANUARY 2019 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP REF CREW! Thank you for blowing the most obvious call in history and thus opening the door to this new challenge flag ability that slows down games even more and has brought the same level of clarity to P.I. that the definition of a catch brought to the game. So far through five weeks less than 10% of pass interference challenges have been overturned. Hopefully that trend ends and soon!
The trend I'm expecting week 6 to show is the first phase of separation Sunday matchups. Some teams are teetering on the edge of obscurity and others need one more step to jump into the conversation of contender and this week will provide those moments.
All lines are based on current odd on MyBookie.com (Enroll & play today). Home team in CAPS, my picks in bold.
Current 2019 season record: 35-23
Week 6 Picks
Carolina -2.5 Tampa Bay (in LONDON, 9:30am kickoff EST)
Carolina with an injured Cam Newton was 0-2, they're 3-0 with Kyle Allen doing very little. I still think they are yet to hit their best as they would be only with a 100% healthy Cam under center. Tampa Bay is up and down and I don't see the roller coaster hitting a peak against this Panther's defense. Carolina 32 Tampa Bay 23
Seattle -2.5 CLEVELAND
Cleveland opened the season being embarrassed at home by the Titans. They responded by beating the hopeless and hapless Jets. Cleveland then loses at home to the Rams, somewhat due to beating themselves but follows that up by beating Baltimore thus ending about half of all survivor pool players' seasons that week. Only to travel west and be beyond humbled by San Francisco. Patterns would dictate that they win this game since it's time for their backs to once again be against the wall but I just do not believe in this Browns team. The Baltimore win is the outlier in their season so far. The Browns played an above average game and the Ravens did not show up to tackle at all that day. Throw that game out the window and they have beaten the Jets which took a good three quarters to secure and that is the truest encapsulation of the Browns. Here is what the Browns have:
-An inexperienced and thus overwhelmed Head Coach who should solely be the Offensive Coordinator
-A quarterback who is still developing which is much harder to do when you're overrated and every defense is making it their weekly mission to completely silence
-A real pass rush that rarely gets to play out games because they're typically behind early and often
-Arguably the most talented wide receiving duo in the league who can't get the ball enough because Baker is running for his life most of the time, occasionally due to his own mistakes
-They also may have a head coach who is also the defense coordinator of the Giants. Not sure how no one noticed him pulling double duty for five weeks. Although in fairness, Freddie did say he's been working 90 hour weeks, someone just needed to follow up with a question of "where?"
These are the below average Browns, don't be misled. This weekly yo-yo will eventually run out of steam and when it does it will be completely unraveled and hanging low, because that's how gravity works. Seattle 29 Cleveland 17
Houston +4 KANSAS CITY
A star of the separation matchups, Houston needs to win a big game to show they are not pretenders but the same can be said for Patrick Mahomes proving he can win "big" games (he's 1-5 across playoff and primetime games). All story lines and numbers (O/U 55.5) point to this being the Sunday shootout. Gambling logic would follow that this game will end 14-17 or something stupid like that as I watch my teaser burn due to it. If the game goes as it should this should have shades of last year's KC/LAR score fest last year. Can the Texans continue to keep Watson upright? If so the stats show success; Watson has thrown five touchdowns in all games he has not been sacked, but sadly there are only two of those instances in his career. KC's struggles to stop the run and really stop anyone from scoring continue. Houston 37 KC 34
MIAMI +3.5 Washington
One team may win and the other may well be on their way to not winning this season. If this ends in a draw it may be the most fitting tie because likely neither team will deserve the win. I have some belief that a coach being fired instills a culture shock at least in the short term that typically gets a team ready to play at the top of their potential so I see a narrow Washington win 20-17.
