First and Then: NFL Week 1
I'll share the First thing you need to know Then share my rapid reactions to the week’s NFL action. I’ll include updates on my preseason bold predictions and a weekly low-light in my Delay of Blame section.
First:
Thursday Night Football is still a bad idea
Thursday games will continue to be garbage quality compared to the rest of the weekly games. The Falcons and Eagles made sure to start this trend with an overly long (thanks in part to a weather delay) penalty ridden, injury filled train wreck we've come to expect from Thursday night football. They had a whole off season to prepare for that game and it was downright difficult to watch so I can't wait to see what teams with three days preparation can offer up. Bring on Baltimore and Cincinnati, there no better pairing to try and exceed the penalty mark Philly and Atlanta just set.
And Then:
Opposite Ends of the Spectrum
A few teams started their 2018 NFL season by announcing their candidacy for Super Bowl 53 champion with impressive performances, the loudest being the Kansas City Chiefs. The ten point win is deceptive on the scoreboard as the second half was truly never close. Tyreek Hill ran circles around and more importantly past the Chargers defensive and special teams units. Patrick Mahomes posted an impressive 15 of 27 completions for 256 yards and four touchdowns but he also was not tested much by a defense that looked out flanked and stunned from the first snap. Kansas City hit the gas early and often and benefited from the classic Chargers' foibles: dropped wide open and crucial passes (Benjamin and Williams being the worst offenders), turnovers, silly coaching decisions (chasing 2 point conversions in the first half really?). The classic Chargers twist on this is doing all of these things while also dominating time of possession and leading in total yards and first downs. Basically I'd like to swap my Chargers AFC West winning pick to the Chiefs as I've finally learned that the Chargers are just the Browns of the west coast.
Trending at the very opposite end of KC on that spectrum, as I expected, are my Buffalo Bills. They did manage to score 3 points so I missed on the shut out prediction but it will happen at least once this season, mark my words. The Bills looked worse than I thought and I picked them to go 3-13! If they play that way every week this season, 0-16 is well within reach. I don't think they will play that poorly nor face that level of talent on defense and sloppy weather every week but I think we're well on our way to fighting the Cardinals for the top draft pick of 2019.
Aaron Rodgers is really good at football
Bent, broken, bumped or whatever condition his knee was in it didn’t stop him from scoring 24 points in just over twenty minutes of game time to beat a Bears team that managed to junk punch their fans one more time. Speaking as a fellow junk punching team fan you do start expecting and predicting them but it never makes it hurt less.
Bold Prediction Updates
Well Houston did not sneak up on the Patriots, in fact New England’s defense did most of the sneaking. They frustrated Deshaun Watson with compressed pockets and very few opportunities to escape. It was no secret coming into the season that the Houston offensive line was weak but Watson's mobility was supposed to sometimes make up for or hide those issues. However, the Patriots very rarely allowed him to run using a variety of zone linebacker sets and spy coverage to bottle him up. They also did what they do best and took away his best weapon, DeAndre Hopkins. He still had eight catches for 78 yards but most of that came later in the second half while down by multiple scores. I'm not selling my shares in the Texans, in fact I might even buy some more if the price drops this week but they need to rebound next week, especially if the Titans are without Mariota (elbow) on top of losing Delanie Walker (dislocated ankle), possibly for the season. The Texans should then win their next four if they want to be the playoff caliber team their roster is capable of producing. That would include wins over the Giants (Houston's home-opener), the Colts (who's o-line might be as bad as, if not worse than, their own), the Cowboys (who will likely still be searching for a wide receiver) and the Bills (who suck something awful as we already covered). This would have them at 5-1 heading into a critical matchup at Jacksonville. Stay tuned on Houston for now.