Philadelphia +3 MINNESOTA
The better team getting points? Yes please I'll take it all day. Philly's defense is getting healthier and it's only a matter of time before their offensive weapons get back from injury. Minnesota was able to showcase an above average passing game against possibly the worst secondary in the league in the Giants so I'm guessing Kirk will look more like he did in the Bears game against the pressure the Eagles bring up front. Philly 27 Minnesota 17
New Orleans +1 JACKSONVILLE
I cannot make sense of this line at all which immediately tells me I need to stay away. I don't know if Jalen Ramsey's return against Teddy "Two Gloves" is worth the two points of respect this line is off by or if Vegas just simply isn't buying the Saints being the same team away from the Superdome. NO 24 Jax 23
Cincinnati +11.5 BALTIMORE
Baltimore better prove this week that they belong in the discussion as a challenger to the AFC top teams. The loss to Cleveland cannot be repeated to an even worse team here. Lamar needs to show growth and the ability to beat an underrated Bengals secondary to the spot with his throws. The Ravens defense needs to make a statement too. If Joe Mixon has a big day or they allow Andy Dalton and a walking dead WR corps keep this game competitive they will continue to be the weakest point of this team. Baltimore 30 Cincy 14
LA RAMS -3 San Francisco
Yet another separation Sunday matchup. This is the week San Francisco needs to show they are for real. Conversely, the Rams are seemingly staring an 0-2 division record in the face if they lose this game which is a deep hole to climb out of even with the two Cardinal games still to come. I can't see Sean McVay dropping back to back division games, especially when he's had ten days to prepare and SF is off the short MNF week. SF 23 LAR 28
ARIZONA +2.5 Atlanta
Two slightly similar teams with their stock potential pointing in different directions for sure. Atlanta has an aged QB, Arizona's rookie QB shows promise but has yet to prove much. Arizona's offensive minded young coach, Kliff Kingsbury, is expected to make the air raid attack a staple of the new age NFL while defensive minded Dan Quinn will be lucky to have a seat on the airplane home if Atlanta loses this game. If this isn't a kitchen sink, desperation game for the Falcons, I
don't know what would be. Even if they win this one, Atlanta's next four games are home for the Rams and Seahawks, at New Orleans and at Carolina, not exactly the most promising stretch for a turnaround. Going from 1-4 to 2-8 is not out of the realm of possibility for Atlanta and if that's the case home for the holidays could have new meaning for Dan Quinn. Atlanta 27 Arizona 23
Tennessee +2 DENVER
The Titans and Broncos may be the exact same team. Here's my case: Both have tougher defenses then they get credit for, an underachieving QB, talented RBs, at least one established and reliable pass catcher (Walker/Sanders) with some young WRs still proving themselves (Davis/Sutton) a head coach in his first head coaching position/tenure and both have been beaten due to brutal special teams situations (the Bears beating Denver in week 2 and the Titans kicker, Cairo Santos, missing four field goals last week) The commonalities are voluminous. Tennessee is due for a win, mostly because they lost last week. Tennessee 21 Denver 17
NY JETS +7.5 Dallas
Sam Darnold is back just in time for it not to matter. He'll win enough games to keep the Jets draft pick high enough to not help them improve in future years. The few late wins will also make for a debate over whether or not he and Gase deserve another year at the helm. Dallas desperately needs an impressive win to at least soften the scrutiny around them. However, the same criticisms will apply after this win, that they have not beaten anybody. A win would make them 4-0 against teams with a combined record of (2-13) while 0-2 against the 4-1 Packers and 4-1 Saints, thus the critics will not be silenced, no matter the margin of victory. Dallas 31 NYJ 13
LA CHARGERS -5.5 Pittsburgh
Devlin Hodges sounds like a stage name for an actor or the suspect of a large scale heist, and if the Steelers third string QB can beat the Chargers in LA during primetime it may pass for a heist because no one is expecting that. The Chargers are certainly capable of choking away their chances at a repeat playoff appearance. They need to start winning these easier games on their schedule because three of their next five are against playoff teams and another is at Oakland, whom they are a game back of in the division race. Pittsburgh 17 LA 27
GREEN BAY -4 Detroit
No Davante Adams means Detroit will need to focus on stopping the run and make the unproven Packers receivers beat them. It seems strange to put the pressure of winning the game back on Rodgers but he can't throw and catch the passes so that is the best formula or success against Green Bay right now while Adams is sidelined. This game is yet another separation matchup. If the Lions can win this game many people, myself included, will need to take their bid for an NFC North crown seriously. The Packers have plenty to prove as well. Green Bay has played impressive opening halves and they've played sensational second halves too just never both in the same game. They need to play consistently for four quarters and then start stringing consistent games together to truly become the top team in the NFC. I'm buying low on the Lions and taking them for upset in Lambeau. GB 20 Detroit 21
Week 4 start: $252.50
Week 4 results: +$30.00
Current balance: $282.50
I cannot apologize enough for the Nebraska +17 gut feeling two weeks ago, turned out it was just some indigestion from too much sushi that day. However, you're welcome for the upset special of Tennessee and Jacksonville. I know it saved my weekend two weeks back and I'll look to keep rolling now. I had a hefty sum on the Patriots covering -17 and sweated that out so I'm sticking to the smaller lines this weekend, my stomach can't take the large line stress.
Lock of the Weekend
Dallas -7.5, Dallas -340 ML, pretty much all things Cowboys
Upset Special
Eagles & Titans portion of an Eagles, Titans, Cowboys ML parlay (+520) $10 to win $52.00
Parlay Play
See above
Tease Please
Four bet, seven point teaser (+200) $25 to win $50.00
Texas +17
Texas v Oklahoma Under 83
Dallas -.5
KC v Houston Over 48.5
Six team, seven point teaser (+475) $20 to win $95.00
Carolina +4.5 (in London)
Philly +10
Dallas -.5
Seattle +4.5
New Orleans +7
Detroit +11
Enjoy and as always wager at your own risk.