I was not right about the Browns beating the Steelers but I also wasn't wrong about them not losing to them either. A hard fought and earned tie with their division rival shows they are a team on the rise and playing with some inspired energy and belief. I say they earned the tie because while they fought back in regulation, they also blew at least two opportunities to win the game. Late in the fourth quarter with twenty three seconds on the clock the Browns were eight yards from their kicker's field goal range and on a first and ten they threw a deep sideline fade that was deservedly intercepted. They had been running the ball with efficiency in the second half. The correct play call would have been to run the ball, quickly reset at the line, throw a quick in or out or slant route, quickly line up and spike the ball then attempt the kick. Granted, this would have been no gimme of a kick as the torrential downpours were making every play interesting with ball control issues. Their second blown game winner was the overtime field goal attempt that was blocked; thanks to everyone on the left side of the line seemingly taking that play off and not blocking. Old habits die hard and the Browns losing is one of the oldest habits in the history of mankind, if I'm not mistaken, but they will get there and I'm still holding to my 5-10-1 record prediction.
Fitzy give the Saints fits
As Dirk Koetter said "Fitzmagic is alive and well!" If you missed my prediction of this a month before the season started check it out here! If there was someplace I could bet on Ryan Fitzpatrick starting more games for the Buccaneers than Jameis Winston this season I would undoubtedly be all in! While I still think the Bucs have a six to seven win ceiling they could just be the sleeper few saw coming. They next play two home games. First up, the Eagles who looked anything but unbeatable this week, followed by Pittsburgh who may be bringing the QB with the most interceptions in the league into that game. If Ryan Fitzpatrick gets them to 3-0 or even 2-1 can Koetter really justify benching him? Especially if he keeps putting up star level stat sheets as is his custom this early in a season. If trends from my previous article about Fitzy hold true by November Tampa Bay will be giving him somewhere in the neighborhood of twenty million to win less than eight games for the next couple years.
Delay of Blame:
The first but not likely last delay of blame penalty goes to the NFL owners, commissioner and Competion committee for their short sighted and ill conceived “weight rule” tweet to roughing the passer penalties.
Any over/under guesses on how many roughing the passer penalties we're going to see this season? We've had ten thus far over 14 games and most of those were the result of the new protective parameter that defenders must not land with their body weight on the passer or drive them into the ground. The full "body weight" section of the rule reads:
"A rushing defender is prohibited from committing such intimidating and punishing acts as “stuffing” a passer into the ground or unnecessarily wrestling or driving him down after the passer has thrown the ball ... When tackling a passer who is in a defenseless posture (e.g., during or just after throwing a pass), a defensive player must not unnecessarily or violently throw him down and land on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight. Instead, the defensive player must strive to wrap up the passer with the defensive player’s arms and not land on the passer."
In other words if you don't wrap your arms around the quarterback like you're hugging him and place him on the ground likely after you hit the ground first you're going to be called for this penalty. I'll predict right now that this penalty will impact at least two playoff games and a baker’s dozen of regular season games also. Don't get me wrong, I am all for eliminating the hits like this one Andrew Luck took from Shawn Williams, which are dangerous and unnecessary. However, a quick google search tells me Ben Roethlisberger weighs only thirty pounds less than Myles Garrett, who was flagged for this penalty when he tackled Big Ben while Ben was trying to escape from his grip to run away and make a play. Had Garrett not taken him down the play would have continued and who knows what could have been the result in the Steelers favor. It sucks that CTE and injuries impact so many players in this sport but it is a contact sport and players are becoming more informed about the risks they are taking when choosing to play the game. Why are we attempting to change the fabric and nature of a game adults are choosing to play while making tons of money? Is there a risk? Absolutely! Should players be informed about that risk early in life before playing and continuously updated as more information is discovered from research? 100%! Should the culture around "head-hunting" be changed? Yes, it badly needs to be. BUT at the end of the day the quarterback is a football player like everyone else; so unless you're going to switch to flag football or two hand touch on the designated passer then just stop these ridiculous attempts to feign concern about player safety. Looking at you NFL owners and commissioner. If you care about player safety get rid of Thursday football games and stop talking about adding more games to the season, for starters!
Check back in on Friday for my Week 2 picks and the opening of Keylime's NFL ledger wagers.